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Author: Ryan G. McClarren
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319995251
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 349
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Book Description
This textbook teaches the essential background and skills for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in a computational simulation, and for predicting the behavior of a system under those uncertainties. It addresses a critical knowledge gap in the widespread adoption of simulation in high-consequence decision-making throughout the engineering and physical sciences. Constructing sophisticated techniques for prediction from basic building blocks, the book first reviews the fundamentals that underpin later topics of the book including probability, sampling, and Bayesian statistics. Part II focuses on applying Local Sensitivity Analysis to apportion uncertainty in the model outputs to sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Part III demonstrates techniques for quantifying the impact of parametric uncertainties on a problem, specifically how input uncertainties affect outputs. The final section covers techniques for applying uncertainty quantification to make predictions under uncertainty, including treatment of epistemic uncertainties. It presents the theory and practice of predicting the behavior of a system based on the aggregation of data from simulation, theory, and experiment. The text focuses on simulations based on the solution of systems of partial differential equations and includes in-depth coverage of Monte Carlo methods, basic design of computer experiments, as well as regularized statistical techniques. Code references, in python, appear throughout the text and online as executable code, enabling readers to perform the analysis under discussion. Worked examples from realistic, model problems help readers understand the mechanics of applying the methods. Each chapter ends with several assignable problems. Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science fills the growing need for a classroom text for senior undergraduate and early-career graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences and supports independent study by researchers and professionals who must include uncertainty quantification and predictive science in the simulations they develop and/or perform.
Author: Ryan G. McClarren
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319995251
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 349
Get Book Here
Book Description
This textbook teaches the essential background and skills for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in a computational simulation, and for predicting the behavior of a system under those uncertainties. It addresses a critical knowledge gap in the widespread adoption of simulation in high-consequence decision-making throughout the engineering and physical sciences. Constructing sophisticated techniques for prediction from basic building blocks, the book first reviews the fundamentals that underpin later topics of the book including probability, sampling, and Bayesian statistics. Part II focuses on applying Local Sensitivity Analysis to apportion uncertainty in the model outputs to sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Part III demonstrates techniques for quantifying the impact of parametric uncertainties on a problem, specifically how input uncertainties affect outputs. The final section covers techniques for applying uncertainty quantification to make predictions under uncertainty, including treatment of epistemic uncertainties. It presents the theory and practice of predicting the behavior of a system based on the aggregation of data from simulation, theory, and experiment. The text focuses on simulations based on the solution of systems of partial differential equations and includes in-depth coverage of Monte Carlo methods, basic design of computer experiments, as well as regularized statistical techniques. Code references, in python, appear throughout the text and online as executable code, enabling readers to perform the analysis under discussion. Worked examples from realistic, model problems help readers understand the mechanics of applying the methods. Each chapter ends with several assignable problems. Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science fills the growing need for a classroom text for senior undergraduate and early-career graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences and supports independent study by researchers and professionals who must include uncertainty quantification and predictive science in the simulations they develop and/or perform.
Author: Michel Fathi
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030979407
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 3382
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Book Description
This handbook analyzes and develops methods and models to optimize solutions for energy access (for industry and the general world population alike) in terms of reliability and sustainability. With a focus on improving the performance of energy systems, it brings together state-of-the-art research on reliability enhancement, intelligent development, simulation and optimization, as well as sustainable development of energy systems. It helps energy stakeholders and professionals learn the methodologies needed to improve the reliability of energy supply-and-demand systems, achieve more efficient long-term operations, deal with uncertainties in energy systems, and reduce energy emissions. Highlighting novel models and their applications from leading experts in this important area, this book will appeal to researchers, students, and engineers in the various domains of smart energy systems and encourage them to pursue research and development in this exciting and highly relevant field.
Author: Ralph C. Smith
Publisher: SIAM
ISBN: 161197321X
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.
Author: Roger Ghanem
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783319123844
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The topic of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has witnessed massive developments in response to the promise of achieving risk mitigation through scientific prediction. It has led to the integration of ideas from mathematics, statistics and engineering being used to lend credence to predictive assessments of risk but also to design actions (by engineers, scientists and investors) that are consistent with risk aversion. The objective of this Handbook is to facilitate the dissemination of the forefront of UQ ideas to their audiences. We recognize that these audiences are varied, with interests ranging from theory to application, and from research to development and even execution.
