Statistically Sound Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading of Financial Instruments PDF Download
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Author: David Aronson
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781489507716
Category : Algorithmus
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This book serves two purposes. First, it teaches the importance of using sophisticated yet accessible statistical methods to evaluate a trading system before it is put to real-world use. In order to accommodate readers having limited mathematical background, these techniques are illustrated with step-by-step examples using actual market data, and all examples are explained in plain language. Second, this book shows how the free program TSSB (Trading System Synthesis & Boosting) can be used to develop and test trading systems. The machine learning and statistical algorithms available in TSSB go far beyond those available in other off-the-shelf development software. Intelligent use of these state-of-the-art techniques greatly improves the likelihood of obtaining a trading system whose impressive backtest results continue when the system is put to use in a trading account. Among other things, this book will teach the reader how to: Estimate future performance with rigorous algorithms Evaluate the influence of good luck in backtests Detect overfitting before deploying your system Estimate performance bias due to model fitting and selection of seemingly superior systems Use state-of-the-art ensembles of models to form consensus trade decisions Build optimal portfolios of trading systems and rigorously test their expected performance Search thousands of markets to find subsets that are especially predictable Create trading systems that specialize in specific market regimes such as trending/flat or high/low volatility More information on the TSSB program can be found at TSSBsoftware dot com.
Author: David Aronson
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781489507716
Category : Algorithmus
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book serves two purposes. First, it teaches the importance of using sophisticated yet accessible statistical methods to evaluate a trading system before it is put to real-world use. In order to accommodate readers having limited mathematical background, these techniques are illustrated with step-by-step examples using actual market data, and all examples are explained in plain language. Second, this book shows how the free program TSSB (Trading System Synthesis & Boosting) can be used to develop and test trading systems. The machine learning and statistical algorithms available in TSSB go far beyond those available in other off-the-shelf development software. Intelligent use of these state-of-the-art techniques greatly improves the likelihood of obtaining a trading system whose impressive backtest results continue when the system is put to use in a trading account. Among other things, this book will teach the reader how to: Estimate future performance with rigorous algorithms Evaluate the influence of good luck in backtests Detect overfitting before deploying your system Estimate performance bias due to model fitting and selection of seemingly superior systems Use state-of-the-art ensembles of models to form consensus trade decisions Build optimal portfolios of trading systems and rigorously test their expected performance Search thousands of markets to find subsets that are especially predictable Create trading systems that specialize in specific market regimes such as trending/flat or high/low volatility More information on the TSSB program can be found at TSSBsoftware dot com.
Author: Stefan Jansen
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
ISBN: 1839216786
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 822
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Book Description
Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in the PDF format. Key FeaturesDesign, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategiesCreate a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisionsLeverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative dataBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learnLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image dataResearch and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP valuesImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsBacktest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and BacktraderOptimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolioCreate a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFsTrain a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeek's high-quality trades and quotes dataWho this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.
Author: Marcos Lopez de Prado
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119482089
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 406
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Book Description
Learn to understand and implement the latest machine learning innovations to improve your investment performance Machine learning (ML) is changing virtually every aspect of our lives. Today, ML algorithms accomplish tasks that – until recently – only expert humans could perform. And finance is ripe for disruptive innovations that will transform how the following generations understand money and invest. In the book, readers will learn how to: Structure big data in a way that is amenable to ML algorithms Conduct research with ML algorithms on big data Use supercomputing methods and back test their discoveries while avoiding false positives Advances in Financial Machine Learning addresses real life problems faced by practitioners every day, and explains scientifically sound solutions using math, supported by code and examples. Readers become active users who can test the proposed solutions in their individual setting. Written by a recognized expert and portfolio manager, this book will equip investment professionals with the groundbreaking tools needed to succeed in modern finance.
Author: Robert Kissell
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0124016936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 492
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Book Description
The Science of Algorithmic Trading and Portfolio Management, with its emphasis on algorithmic trading processes and current trading models, sits apart from others of its kind. Robert Kissell, the first author to discuss algorithmic trading across the various asset classes, provides key insights into ways to develop, test, and build trading algorithms. Readers learn how to evaluate market impact models and assess performance across algorithms, traders, and brokers, and acquire the knowledge to implement electronic trading systems. This valuable book summarizes market structure, the formation of prices, and how different participants interact with one another, including bluffing, speculating, and gambling. Readers learn the underlying details and mathematics of customized trading algorithms, as well as advanced modeling techniques to improve profitability through algorithmic trading and appropriate risk management techniques. Portfolio management topics, including quant factors and black box models, are discussed, and an accompanying website includes examples, data sets supplementing exercises in the book, and large projects. - Prepares readers to evaluate market impact models and assess performance across algorithms, traders, and brokers. - Helps readers design systems to manage algorithmic risk and dark pool uncertainty. - Summarizes an algorithmic decision making framework to ensure consistency between investment objectives and trading objectives.
