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Author: Frank Dignum
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030763978
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 453
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Book Description
Simulating for a crisis is far more than creating a simulation of a crisis situation. In order for a simulation to be useful during a crisis, it should be created within the space of a few days to allow decision makers to use it as quickly as possible. Furthermore, during a crisis the aim is not to optimize just one factor, but to balance various, interdependent aspects of life. In the COVID-19 crisis, decisions had to be made concerning e.g. whether to close schools and restaurants, and the (economic) consequences of a 3 or 4-week lock-down had to be considered. As such, rather than one simulation focusing on a very limited aspect, a framework allowing the simulation of several different scenarios focusing on different aspects of the crisis was required. Moreover, the results of the simulations needed to be easily understandable and explainable: if a simulation indicates that closing schools has no effect, this can only be used if the decision makers can explain why this is the case. This book describes how a simulation framework was created for the COVID-19 crisis, and demonstrates how it was used to simulate a wide range of scenarios that were relevant for decision makers at the time. It also discusses the usefulness of the approach, and explains the decisions that had to be made along the way as well as the trade-offs. Lastly, the book examines the lessons learned and the directions for the further development of social simulation frameworks to make them better suited to crisis situations, and to foster a more resilient society.
Author: Frank Dignum
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030763978
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 453
Get Book Here
Book Description
Simulating for a crisis is far more than creating a simulation of a crisis situation. In order for a simulation to be useful during a crisis, it should be created within the space of a few days to allow decision makers to use it as quickly as possible. Furthermore, during a crisis the aim is not to optimize just one factor, but to balance various, interdependent aspects of life. In the COVID-19 crisis, decisions had to be made concerning e.g. whether to close schools and restaurants, and the (economic) consequences of a 3 or 4-week lock-down had to be considered. As such, rather than one simulation focusing on a very limited aspect, a framework allowing the simulation of several different scenarios focusing on different aspects of the crisis was required. Moreover, the results of the simulations needed to be easily understandable and explainable: if a simulation indicates that closing schools has no effect, this can only be used if the decision makers can explain why this is the case. This book describes how a simulation framework was created for the COVID-19 crisis, and demonstrates how it was used to simulate a wide range of scenarios that were relevant for decision makers at the time. It also discusses the usefulness of the approach, and explains the decisions that had to be made along the way as well as the trade-offs. Lastly, the book examines the lessons learned and the directions for the further development of social simulation frameworks to make them better suited to crisis situations, and to foster a more resilient society.
Author: Uriel Rosenthal
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401133980
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 186
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Book Description
Author: Beard, Jon W.
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1799872122
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
Properly addressing a crisis requires more than just guesswork and a reaction; it requires a properly structured approach supported by good information. With the rapid evolution of information systems and information technology, including hardware, software, the internet, and communications capabilities, there are abundant opportunities to apply these technology capabilities and resources to support and improve responses to and management of crisis situations. Approaches to crisis response and management include the design, development, implementation, and application of systematic methodologies on how to respond, as well as how to apply information systems to enhance and extend responses to crises. Information Technology Applications for Crisis Response and Management provides a multi-disciplinary perspective on current and cutting-edge research exploring and extending our understanding of the use of information systems and information technology to support responses to crises of all kinds—accidental, intentional, and acts of nature. The chapters in this book focus on the design, development, implementation, use, and evaluation of information system technologies and methodologies to support crisis response and management, as well as technology management-related issues for crisis response and management. While highlighting technical, cognitive, organizational, and human-focused issues within the field, this book is ideal for policymakers, IT specialists, government officials, crisis response teams, managers, practitioners, researchers, academicians, and students interested in the use of information technology and information systems to support diverse types of crises.
