Spatio-Temporal Drought Characterization and Forecasting Using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks. A Case of the Upper Tana River Basin, Kenya PDF Download
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Author: Raphael Muli Wambua
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668917477
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 245
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Book Description
Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2016 in the subject Engineering - Civil Engineering, grade: 80.0, Egerton University, course: AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING, language: English, abstract: Drought is a critical stochastic natural disaster that adversely affects water resources, ecosystems and people. Drought is a condition characterized by scarcity of precipitation and/or water quantity that negatively affects the global, regional and local land-scales. At both global and regional scales, drought frequency and severity have been increasing leading to direct and indirect decline in water resources. Increase in drought severity and frequency in the upper Tana River basin, Kenya, water resources systems have been adversely affected. Timely detection and forecasting of drought is crucial in planning and management of water resources. The main objective of this research was to formulate the most appropriate models for assessment and forecasting of drought using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the basin. Hydro-meteorlogical data for the period 1970-2010 at sixteen hydrometric stations was used to test the performance of the indices in forecasting of the future drought at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24-months lead times, by constructing ANN models with different time delays. Drought conditions at monthly temporal resolution were evaluated using selected drought indices. The occurrence of drought was investigated using non-parametric Man-kendall trend test. Spatial distribution of drought severity was determined using Kriging interpolation techinique. In addition, a standard Nonlinear-Integrated Drought Index (NDI), for drought forecasting in the basin was developed using hydro-meteoroogical data for the river basin. The results of spaial drought show that the south-eastern parts of the basin are more prone to drought risks than the north-western areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test indicates an increasing drought trend in the south-eastern and no trend in north-western areas of the basin. Development of Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) function, NDI and characteristic curves defining the return period and the probability of different drought magnitudes based on Drought Indices (DIs) was achieved. Drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves were developed. The formulated NDI tool can be adopted for a synchronized assessment and forecasting of all the three operational drought types in the basin. The results can be used in assisting water resources managers for timely detection and forecasting of drought conditions in prioritized planning of drought preparedness and early warning systems.
Author: Raphael Muli Wambua
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668917477
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 245
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Book Description
Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2016 in the subject Engineering - Civil Engineering, grade: 80.0, Egerton University, course: AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING, language: English, abstract: Drought is a critical stochastic natural disaster that adversely affects water resources, ecosystems and people. Drought is a condition characterized by scarcity of precipitation and/or water quantity that negatively affects the global, regional and local land-scales. At both global and regional scales, drought frequency and severity have been increasing leading to direct and indirect decline in water resources. Increase in drought severity and frequency in the upper Tana River basin, Kenya, water resources systems have been adversely affected. Timely detection and forecasting of drought is crucial in planning and management of water resources. The main objective of this research was to formulate the most appropriate models for assessment and forecasting of drought using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the basin. Hydro-meteorlogical data for the period 1970-2010 at sixteen hydrometric stations was used to test the performance of the indices in forecasting of the future drought at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24-months lead times, by constructing ANN models with different time delays. Drought conditions at monthly temporal resolution were evaluated using selected drought indices. The occurrence of drought was investigated using non-parametric Man-kendall trend test. Spatial distribution of drought severity was determined using Kriging interpolation techinique. In addition, a standard Nonlinear-Integrated Drought Index (NDI), for drought forecasting in the basin was developed using hydro-meteoroogical data for the river basin. The results of spaial drought show that the south-eastern parts of the basin are more prone to drought risks than the north-western areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test indicates an increasing drought trend in the south-eastern and no trend in north-western areas of the basin. Development of Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) function, NDI and characteristic curves defining the return period and the probability of different drought magnitudes based on Drought Indices (DIs) was achieved. Drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves were developed. The formulated NDI tool can be adopted for a synchronized assessment and forecasting of all the three operational drought types in the basin. The results can be used in assisting water resources managers for timely detection and forecasting of drought conditions in prioritized planning of drought preparedness and early warning systems.
Author: Management Association, Information Resources
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1668424096
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 1575
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Book Description
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) present many benefits in analyzing complex data in a proficient manner. As an effective and efficient problem-solving method, ANNs are incredibly useful in many different fields. From education to medicine and banking to engineering, artificial neural networks are a growing phenomenon as more realize the plethora of uses and benefits they provide. Due to their complexity, it is vital for researchers to understand ANN capabilities in various fields. The Research Anthology on Artificial Neural Network Applications covers critical topics related to artificial neural networks and their multitude of applications in a number of diverse areas including medicine, finance, operations research, business, social media, security, and more. Covering everything from the applications and uses of artificial neural networks to deep learning and non-linear problems, this book is ideal for computer scientists, IT specialists, data scientists, technologists, business owners, engineers, government agencies, researchers, academicians, and students, as well as anyone who is interested in learning more about how artificial neural networks can be used across a wide range of fields.
Author: Mohammad Karamouz
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0203499433
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 608
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Book Description
Focusing on conflict resolution, Water Resources Systems Analysis discusses systematic approaches to the mathematical modeling of various water resources issues, which helps decision-makers allocate water effectively and efficiently. Readers will gain an understanding of simulation, optimization, multi-criterion-decision-making, as well as engineer
Author: John James Keetch
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Droughts
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Daniel P. Loucks
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319442341
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 635
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Book Description
This book is open access under a CC BY-NC 4.0 license. This revised, updated textbook presents a systems approach to the planning, management, and operation of water resources infrastructure in the environment. Previously published in 2005 by UNESCO and Deltares (Delft Hydraulics at the time), this new edition, written again with contributions from Jery R. Stedinger, Jozef P. M. Dijkman, and Monique T. Villars, is aimed equally at students and professionals. It introduces readers to the concept of viewing issues involving water resources as a system of multiple interacting components and scales. It offers guidelines for initiating and carrying out water resource system planning and management projects. It introduces alternative optimization, simulation, and statistical methods useful for project identification, design, siting, operation and evaluation and for studying post-planning issues. The authors cover both basin-wide and urban water issues and present ways of identifying and evaluating alternatives for addressing multiple-purpose and multi-objective water quantity and quality management challenges. Reinforced with cases studies, exercises, and media supplements throughout, the text is ideal for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses in water resource planning and management as well as for practicing planners and engineers in the field.