Author: Matthew F. Dixon
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030410684
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 565
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Book Description
This book introduces machine learning methods in finance. It presents a unified treatment of machine learning and various statistical and computational disciplines in quantitative finance, such as financial econometrics and discrete time stochastic control, with an emphasis on how theory and hypothesis tests inform the choice of algorithm for financial data modeling and decision making. With the trend towards increasing computational resources and larger datasets, machine learning has grown into an important skillset for the finance industry. This book is written for advanced graduate students and academics in financial econometrics, mathematical finance and applied statistics, in addition to quants and data scientists in the field of quantitative finance. Machine Learning in Finance: From Theory to Practice is divided into three parts, each part covering theory and applications. The first presents supervised learning for cross-sectional data from both a Bayesian and frequentist perspective. The more advanced material places a firm emphasis on neural networks, including deep learning, as well as Gaussian processes, with examples in investment management and derivative modeling. The second part presents supervised learning for time series data, arguably the most common data type used in finance with examples in trading, stochastic volatility and fixed income modeling. Finally, the third part presents reinforcement learning and its applications in trading, investment and wealth management. Python code examples are provided to support the readers' understanding of the methodologies and applications. The book also includes more than 80 mathematical and programming exercises, with worked solutions available to instructors. As a bridge to research in this emergent field, the final chapter presents the frontiers of machine learning in finance from a researcher's perspective, highlighting how many well-known concepts in statistical physics are likely to emerge as important methodologies for machine learning in finance.
Author: David Aronson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118160584
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 572
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Book Description
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining.
Author: Dr. Param Jeet
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
ISBN: 1786465256
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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Book Description
Implement machine learning, time-series analysis, algorithmic trading and more About This Book Understand the basics of R and how they can be applied in various Quantitative Finance scenarios Learn various algorithmic trading techniques and ways to optimize them using the tools available in R. Contain different methods to manage risk and explore trading using Machine Learning. Who This Book Is For If you want to learn how to use R to build quantitative finance models with ease, this book is for you. Analysts who want to learn R to solve their quantitative finance problems will also find this book useful. Some understanding of the basic financial concepts will be useful, though prior knowledge of R is not required. What You Will Learn Get to know the basics of R and how to use it in the field of Quantitative Finance Understand data processing and model building using R Explore different types of analytical techniques such as statistical analysis, time-series analysis, predictive modeling, and econometric analysis Build and analyze quantitative finance models using real-world examples How real-life examples should be used to develop strategies Performance metrics to look into before deciding upon any model Deep dive into the vast world of machine-learning based trading Get to grips with algorithmic trading and different ways of optimizing it Learn about controlling risk parameters of financial instruments In Detail The role of a quantitative analyst is very challenging, yet lucrative, so there is a lot of competition for the role in top-tier organizations and investment banks. This book is your go-to resource if you want to equip yourself with the skills required to tackle any real-world problem in quantitative finance using the popular R programming language. You'll start by getting an understanding of the basics of R and its relevance in the field of quantitative finance. Once you've built this foundation, we'll dive into the practicalities of building financial models in R. This will help you have a fair understanding of the topics as well as their implementation, as the authors have presented some use cases along with examples that are easy to understand and correlate. We'll also look at risk management and optimization techniques for algorithmic trading. Finally, the book will explain some advanced concepts, such as trading using machine learning, optimizations, exotic options, and hedging. By the end of this book, you will have a firm grasp of the techniques required to implement basic quantitative finance models in R. Style and approach This book introduces you to the essentials of quantitative finance with the help of easy-to-understand, practical examples and use cases in R. Each chapter presents a specific financial concept in detail, backed with relevant theory and the implementation of a real-life example.
