Testing for Random Walk Coefficients in Regression and State Space Models PDF Download
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Author: Martin Moryson
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642997996
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 326
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Book Description
Regression and state space models with time varying coefficients are treated in a thorough manner. State space models are introduced as a means to model time varying regression coefficients. The Kalman filter and smoother recursions are explained in an easy to understand fashion. The main part of the book deals with testing the null hypothesis of constant regression coefficients against the alternative that they follow a random walk. Different exact and large sample tests are presented and extensively compared based on Monte Carlo studies, so that the reader is guided in the question which test to choose in a particular situation. Moreover, different new tests are proposed which are suitable in situations with autocorrelated or heteroskedastic errors. Additionally, methods are developed to test for the constancy of regression coefficients in situations where one knows already that some coefficients follow a random walk, thereby one is enabled to find out which of the coefficients varies over time.
Author: Martin Moryson
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642997996
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 326
Get Book Here
Book Description
Regression and state space models with time varying coefficients are treated in a thorough manner. State space models are introduced as a means to model time varying regression coefficients. The Kalman filter and smoother recursions are explained in an easy to understand fashion. The main part of the book deals with testing the null hypothesis of constant regression coefficients against the alternative that they follow a random walk. Different exact and large sample tests are presented and extensively compared based on Monte Carlo studies, so that the reader is guided in the question which test to choose in a particular situation. Moreover, different new tests are proposed which are suitable in situations with autocorrelated or heteroskedastic errors. Additionally, methods are developed to test for the constancy of regression coefficients in situations where one knows already that some coefficients follow a random walk, thereby one is enabled to find out which of the coefficients varies over time.
Author: Chang-Jin Kim
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262535505
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data. The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Author: Andrew C. Harvey
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107717140
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 578
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Book Description
In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139454730
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 351
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Book Description
Time series econometrics is a rapidly evolving field. Particularly, the cointegration revolution has had a substantial impact on applied analysis. Hence, no textbook has managed to cover the full range of methods in current use and explain how to proceed in applied domains. This gap in the literature motivates the present volume. The methods are sketched out, reminding the reader of the ideas underlying them and giving sufficient background for empirical work. The treatment can also be used as a textbook for a course on applied time series econometrics. Topics include: unit root and cointegration analysis, structural vector autoregressions, conditional heteroskedasticity and nonlinear and nonparametric time series models. Crucial to empirical work is the software that is available for analysis. New methodology is typically only gradually incorporated into existing software packages. Therefore a flexible Java interface has been created, allowing readers to replicate the applications and conduct their own analyses.
Author: Wolfgang Härdle
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642577008
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 210
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Book Description
In the last ten years, there has been increasing interest and activity in the general area of partially linear regression smoothing in statistics. Many methods and techniques have been proposed and studied. This monograph hopes to bring an up-to-date presentation of the state of the art of partially linear regression techniques. The emphasis is on methodologies rather than on the theory, with a particular focus on applications of partially linear regression techniques to various statistical problems. These problems include least squares regression, asymptotically efficient estimation, bootstrap resampling, censored data analysis, linear measurement error models, nonlinear measurement models, nonlinear and nonparametric time series models.
Author: Jesus Lopez-Fidalgo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790819522
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 241
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Book Description
This volume contains the proceedings of the 8th Workshop on Model-Oriented Design and Analysis. It offers leading and pioneering work on optimal experimental designs, both from a mathematical/statistical point of view and with regard to real applications. Scientists from all over the world have contributed to this volume. Primary topics are designs for nonlinear models and applications to experimental medicine.
Author: Gilles Dufrénot
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030542521
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 391
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Book Description
The book provides a comprehensive overview of the latest econometric methods for studying the dynamics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It examines alternative methodological approaches and concepts, including quantile spectra and co-spectra, and explores topics such as non-linear and non-stationary behavior, stochastic volatility models, and the econometrics of commodity markets and globalization. Furthermore, it demonstrates the application of recent techniques in various fields: in the frequency domain, in the analysis of persistent dynamics, in the estimation of state space models and new classes of volatility models. The book is divided into two parts: The first part applies econometrics to the field of macroeconomics, discussing trend/cycle decomposition, growth analysis, monetary policy and international trade. The second part applies econometrics to a wide range of topics in financial economics, including price dynamics in equity, commodity and foreign exchange markets and portfolio analysis. The book is essential reading for scholars, students, and practitioners in government and financial institutions interested in applying recent econometric time series methods to financial and economic data.
Author: Alessandro Di Bucchianico
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790826936
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 239
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Book Description
The volume contains the proceedings of the 7th Workshop on Model-Oriented Design and Analysis which has had the purpose of bringing together leading researchers in Eastern and Western Europe for an in-depth discussion of the optimal design of experiments. The papers are representative of the latest developments concerning non-linear models, computational algorithms and important applications, especially to medical statistics.
Author: Anthony C. Atkinson
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642575765
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
This book includes many of the papers presented at the 6th International workshop on Model Oriented Data Analysis held in June 2001. This series began in March 1987 with a meeting on the Wartburg near Eisenach (at that time in the GDR). The next four meetings were in 1990 (St Kyrik monastery, Bulgaria), 1992 (Petrodvorets, St Petersburg, Russia), 1995 (Spetses, Greece) and 1998 (Marseilles, France). Initially the main purpose of these workshops was to bring together leading scientists from 'Eastern' and 'Western' Europe for the exchange of ideas in theoretical and applied statistics, with special emphasis on experimental design. Now that the sep aration between East and West is much less rigid, this exchange has, in principle, become much easier. However, it is still important to provide opportunities for this interaction. MODA meetings are celebrated for their friendly atmosphere. Indeed, dis cussions between young and senior scientists at these meetings have resulted in several fruitful long-term collaborations. This intellectually stimulating atmosphere is achieved by limiting the number of participants to around eighty, by the choice of a location in which communal living is encour aged and, of course, through the careful scientific direction provided by the Programme Committee. It is a tradition of these meetings to provide low cost accommodation, low fees and financial support for the travel of young and Eastern participants. This is only possible through the help of sponsors and outside financial support was again important for the success of the meeting.
Author: Stefan Sperlich
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3790817015
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 185
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Book Description
This selection of articles emerged from different works presented "The Art of Semiparametrics" conference in 2003 in Berlin. It offers a collection of individual works that together show the large spectrum of semiparametric statistics. The book combines theoretical contributions with more applied and empirical studies. Although each article represents an original contribution to its own field, all are written in a self-contained way that may be read by non-experts.
