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Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498303846
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Natural gas
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333486
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author: Mary Grace Flannery
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
Volatile oil prices in the United States in recent years have led to a focus on speculation in the crude oil markets. Some legislators and the public place the blame for high oil prices on speculators and aim to impose greater regulation on this category of traders. However, do speculators influence price in the crude oil market, or can fundamental factors sufficiently explain the price of crude oil? This thesis examines the pros and cons of speculative activity in the U.S. crude oil market, conducts a quantitative analysis to determine the relationship between speculative activity and crude oil prices, discusses proposed legislation, and endorses selected legislation for greater disclosure of OTC derivatives.
Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic government information
Languages : en
Pages : 264
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Book Description
Author: Thomas Hoehl
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3656047715
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 89
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Book Description
Master's Thesis from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 8,0, Maastricht University (School of Business and Economics), language: English, abstract: This study finds that while a large part of the variation in crude oil futures prices is driven by fundamental factors, financial investment and speculation has the potential to aggravate reactions to changing fundamental variables and furthermore move prices on its own. The evidence is gathered by performing linear regressions and Granger Causality tests on futures returns, position data of different categories of futures traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange and proxies for relevant fundamental factors such as equity and exchange rate returns gathered from August 2006 to December 2010. While higher prices for crude oil naturally come along with increasing physical demand and finite world supply, future regulation might temper market volatility and guarantee that prices reflect a sustainable physical market equilibrium. The study also gives an overview of commodity market regulation and position limits on futures markets.
Author: Pavel Slechta
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783659252198
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Alessandro Cologni
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic book
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Ms.Malika Pant
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455202207
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive.
Author: Michael Hall Yan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
This paper is intended to better understand the effects of speculation on crude oil prices. While speculation has many benefits such as increasing market liquidity and bearing market risks that other wish to offset, speculation can also create unwanted market volatility and economic bubbles. During the past decade, crude oil prices have been extremely volatile causing increased controversy between investors and regulators regarding the role that oil speculation has played in the price of crude oil. This report examines the relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices to determine the role arbitragers, speculators, and hedgers have had in crude oil pricing.
Author: Rui Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