Author: Kate Hartley
Publisher: Kogan Page Publishers
ISBN: 0749486821
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
Communicate in a Crisis is the definitive guide for any PR or marketing professional to recognize, plan and respond to a sudden wildfire of consumer-led reaction, 'manipulated outrage' sparked from interaction on news feed algorithms, fuelled by social media and the constant demand for an instantaneous response. This book turns the traditional crisis management approach on its head, starting by understanding changing consumer behaviours and the new 'threat' for brands, then outlining practical steps to prepare, synchronize and execute a coordinated brand response across all channels - under pressure. It reveals why we love to hate our favourite brands, how to recognize a day to day problem from a crisis, and offers valuable advice, such as using influencers and brand advocates to address social media trolls, rumours and the impact of fake news. With unique case studies, interviews and anecdotes from global leaders, Communicate in a Crisis will embed a bottom-up culture of long-term reputation management, always ready to face the unexpected.
Author: Paul K. Davis
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119484979
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 908
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Book Description
This volume describes frontiers in social-behavioral modeling for contexts as diverse as national security, health, and on-line social gaming. Recent scientific and technological advances have created exciting opportunities for such improvements. However, the book also identifies crucial scientific, ethical, and cultural challenges to be met if social-behavioral modeling is to achieve its potential. Doing so will require new methods, data sources, and technology. The volume discusses these, including those needed to achieve and maintain high standards of ethics and privacy. The result should be a new generation of modeling that will advance science and, separately, aid decision-making on major social and security-related subjects despite the myriad uncertainties and complexities of social phenomena. Intended to be relatively comprehensive in scope, the volume balances theory-driven, data-driven, and hybrid approaches. The latter may be rapidly iterative, as when artificial-intelligence methods are coupled with theory-driven insights to build models that are sound, comprehensible and usable in new situations. With the intent of being a milestone document that sketches a research agenda for the next decade, the volume draws on the wisdom, ideas and suggestions of many noted researchers who draw in turn from anthropology, communications, complexity science, computer science, defense planning, economics, engineering, health systems, medicine, neuroscience, physics, political science, psychology, public policy and sociology. In brief, the volume discusses: Cutting-edge challenges and opportunities in modeling for social and behavioral science Special requirements for achieving high standards of privacy and ethics New approaches for developing theory while exploiting both empirical and computational data Issues of reproducibility, communication, explanation, and validation Special requirements for models intended to inform decision making about complex social systems
Author: John A. Sokolowski
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780470486986
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
one-of-a-kind introduction to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in the realm of international studies Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events provides an orientation to the theory and application of modeling and simulation techniques in social science disciplines. This book guides readers in developing quantitative and numeric representations of real-world events based on qualitative analysis. With an emphasis on gathering and mapping empirical data, the authors detail the steps needed for accurately analyzing global events and outline the selection and construction of the best model for understanding the event¿s data. Providing a theoretical foundation while also illustrating modern examples, the book contains three parts: Advancing Global Studies—introduces the what, when, and why of modeling and simulation and also explores its brief history, various uses, and some of the advantages and disadvantages of modeling and simulation in problem solving. In addition, the differences in qualitative and quantitative research methods, mapping data, and conducting model validation are also discussed. Modeling Paradigms—examines various methods of modeling including system dynamics, agent-based modeling, social network modeling, and game theory. This section also explores the theory and construction of these modeling paradigms, the fundamentals for their application, and various contexts for their use. Modeling Global Events—applies the modeling paradigms to four real-world events that are representative of several fundamental areas of social science studies: internal commotion within an anarchic state, a multi-layered study of the Solidarity movement in Poland, uni-lateral military intervention, and the issue of compellence and deterrence during a national security crisis. Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events is an excellent book for statistics, engineering, computer science, economics, and social sciences courses on modeling and simulation at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an insightful reference for professionals who would like to develop modeling and simulation skills for analyzing and communicating human behavior observed in real-world events and complex global case studies.
Author: Edward P. Borodzicz
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 264
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Book Description
This book has two aims. First, it shows how risk, crisis and security, may be linked in an organisational context. Second, it reviews the role of simulation and gaming in responding to these phenomena. Issues of risk management are implicit in every debate about how social services such as health, transport and public safety are to be managed, and how corporate activity is to be regulated. This book informs that debate by considering the relationships between risk and security. Includes case studies such as the Kings Cross underground disaster, September 11, Hong Kong race track fire, and Arthur Anderson and the London ambulance computer failure.
