Survivorship Bias and Attrition Effects in Measures of Performance Persistence PDF Download
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Author: Jennifer N. Carpenter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
We generate samples of fund returns calibrated to match the U.S. mutual fund industry and simulate standard tests of performance persistence. We consider a variety of alternative return generating processes, survival criteria, and test methodologies. When survival depends on performance over several periods, survivorship bias induces spurious reversals, despite the presence of cross-sectional heteroskedasticity in performance. In samples which are largely free of survivorship bias, look-ahead biased methodologies and missing returns still affect statistics. In samples with no true persistence, the spurious persistence caused by survivorship bias in the presence of single-period survival criteria never reaches the magnitude found in recent empirical studies. When fund returns are truly persistent, the simulations reveal an attrition effect, distinct from survivorship bias. The systematic disappearance of poor performers causes mean persistence measures to differ from those in a hypothetical sample in which funds never disappear, even in tests which incorporate all data on disappearing funds. The magnitude and direction of this effect depends on the return generating process. We also examine the specification and power of the persistence tests. The t-test for the difference between top and bottom portfolios ranked by past performance is the best specified under the null and among the most powerful against the alternatives we consider.
Author: Jennifer N. Carpenter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
We generate samples of fund returns calibrated to match the U.S. mutual fund industry and simulate standard tests of performance persistence. We consider a variety of alternative return generating processes, survival criteria, and test methodologies. When survival depends on performance over several periods, survivorship bias induces spurious reversals, despite the presence of cross-sectional heteroskedasticity in performance. In samples which are largely free of survivorship bias, look-ahead biased methodologies and missing returns still affect statistics. In samples with no true persistence, the spurious persistence caused by survivorship bias in the presence of single-period survival criteria never reaches the magnitude found in recent empirical studies. When fund returns are truly persistent, the simulations reveal an attrition effect, distinct from survivorship bias. The systematic disappearance of poor performers causes mean persistence measures to differ from those in a hypothetical sample in which funds never disappear, even in tests which incorporate all data on disappearing funds. The magnitude and direction of this effect depends on the return generating process. We also examine the specification and power of the persistence tests. The t-test for the difference between top and bottom portfolios ranked by past performance is the best specified under the null and among the most powerful against the alternatives we consider.
Author: William N. Goetzmann
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Achievement motivation
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
Author: Stephen Jeffrey BROWN
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Peter Lückoff
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3834965278
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 604
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Book Description
Peter Lückoff investigates why fund flows and manager changes act as equilibrium mechanisms and drive the performance of both previously outperforming and previously underperforming funds back to average levels.
Author: Constantin Zopounidis
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030666913
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 480
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Book Description
Risk is the main source of uncertainty for investors, debtholders, corporate managers and other stakeholders. For all these actors, it is vital to focus on identifying and managing risk before making decisions. The success of their businesses depends on the relevance of their decisions and consequently, on their ability to manage and deal with the different types of risk. Accordingly, the main objective of this book is to promote scientific research in the different areas of risk management, aiming at being transversal and dealing with different aspects of risk management related to corporate finance as well as market finance. Thus, this book should provide useful insights for academics as well as professionals to better understand and assess the different types of risk.
Author: Christian Berger-Vachon
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 331969989X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 543
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Book Description
This book presents an authoritative collection of contributions reporting on fuzzy logic and decision theory, together with applications and case studies in economics and management science. Dedicated to Professor Jaume Gil Aluja in recognition of his pioneering work, the book reports on theories, methods and new challenges, thus offering not only a timely reference guide but also a source of new ideas and inspirations for graduate students and researchers alike.
Author: Itzhak Venezia
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9813100109
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 395
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Book Description
This unique volume presents new original research exploring factors that lead to investors behavioral biases. It discusses how features such as professionalism, sophistication, gender, media, and culture influence investors' decision-making in general, and in particular, how they generate (or limit) behavioral and cognitive biases. The effects of these factors on capital markets are also discussed. The book is based on the discussions and presentations at the First Israel Behavioral Finance Conference, which took place in Tel Aviv in May 2015. It examines in greater detail some of the key issues discussed at the conference.This is an innovative book in behavioral finance: it is the first to present an extensive collection of papers which discuss a comprehensive array of factors that influence or define investor character and analyzes these factors' effects on financial markets. The book is useful for readers interested in understanding the factors that influence investors' profiles and thus their behavioral biases. The book will be of great interest to researchers and students seeking a reference book which contains timely research on these areas of behavioral finance.
Author: Anjan V. Thakor
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080559921
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 605
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Book Description
The growth of financial intermediation research has yielded a host of questions that have pushed "design" issues to the fore even as the boundary between financial intermediation and corporate finance has blurred. This volume presents review articles on six major topics that are connected by information-theoretic tools and characterized by valuable perspectives and important questions for future research. Touching upon a wide range of issues pertaining to the designs of securities, institutions, trading mechanisms and markets, industry structure, and regulation, this volume will encourage bold new efforts to shape financial intermediaries in the future. Original review articles offer valuable perspectives on research issues appearing in top journals Twenty articles are grouped by six major topics, together defining the leading research edge of financial intermediation Corporate finance researchers will find affinities in the tools, methods, and conclusions featured in these articles
Author: Carlos Sánchez González
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1787439836
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 263
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Book Description
Sánchez González develops an innovative model that considers different management stages of mutual fund companies, overcoming the traditional dispute between the different approaches used in banking and insurance research.
Author: William N. Goetzmann
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 019803377X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 568
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Book Description
What is the return to investing in the stock market? Can we predict future stock market returns? How have equities performed over the last two centuries? The authors in this volume are among the leading researchers in the study of these questions. This book draws upon their research on the stock market over the past two dozen years. It contains their major research articles on the equity risk premium and new contributions on measuring, forecasting, and timing stock market returns, together with new interpretive essays that explore critical issues and new research on the topic of stock market investing. This book is aimed at all readers interested in understanding the empirical basis for the equity risk premium. Through the analysis and interpretation of two scholars whose research contributions have been key factors in the modern debate over stock market perfomance, this volume engages the reader in many of the key issues of importance to investors. How large is the premium? Is history a reliable guide to predict future equity returns? Does the equity and cash flows of the market? Are global equity markets different from those in the United States? Do emerging markets offer higher or lower equity risk premia? The authors use the historical performance of the world's stock markets to address these issues.