Author: Yan Wang
Publisher: Woodhead Publishing
ISBN: 0081029411
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 604
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Book Description
Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.
Author: Ralph C. Smith
Publisher: SIAM
ISBN: 1611977843
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 571
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Book Description
Uncertainty quantification serves a fundamental role when establishing the predictive capabilities of simulation models. This book provides a comprehensive and unified treatment of the mathematical, statistical, and computational theory and methods employed to quantify uncertainties associated with models from a wide range of applications. Expanded and reorganized, the second edition includes advances in the field and provides a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification framework for models from science and engineering. It contains new chapters on random field representations, observation models, parameter identifiability and influence, active subspace analysis, and statistical surrogate models, and a completely revised chapter on local sensitivity analysis. Other updates to the second edition are the inclusion of over 100 exercises and many new examples — several of which include data — and UQ Crimes listed throughout the text to identify common misconceptions and guide readers entering the field. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications, Second Edition is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in mathematics, statistics, engineering, physical and biological sciences, operations research, and computer science. Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of probability, linear algebra, differential equations, and introductory numerical analysis. The book can be used as a primary text for a one-semester course on sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification or as a supplementary text for courses on surrogate and reduced-order model construction and parameter identifiability analysis.
Author: Maria Piarulli
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2832532098
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 233
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Book Description
Author: Feras A. Batarseh
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0323918824
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 602
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Book Description
AI Assurance: Towards Trustworthy, Explainable, Safe, and Ethical AI provides readers with solutions and a foundational understanding of the methods that can be applied to test AI systems and provide assurance. Anyone developing software systems with intelligence, building learning algorithms, or deploying AI to a domain-specific problem (such as allocating cyber breaches, analyzing causation at a smart farm, reducing readmissions at a hospital, ensuring soldiers' safety in the battlefield, or predicting exports of one country to another) will benefit from the methods presented in this book. As AI assurance is now a major piece in AI and engineering research, this book will serve as a guide for researchers, scientists and students in their studies and experimentation. Moreover, as AI is being increasingly discussed and utilized at government and policymaking venues, the assurance of AI systems—as presented in this book—is at the nexus of such debates. - Provides readers with an in-depth understanding of how to develop and apply Artificial Intelligence in a valid, explainable, fair and ethical manner - Includes various AI methods, including Deep Learning, Machine Learning, Reinforcement Learning, Computer Vision, Agent-Based Systems, Natural Language Processing, Text Mining, Predictive Analytics, Prescriptive Analytics, Knowledge-Based Systems, and Evolutionary Algorithms - Presents techniques for efficient and secure development of intelligent systems in a variety of domains, such as healthcare, cybersecurity, government, energy, education, and more - Covers complete example datasets that are associated with the methods and algorithms developed in the book
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309256348
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Book Description
Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ). In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results, the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.
Author: Pijush Samui
Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN: 0128165464
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 592
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Book Description
Handbook of Probabilistic Models carefully examines the application of advanced probabilistic models in conventional engineering fields. In this comprehensive handbook, practitioners, researchers and scientists will find detailed explanations of technical concepts, applications of the proposed methods, and the respective scientific approaches needed to solve the problem. This book provides an interdisciplinary approach that creates advanced probabilistic models for engineering fields, ranging from conventional fields of mechanical engineering and civil engineering, to electronics, electrical, earth sciences, climate, agriculture, water resource, mathematical sciences and computer sciences. Specific topics covered include minimax probability machine regression, stochastic finite element method, relevance vector machine, logistic regression, Monte Carlo simulations, random matrix, Gaussian process regression, Kalman filter, stochastic optimization, maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference, Bayesian update, kriging, copula-statistical models, and more. - Explains the application of advanced probabilistic models encompassing multidisciplinary research - Applies probabilistic modeling to emerging areas in engineering - Provides an interdisciplinary approach to probabilistic models and their applications, thus solving a wide range of practical problems
