Sudden Stops, Output Drops, and Credit Collapses PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Sudden Stops, Output Drops, and Credit Collapses PDF full book. Access full book title Sudden Stops, Output Drops, and Credit Collapses by Jihad Dagher. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Jihad Dagher
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781455201877
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper proposes a tractable Sudden Stop model to explain the main patterns in firm level data in a sample of Southeast Asian firms during the Asian crisis. The model, which features trend shocks and financial frictions, is able to generate the main patterns observed in the sample during and following the Asian crisis, including the ensuing credit-less recovery, which are also patterns broadly shared by most Sudden Stop episodes as documented in Calvo et al. (2006). The model also proposes a novel explanation as to why small firms experience steeper declines than their larger peers as documented in this paper. This size effect is generated under the assumption that small firms are growth firms, to which there is support in the data. Trend shocks when combined with financial frictions in this model also generate strong leverage effects in line with what is observed in the sample, and with other observations from the literature.
Author: Jihad Dagher
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781455201877
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper proposes a tractable Sudden Stop model to explain the main patterns in firm level data in a sample of Southeast Asian firms during the Asian crisis. The model, which features trend shocks and financial frictions, is able to generate the main patterns observed in the sample during and following the Asian crisis, including the ensuing credit-less recovery, which are also patterns broadly shared by most Sudden Stop episodes as documented in Calvo et al. (2006). The model also proposes a novel explanation as to why small firms experience steeper declines than their larger peers as documented in this paper. This size effect is generated under the assumption that small firms are growth firms, to which there is support in the data. Trend shocks when combined with financial frictions in this model also generate strong leverage effects in line with what is observed in the sample, and with other observations from the literature.
Author: V. V. Chari
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital movements
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Get Book Here
Book Description
"In recent financial crises and in recent theoretical studies of them, abrupt declines in capital inflows, or sudden stops, have been linked with large drops in output.Do sudden stops cause output drops? No, according to a standard equilibrium model in which sudden stops are generated by an abrupt tightening of a country's collateral constraint on foreign borrowing.In this model, in fact, sudden stops lead to output increases, not decreases.An examination of the quantitative effects of a well-known sudden stop, in Mexico in the mid-1990s, confirms that a drop in output accompanying a sudden stop cannot be accounted for by the sudden stop alone.To generate an output drop during a financial crisis, as other studies have done, the model must include other economic frictions which have negative effects on output large enough to overwhelm the positive effect of the sudden stop"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site.
Author: Suparna Chakraborty
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
Empirical literature overwhelmingly suggest that sudden stops lead to output drops. Can general equilibrium theory predict this link or is it theoretically impossible for sudden stops to generate output drops by themselves as other studies suggest? In this paper we contend that the answer depends on the response of labor to a sudden stop which in turn depends on the type of preference specification used. To this end, we use a small open economy model where agents face a constraint on foreign borrowing and a sudden stop occurs due to an abrupt tightening of the borrowing constraint. We find that under Cobb-Douglas preferences, the dominant wealth e¤ect of a sudden stop leads to labor increases which in turn generates an output increase as opposed to a drop! In contrast, under GHH preferences that by construction eliminate the wealth effect, a sudden stop leads to declines in future capital and labor supply leading to drops in output. We find empirical support of our conclusion in data from a sample of emerging economies where labor declined significantly in the aftermath of a sudden stop.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463904924
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 12
Get Book Here
Book Description
The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about emerging markets and the financial crisis (by Ayhan Kose); the research summaries are "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle" (by Cemile Sancak, Ricardo Velloso, and Jing Xing) and "Banking Crisis Resolution: Was this Time Different?" (by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia). The issue also lists the contents of the second issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 58 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during October-December 2010; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes.
Author: Waltraud Schelkle
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198717938
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 387
Get Book Here
Book Description
Creating the European monetary union between diverse and unequal nation states is arguably one of the biggest social experiments in history. This book offers an explanation of how the euro experiment came about and was sustained despite a severe crisis, and provides a comparison with the monetary-financial history of the US. The euro experiment can be understood as risk-sharing through a currency that is issued by a supranational central bank. A single currency shares liquidity risks by creating larger markets for all financial assets. A single monetary policy responds to business cycles in the currency area as a whole rather than managing the path of one dominant economy. Mechanisms of risk-sharing become institutions of monetary solidarity if they are consciously maintained, but they will periodically face opposition in member states. This book argues that diversity of membership is not an economic obstacle to the success of the euro, as diversity increases the potential gains from risk sharing. But political cooperation is needed to realize this potential, and such cooperation is up against collective action problems which become more intractable as the parties become more diverse. Hence, risk-sharing usually comes about as a collective by-product of national incentives. This political-economic tension can explain why the gains from risk-sharing are not more fully exploited, both in the euro area and in the US dollar area. This approach to monetary integration is based on the theory of collective action when hierarchy is not available as a solution to inter-state cooperation. The theory originates with Keohane and Ostrom (1995) and it is applied in this book, taking into account the latest research on the inherent instability of financial market integration.
Author: Giovanni Piersanti
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199653127
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 407
Get Book Here
Book Description
An overview of the causes and consequences of speculative attacks on domestic currency and international financial turmoil. It provides a comprehensive treatment of the existing theories of exchange rate crises and of financial market runs.
Author: Gerard Caprio
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0123978742
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 807
Get Book Here
Book Description
The sharp realities of financial globalization become clear during crises, when winners and losers emerge. Crises usher in short- and long-term changes to the status quo, and everyone agrees that learning from crises is a top priority. The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization devotes separate articles to specific crises, the conditions that cause them, and the longstanding arrangements devised to address them. While other books and journal articles treat these subjects in isolation, this volume presents a wide-ranging, consistent, yet varied specificity. Substantial, authoritative, and useful, these articles provide material unavailable elsewhere. Substantial articles by top scholars sets this volume apart from other information sources Rapidly developing subjects will interest readers well into the future Reader demand and lack of competitors underline the high value of these reference works
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475561008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author: Mr. Francisco F. Vazquez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151358264X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper studies episodes in which aggregate bank credit contracts alongside expanding economic activity—credit reversals. Using data for 179 countries during 1960‒2017, the paper finds that reversals are a relatively common phenomenon--on average, they occur every five years. By comparison, banking crises take place every eight years on average. Credit reversals and banking crises also appear related to each other: reversals become more likely in the aftermath of banking crises, while the likelihood of crises drops following reversals. In terms of foregone economic activity, reversals are shown to be very costly, at about two-thirds of the costs of banking crises after taking into account their relative frequencies.
Author: Luis Catão
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper shows that recent manifestations of sudden stops (SSs) in international capital flows have striking parallels in the early financial globalization era preceding World War I. All main capital-importing countries then faced episodic capital flow reversals averaging some 5 percent of GDP and with a median duration of four years. Most SSs also displayed striking crosscountry synchronization, being immediately preceded by rising world interest rates. Both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes were hit, with no significant differences between them. Yet, not all SSs resulted in currency drops: while some countries experienced currency collapses, others managed to preserve exchange rate stability. These different responses are related to domestic "frictions" that heightened the procyclicality of absorption and hindered precautionary reserve accumulation in some countries relative to others.