Author: Tetsuya Sumi
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811629048
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 559
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Book Description
This open access book brings together research studies, developments, and application-related flash flood topics on wadi systems in arid regions. The major merit of this comprehensive book is its focus on research and technical papers as well as case study applications in different regions worldwide that cover many topics and answer several scientific questions. The book chapters comprehensively and significantly highlight different scientific research disciplines related to wadi flash floods, including climatology, hydrological models, new monitoring techniques, remote sensing techniques, field investigations, international collaboration projects, risk assessment and mitigation, sedimentation and sediment transport, and groundwater quality and quantity assessment and management. In this book, the contributing authors (engineers, researchers, and professionals) introduce their recent scientific findings to develop suitable, applicable, and innovative tools for forecasting, mitigation, and water management as well as society development under seven main research themes as follows: Part 1. Wadi Flash Flood Challenges and Strategies Part 2. Hydrometeorology and Climate Changes Part 3. Rainfall–Runoff Modeling and Approaches Part 4. Disaster Risk Reduction and Mitigation Part 5. Reservoir Sedimentation and Sediment Yield Part 6. Groundwater Management Part 7. Application and Case Studies The book includes selected high-quality papers from five series of the International Symposium on Flash Floods in Wadi Systems (ISFF) that were held in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020 in Japan, Egypt, Oman, Morocco, and Japan, respectively. These collections of chapters could provide valuable guidance and scientific content not only for academics, researchers, and students but also for decision-makers in the MENA region and worldwide.
Author: Lalit Kumar
Publisher: MDPI
ISBN: 3038978841
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 420
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Book Description
In a rapidly changing world, there is an ever-increasing need to monitor the Earth’s resources and manage it sustainably for future generations. Earth observation from satellites is critical to provide information required for informed and timely decision making in this regard. Satellite-based earth observation has advanced rapidly over the last 50 years, and there is a plethora of satellite sensors imaging the Earth at finer spatial and spectral resolutions as well as high temporal resolutions. The amount of data available for any single location on the Earth is now at the petabyte-scale. An ever-increasing capacity and computing power is needed to handle such large datasets. The Google Earth Engine (GEE) is a cloud-based computing platform that was established by Google to support such data processing. This facility allows for the storage, processing and analysis of spatial data using centralized high-power computing resources, allowing scientists, researchers, hobbyists and anyone else interested in such fields to mine this data and understand the changes occurring on the Earth’s surface. This book presents research that applies the Google Earth Engine in mining, storing, retrieving and processing spatial data for a variety of applications that include vegetation monitoring, cropland mapping, ecosystem assessment, and gross primary productivity, among others. Datasets used range from coarse spatial resolution data, such as MODIS, to medium resolution datasets (Worldview -2), and the studies cover the entire globe at varying spatial and temporal scales.
Author: Endalamaw Gashaw
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3346135187
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 75
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Book Description
Master's Thesis from the year 2019 in the subject Computer Science - Miscellaneous, University of Gondar (Atse Tewodros Cumpas), course: Information technology, language: English, abstract: Agricultural price predictions are an integral component of trade and policy analysis. As the prices of agricultural commodities directly influence the real income of farmers and it also affects the national foreign currency generate. Sesame is highly produced in some tropical and subtropical rain forest Ethiopia region. The thesis is to build a model that can predict market prices of sesame commodity. Based on the complexity of sesame price prediction; the predicting models used for crop are linear regression, support vector machine and neural network models to predict a future price. A data have been taken from the ECX website (www.ecx.com.et) in the interval of January 2013 to March 2019. The total numbers of records selected to the experiments are 5,327 daily prices are used for proposed models. The experimental result had evaluated by RMSE, MSE and CC metrics. We follow six phase CRISP-DM process model for sesame price prediction. The process phase are, business understanding, data understanding, data preparation, modeling, evaluating and deployment.
Author: R. Sneyers
Publisher: Unipub
ISBN: 9789263104151
Category : Climatology
Languages : en
Pages : 192
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Book Description
It is no longer disputed nowadays that mathematical statistics is the main tool to be used in climatology. Mathematical statistics is in fact the science of random models and the purpose of the statistics analysis of series of observations is to from among the models which science makes available, the one which bes represents the behaviour of the observed phenomenon. Thi atitude may be justifed in two ways. From the theoretical point of view, the representation of the observad phenomenon by a model depending on aminimum number of paramenters anables objective statistical conslusions to be compared with the physical theories put forward, iether to confirm their validity or to reveal weaknesse: thus statistical analysis appears as a means for progress in the ofresearch. From the practical point view, due to the efficiency of methods of statistical analysis, their utilization ensures that the best use is made of the information accumulated dy the series of observations and that the maximum benefic will be derived from the capital represented by this information. If we think of the investments and operational cost which have been approved for the acquisition of the series of observations and of the economic value of these, which is continually demonstrated in the applications of meteorology and climatology, the necessity of such a position becomes obvious.
Author: David Molden
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9781032921501
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The Nile is the world's longest river and sustains the livelihoods of millions of people across ten countries in Africa. This book provides unique and up-to-date insights on agriculture, water resources, governance, poverty, productivity, upstream-downstream linkages, innovations, future plans and their implications.