Author: Timothy Masters
Publisher: Apress
ISBN: 1484241738
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 325
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Book Description
Build, test, and tune financial, insurance or other market trading systems using C++ algorithms and statistics. You’ve had an idea and have done some preliminary experiments, and it looks promising. Where do you go from here? Well, this book discusses and dissects this case study approach. Seemingly good backtest performance isn't enough to justify trading real money. You need to perform rigorous statistical tests of the system's validity. Then, if basic tests confirm the quality of your idea, you need to tune your system, not just for best performance, but also for robust behavior in the face of inevitable market changes. Next, you need to quantify its expected future behavior, assessing how bad its real-life performance might actually be, and whether you can live with that. Finally, you need to find its theoretical performance limits so you know if its actual trades conform to this theoretical expectation, enabling you to dump the system if it does not live up to expectations. This book does not contain any sure-fire, guaranteed-riches trading systems. Those are a dime a dozen... But if you have a trading system, this book will provide you with a set of tools that will help you evaluate the potential value of your system, tweak it to improve its profitability, and monitor its on-going performance to detect deterioration before it fails catastrophically. Any serious market trader would do well to employ the methods described in this book. What You Will Learn See how the 'spaghetti-on-the-wall' approach to trading system development can be done legitimatelyDetect overfitting early in developmentEstimate the probability that your system's backtest results could have been due to just good luckRegularize a predictive model so it automatically selects an optimal subset of indicator candidatesRapidly find the global optimum for any type of parameterized trading systemAssess the ruggedness of your trading system against market changesEnhance the stationarity and information content of your proprietary indicatorsNest one layer of walkforward analysis inside another layer to account for selection bias in complex trading systemsCompute a lower bound on your system's mean future performanceBound expected periodic returns to detect on-going system deterioration before it becomes severeEstimate the probability of catastrophic drawdown Who This Book Is For Experienced C++ programmers, developers, and software engineers. Prior experience with rigorous statistical procedures to evaluate and maximize the quality of systems is recommended as well.
Author: George Pruitt
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111909657X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 374
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Book Description
The accessible, beneficial guide to developing algorithmic trading solutions The Ultimate Algorithmic Trading System Toolbox is the complete package savvy investors have been looking for. An integration of explanation and tutorial, this guide takes you from utter novice to out-the-door trading solution as you learn the tools and techniques of the trade. You'll explore the broad spectrum of today's technological offerings, and use several to develop trading ideas using the provided source code and the author's own library, and get practical advice on popular software packages including TradeStation, TradersStudio, MultiCharts, Excel, and more. You'll stop making repetitive mistakes as you learn to recognize which paths you should not go down, and you'll discover that you don't need to be a programmer to take advantage of the latest technology. The companion website provides up-to-date TradeStation code, Excel spreadsheets, and instructional video, and gives you access to the author himself to help you interpret and implement the included algorithms. Algorithmic system trading isn't really all that new, but the technology that lets you program, evaluate, and implement trading ideas is rapidly evolving. This book helps you take advantage of these new capabilities to develop the trading solution you've been looking for. Exploit trading technology without a computer science degree Evaluate different trading systems' strengths and weaknesses Stop making the same trading mistakes over and over again Develop a complete trading solution using provided source code and libraries New technology has enabled the average trader to easily implement their ideas at very low cost, breathing new life into systems that were once not viable. If you're ready to take advantage of the new trading environment but don't know where to start, The Ultimate Algorithmic Trading System Toolbox will help you get on board quickly and easily.
Author: Chris Conlan
Publisher: Apress
ISBN: 1484221788
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 217
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Book Description
Learn to trade algorithmically with your existing brokerage, from data management, to strategy optimization, to order execution, using free and publicly available data. Connect to your brokerage’s API, and the source code is plug-and-play. Automated Trading with R explains automated trading, starting with its mathematics and moving to its computation and execution. You will gain a unique insight into the mechanics and computational considerations taken in building a back-tester, strategy optimizer, and fully functional trading platform. The platform built in this book can serve as a complete replacement for commercially available platforms used by retail traders and small funds. Software components are strictly decoupled and easily scalable, providing opportunity to substitute any data source, trading algorithm, or brokerage. This book will: Provide a flexible alternative to common strategy automation frameworks, like Tradestation, Metatrader, and CQG, to small funds and retail traders Offer an understanding of the internal mechanisms of an automated trading system Standardize discussion and notation of real-world strategy optimization problems What You Will Learn Understand machine-learning criteria for statistical validity in the context of time-series Optimize strategies, generate real-time trading decisions, and minimize computation time while programming an automated strategy in R and using its package library Best simulate strategy performance in its specific use case to derive accurate performance estimates Understand critical real-world variables pertaining to portfolio management and performance assessment, including latency, drawdowns, varying trade size, portfolio growth, and penalization of unused capital Who This Book Is For Traders/practitioners at the retail or small fund level with at least an undergraduate background in finance or computer science; graduate level finance or data science students
