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Author: Mr.Derek Anderson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513563351
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China’s growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and the buildup of infrastructure in the region. The impact of spillovers from China has been an open question because of the challenge to use an internally consistent framework with solid economic foundations that accounts for both the direct impact China may have on individual countries in SSA through a variety of channels (trade, investment, financial) as well as the impact on the region through the global economy (economic activity and commodity prices). This paper explores those channels of transmission and provides illustrative order of magnitude for the short- and medium-term economic impact by using AFRMOD, a module of the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), a multicountry general equilibrium model developed at the IMF. Three alternative scenarios are considered: first, lower potential output in China that is originally misperceived as a temporary cyclical slowdown; second, structural reforms in China that aim to increase potential output; and third, a relocation of low-end manufacturing to sub-Saharan Africa.
Author: Mr.Derek Anderson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513563351
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China’s growing economic role as a partner of SSA countriesfor both trade and the buildup of infrastructure in the region. The impact of spillovers from China has been an open question because of the challenge to use an internally consistent framework with solid economic foundations that accounts for both the direct impact China may have on individual countries in SSA through a variety of channels (trade, investment, financial) as well as the impact on the region through the global economy (economic activity and commodity prices). This paper explores those channels of transmission and provides illustrative order of magnitude for the short- and medium-term economic impact by using AFRMOD, a module of the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM), a multicountry general equilibrium model developed at the IMF. Three alternative scenarios are considered: first, lower potential output in China that is originally misperceived as a temporary cyclical slowdown; second, structural reforms in China that aim to increase potential output; and third, a relocation of low-end manufacturing to sub-Saharan Africa.
Author: Mr.Paulo Drummond
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484311396
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
The rapid growth in China’s domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China’s investment growth on SSA’s exports. Although rising trading links with China have allowed African countries to diversify their export base across countries, away from advanced economies, they have also led SSA countries to become more susceptible to spillovers from China. Based on panel data analysis, a 1 percentage point increase (decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point increase (decline) in SSA countries’ export growth. This impact is larger for resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. These effects could be mitigated, however, to the extent that countries can reorient their exports.
Author: Mr.Paulo Drummond
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484311310
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
The rapid growth in China’s domestic investment in recent decades has generated a large appetite for global goods, including from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper estimates the impact of changes in China’s investment growth on SSA’s exports. Although rising trading links with China have allowed African countries to diversify their export base across countries, away from advanced economies, they have also led SSA countries to become more susceptible to spillovers from China. Based on panel data analysis, a 1 percentage point increase (decline) in China’s domestic investment growth is associated with an average 0.6 percentage point increase (decline) in SSA countries’ export growth. This impact is larger for resource-rich countries, especially oil exporters. These effects could be mitigated, however, to the extent that countries can reorient their exports.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475593236
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
How does China’s new growth model affect sub-Saharan Africa? To address this question, this paper first looks at the growing ties between China and Africa; attempts to estimate more precisely the impact on growth through the trade channel; and finally draws some policy implications regarding whether this means an end of the Africa Rising narrative or merely the beginning of a new chapter.
Author: Harry G. Broadman
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821368362
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 422
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Book Description
China and India's new-found interest in trade and investment with Africa - home to 300 million of the globe's poorest people and the world's most formidable development challenge - presents a significant opportunity for growth and integration of theSub-Saharan continent into the global economy. Africa's Silk Road finds that China and India's South-South commerce with Africa isabout far more than natural resources, opening the way for Africato become a processor of commodities and a competitive supplier of goods and services to these countries - a major departure from its long established relations with the North. A growing number of Chinese and Indian businesses active in Africa operate on a global scale, work with world-class technologies, produce products and services according to the most demanding standards, and foster the integration of African businesses into advanced markets.There are significant imbalances, however, in these emerging commercial relationships. These can be addressed through a series of reforms in all countries: 'At-the-border' reforms, such as elimination of China and India's escalating tariffs on Africa's leading exports, and elimination ofAfrica's tariffs on certain inputs that make exports uncompetitive 'Behind-the-border' reforms in Africa, to unleash competitive market forces and strengthen its basic market institutions 'Between-the-border' improvements in trade facilitation mechanisms to decrease transactions costs Reforms that leverage linkages between investment and trade, toallow African businesses to participate in global productionnetworks that investments by Chinese and Indian firms can generate.
Author: Allan Dizioli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475524269
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Author: Oliver Morrissey
Publisher: Commonwealth Secretariat
ISBN: 1849290555
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
Through detailed country-level analysis, this study offers contributions to the understanding of the relationship between China, India, and SSA. The authors review and assess the economic impacts, and provide recommendations to assist policy-makers enhance the ability of SSA countries to take advantage of new opportunities.
Author: Gustavo Ramirez
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external demand for their exports, declines in commodity prices and the terms of trade, and tighter financial conditions abroad. The last, proxied by the spread of three-month Libor to US treasury bills, is to our knowledge one of the first applications of such a measure of financial conditions for countries in the region.
Author: Meine Pieter van Dijk
Publisher: Amsterdam University Press
ISBN: 908964136X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 225
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Book Description
"This book describes China's growing range of activities in Africa, especially in the sub-Saharan region. The three most important instruments China has at its disposal in Africa are development aid, investments and trade policy. The Chinese government, which believes the Western development aid model has failed, is looking for new forms of aid and development in Africa. China's economic success can partly be ascribed to the huge availability of cheap labour, which is primarily employed in export-oriented industries. China is looking for the required raw materials in Africa, and for new marketplaces. Investments are being made on a large scale in Africa by Chinese state-controlled firms and private companies, particularly in the oil-producing countries (Angola, Nigeria and Sudan) and countries rich in minerals (Zambia). Third, the trade policy China is conducting is analysed in China and compared with that of Europe and the United States. In case studies the specific situation in several African countries is examined. In Zambia the mining industry, construction and agriculture are described. One case study of Sudan deals with the political presence of China in Sudan and the extent to which Chinese arms suppliers contributed to the current crisis in Darfur. The possibility of Chinese diplomacy offering a solution in that conflict is discussed. The conclusion considers whether social responsibility can be expected of the Chinese government and companies and if this is desirable, and to what extent the Chinese model in Africa can act as an example - or not - for the West"--Publisher's description.
Author: Ndomo Melingui Thérèse Aisha
Publisher: AuthorHouse
ISBN: 1467036188
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 205
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Book Description
Outlook and Analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa in Global Economy - A Crystal Need of Changes and Policy Orientation for a Take-off in Light of Chinese Experience: A New Goal. Introductory Remarks about Sub Saharan Africa backwardness in current situation describe Africa in the World. The Past speaks to the Present towards the Horizon. Furthermore, it shows what are the major changes that have been brought by the Globalization of Markets, since the colonial destruction of the Old World today Third and Fourth Worlds. Then, it focuses on the dilemma met by peoples of these weak Old World in their pace to economic development. Globalization can cause many difficulties to Third and Fourth World nations, but also it may open up opportunities. In this era of high commercial relations and links between continents, countries or nations, worlds can adopt a variety of Development Policies. Therefore, discuss and discern what are the key-steps and key strategies that a country has to follow in order to promote economic growth and sustainable development. This will be the ultimate concern of the author.