Author: David M. Gaba
Publisher: Elsevier Health Sciences
ISBN: 1455738093
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 434
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Book Description
The fully updated Crisis Management in Anesthesiology continues to provide updated insights on the latest theories, principles, and practices in anesthesiology. From anesthesiologists and nurse anesthetists to emergency physicians and residents, this medical reference book will effectively prepare you to handle any critical incident during anesthesia. - Identify and respond to a broad range of life-threatening situations with the updated Catalog of Critical Incidents, which outlines what may happen during surgery and details the steps necessary to respond to and resolve the crisis. - React quickly to a range of potential threats with an added emphasis on simulation of managing critical incidents. - Useful review for all anesthesia professionals of the core knowledge of diagnosis and management of many critical events. - Explore new topics in the ever-expanding anesthesia practice environment with a detailed chapter on debriefing. - eBook version included with purchase.
Author: Claus Beisbart
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319707663
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 1056
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Book Description
This unique volume introduces and discusses the methods of validating computer simulations in scientific research. The core concepts, strategies, and techniques of validation are explained by an international team of pre-eminent authorities, drawing on expertise from various fields ranging from engineering and the physical sciences to the social sciences and history. The work also offers new and original philosophical perspectives on the validation of simulations. Topics and features: introduces the fundamental concepts and principles related to the validation of computer simulations, and examines philosophical frameworks for thinking about validation; provides an overview of the various strategies and techniques available for validating simulations, as well as the preparatory steps that have to be taken prior to validation; describes commonly used reference points and mathematical frameworks applicable to simulation validation; reviews the legal prescriptions, and the administrative and procedural activities related to simulation validation; presents examples of best practice that demonstrate how methods of validation are applied in various disciplines and with different types of simulation models; covers important practical challenges faced by simulation scientists when applying validation methods and techniques; offers a selection of general philosophical reflections that explore the significance of validation from a broader perspective. This truly interdisciplinary handbook will appeal to a broad audience, from professional scientists spanning all natural and social sciences, to young scholars new to research with computer simulations. Philosophers of science, and methodologists seeking to increase their understanding of simulation validation, will also find much to benefit from in the text.
Author: Dirk Helbing
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642240046
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 343
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Book Description
What are the principles that keep our society together? This question is even more difficult to answer than the long-standing question, what are the forces that keep our world together. However, the social challenges of humanity in the 21st century ranging from the financial crises to the impacts of globalization, require us to make fast progress in our understanding of how society works, and how our future can be managed in a resilient and sustainable way. This book can present only a few very first steps towards this ambitious goal. However, based on simple models of social interactions, one can already gain some surprising insights into the social, ``macro-level'' outcomes and dynamics that is implied by individual, ``micro-level'' interactions. Depending on the nature of these interactions, they may imply the spontaneous formation of social conventions or the birth of social cooperation, but also their sudden breakdown. This can end in deadly crowd disasters or tragedies of the commons (such as financial crises or environmental destruction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that classical modeling approaches (such as representative agent models) do not provide a sufficient understanding of the self-organization in social systems resulting from individual interactions. The consideration of randomness, spatial or network interdependencies, and nonlinear feedback effects turns out to be crucial to get fundamental insights into how social patterns and dynamics emerge. Given the explanation of sometimes counter-intuitive phenomena resulting from these features and their combination, our evolutionary modeling approach appears to be powerful and insightful. The chapters of this book range from a discussion of the modeling strategy for socio-economic systems over experimental issues up the right way of doing agent-based modeling. We furthermore discuss applications ranging from pedestrian and crowd dynamics over opinion formation, coordination, and cooperation up to conflict, and also address the response to information, issues of systemic risks in society and economics, and new approaches to manage complexity in socio-economic systems. Selected parts of this book had been previously published in peer reviewed journals.
