Author: Luna Tjung
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 0557602483
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 135
Book Description
This study presents a Business Intelligence (BI) approach to forecast daily changes in 27 stocks’ prices from 8 industries. The BI approach uses a financial data mining technique specifically Neural Network to assess the feasibility of financial forecasting compared to regression model using ordinary least squares estimation method. We used eight indicators such as macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, political indicators, market indicators, market sentiment indicators, institutional investor, business cycles, and calendar anomaly to predict changes in stocks’ prices. The results shows NN model better predicts stock prices with up to 92% of forecasting accuracy.
The Art and Science of Predicting Stock Prices
Author: Luna Tjung
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 0557602483
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 135
Book Description
This study presents a Business Intelligence (BI) approach to forecast daily changes in 27 stocks’ prices from 8 industries. The BI approach uses a financial data mining technique specifically Neural Network to assess the feasibility of financial forecasting compared to regression model using ordinary least squares estimation method. We used eight indicators such as macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, political indicators, market indicators, market sentiment indicators, institutional investor, business cycles, and calendar anomaly to predict changes in stocks’ prices. The results shows NN model better predicts stock prices with up to 92% of forecasting accuracy.
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 0557602483
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 135
Book Description
This study presents a Business Intelligence (BI) approach to forecast daily changes in 27 stocks’ prices from 8 industries. The BI approach uses a financial data mining technique specifically Neural Network to assess the feasibility of financial forecasting compared to regression model using ordinary least squares estimation method. We used eight indicators such as macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, political indicators, market indicators, market sentiment indicators, institutional investor, business cycles, and calendar anomaly to predict changes in stocks’ prices. The results shows NN model better predicts stock prices with up to 92% of forecasting accuracy.
Superforecasting
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331
Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Introduction to Financial Forecasting in Investment Analysis
Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452392
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
Book Description
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461452392
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
Book Description
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
How can I get started Investing in the Stock Market
Author: Lokesh Badolia
Publisher: Educreation Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Self-Help
Languages : en
Pages : 63
Book Description
This book is well-researched by the author, in which he has shared the experience and knowledge of some very much experienced and renowned entities from stock market. We want that everybody should have the knowledge regarding the different aspects of stock market, which would encourage people to invest and earn without any fear. This book is just a step forward toward the knowledge of market.
Publisher: Educreation Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Self-Help
Languages : en
Pages : 63
Book Description
This book is well-researched by the author, in which he has shared the experience and knowledge of some very much experienced and renowned entities from stock market. We want that everybody should have the knowledge regarding the different aspects of stock market, which would encourage people to invest and earn without any fear. This book is just a step forward toward the knowledge of market.
The Signal and the Noise
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0143125087
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 577
Book Description
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0143125087
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 577
Book Description
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Stock Prices and Monetary Policy
Author: Paul De Grauwe
Publisher: CEPS
ISBN: 929079819X
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 22
Book Description
The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.
Publisher: CEPS
ISBN: 929079819X
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 22
Book Description
The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.
Forecasting Stock Prices
Author: Luna Tjung
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 0557601118
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 83
Book Description
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 0557601118
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 83
Book Description
Gaming the Market
Author: Ronald B. Shelton
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471168133
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 234
Book Description
Die Spieltheorie betrachtet Entscheidungen als "Schachzüge" in einem Spiel, dessen Ausgang von den Entscheidungen aller Spieler bestimmt wird. Diese Theorie wird hier erstmals auf Investmentgeschäfte am Finanzmarkt angewendet. Nach der Definition der "Spielregeln" und der "Spieler" wird, basierend auf Formeln der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung, ein Spielmodell entwickelt, das die Rentabilität von beliebigen Finanzaktionen wie Aktienkauf und -verkauf vorhersagt.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471168133
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 234
Book Description
Die Spieltheorie betrachtet Entscheidungen als "Schachzüge" in einem Spiel, dessen Ausgang von den Entscheidungen aller Spieler bestimmt wird. Diese Theorie wird hier erstmals auf Investmentgeschäfte am Finanzmarkt angewendet. Nach der Definition der "Spielregeln" und der "Spieler" wird, basierend auf Formeln der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung, ein Spielmodell entwickelt, das die Rentabilität von beliebigen Finanzaktionen wie Aktienkauf und -verkauf vorhersagt.
On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills
Author: Roy Henriksson
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781021216878
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781021216878
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures
Author: John F. Ehlers
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118045726
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 274
Book Description
Cutting-edge insight from the leader in trading technology In Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures, noted technical analyst John Ehlers continues to enlighten readers on the art of predicting the market based on tested systems. With application of his engineering expertise, Ehlers explains the latest, most advanced techniques that help traders predict stock and futures markets with surgical precision. Unique new indicators and automatic trading systems are described in text as well as Easy Language and EFS code. The approaches are universal and robust enough to be applied to a full range of market conditions. John F. Ehlers (Santa Barbara, CA) is President of MESA Software (www.mesasoftware.com) and has also written Rocket Science for Traders (0-471-40567-1) as well as numerous articles for Futures and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazines.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118045726
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 274
Book Description
Cutting-edge insight from the leader in trading technology In Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures, noted technical analyst John Ehlers continues to enlighten readers on the art of predicting the market based on tested systems. With application of his engineering expertise, Ehlers explains the latest, most advanced techniques that help traders predict stock and futures markets with surgical precision. Unique new indicators and automatic trading systems are described in text as well as Easy Language and EFS code. The approaches are universal and robust enough to be applied to a full range of market conditions. John F. Ehlers (Santa Barbara, CA) is President of MESA Software (www.mesasoftware.com) and has also written Rocket Science for Traders (0-471-40567-1) as well as numerous articles for Futures and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazines.