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Author: Allan D. R. McQuarrie
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812385452
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 479
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Book Description
This important book describes procedures for selecting a model from a large set of competing statistical models. It includes model selection techniques for univariate and multivariate regression models, univariate and multivariate autoregressive models, nonparametric (including wavelets) and semiparametric regression models, and quasi-likelihood and robust regression models. Information-based model selection criteria are discussed, and small sample and asymptotic properties are presented. The book also provides examples and large scale simulation studies comparing the performances of information-based model selection criteria, bootstrapping, and cross-validation selection methods over a wide range of models.
Author: Allan D. R. McQuarrie
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9812385452
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 479
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Book Description
This important book describes procedures for selecting a model from a large set of competing statistical models. It includes model selection techniques for univariate and multivariate regression models, univariate and multivariate autoregressive models, nonparametric (including wavelets) and semiparametric regression models, and quasi-likelihood and robust regression models. Information-based model selection criteria are discussed, and small sample and asymptotic properties are presented. The book also provides examples and large scale simulation studies comparing the performances of information-based model selection criteria, bootstrapping, and cross-validation selection methods over a wide range of models.
Author: Benjamin Kedem
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471461687
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 361
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Book Description
A thorough review of the most current regression methods in time series analysis Regression methods have been an integral part of time series analysis for over a century. Recently, new developments have made major strides in such areas as non-continuous data where a linear model is not appropriate. This book introduces the reader to newer developments and more diverse regression models and methods for time series analysis. Accessible to anyone who is familiar with the basic modern concepts of statistical inference, Regression Models for Time Series Analysis provides a much-needed examination of recent statistical developments. Primary among them is the important class of models known as generalized linear models (GLM) which provides, under some conditions, a unified regression theory suitable for continuous, categorical, and count data. The authors extend GLM methodology systematically to time series where the primary and covariate data are both random and stochastically dependent. They introduce readers to various regression models developed during the last thirty years or so and summarize classical and more recent results concerning state space models. To conclude, they present a Bayesian approach to prediction and interpolation in spatial data adapted to time series that may be short and/or observed irregularly. Real data applications and further results are presented throughout by means of chapter problems and complements. Notably, the book covers: * Important recent developments in Kalman filtering, dynamic GLMs, and state-space modeling * Associated computational issues such as Markov chain, Monte Carlo, and the EM-algorithm * Prediction and interpolation * Stationary processes
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
ISBN: 0987507117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author: Christian Kleiber
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387773185
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 229
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Book Description
R is a language and environment for data analysis and graphics. It may be considered an implementation of S, an award-winning language initially - veloped at Bell Laboratories since the late 1970s. The R project was initiated by Robert Gentleman and Ross Ihaka at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, in the early 1990s, and has been developed by an international team since mid-1997. Historically, econometricians have favored other computing environments, some of which have fallen by the wayside, and also a variety of packages with canned routines. We believe that R has great potential in econometrics, both for research and for teaching. There are at least three reasons for this: (1) R is mostly platform independent and runs on Microsoft Windows, the Mac family of operating systems, and various ?avors of Unix/Linux, and also on some more exotic platforms. (2) R is free software that can be downloaded and installed at no cost from a family of mirror sites around the globe, the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN); hence students can easily install it on their own machines. (3) R is open-source software, so that the full source code is available and can be inspected to understand what it really does, learn from it, and modify and extend it. We also like to think that platform independence and the open-source philosophy make R an ideal environment for reproducible econometric research.
Author: William W. S. Wei
Publisher: Pearson
ISBN: 9780134995366
Category : Time-series analysis
Languages : en
Pages : 648
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Book Description
With its broad coverage of methodology, this comprehensive book is a useful learning and reference tool for those in applied sciences where analysis and research of time series is useful. Its plentiful examples show the operational details and purpose of a variety of univariate and multivariate time series methods. Numerous figures, tables and real-life time series data sets illustrate the models and methods useful for analyzing, modeling, and forecasting data collected sequentially in time. The text also offers a balanced treatment between theory and applications. Time Series Analysis is a thorough introduction to both time-domain and frequency-domain analyses of univariate and multivariate time series methods, with coverage of the most recently developed techniques in the field.
Author: Francesca Lazzeri
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111968238X
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
Learn how to apply the principles of machine learning to time series modeling with this indispensable resource Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python is an incisive and straightforward examination of one of the most crucial elements of decision-making in finance, marketing, education, and healthcare: time series modeling. Despite the centrality of time series forecasting, few business analysts are familiar with the power or utility of applying machine learning to time series modeling. Author Francesca Lazzeri, a distinguished machine learning scientist and economist, corrects that deficiency by providing readers with comprehensive and approachable explanation and treatment of the application of machine learning to time series forecasting. Written for readers who have little to no experience in time series forecasting or machine learning, the book comprehensively covers all the topics necessary to: Understand time series forecasting concepts, such as stationarity, horizon, trend, and seasonality Prepare time series data for modeling Evaluate time series forecasting models’ performance and accuracy Understand when to use neural networks instead of traditional time series models in time series forecasting Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python is full real-world examples, resources and concrete strategies to help readers explore and transform data and develop usable, practical time series forecasts. Perfect for entry-level data scientists, business analysts, developers, and researchers, this book is an invaluable and indispensable guide to the fundamental and advanced concepts of machine learning applied to time series modeling.
Author: Anders Milhoj
Publisher: SAS Institute
ISBN: 162959749X
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 210
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Book Description
Aimed at econometricians who have completed at least one course in time series modeling, this comprehensive book will teach you the time series analytical possibilities that SAS offers today. --
Author: Jan C. Willems
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642750079
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 254
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Book Description
The problem of obtaining dynamical models directly from an observed time-series occurs in many fields of application. There are a number of possible approaches to this problem. In this volume a number of such points of view are exposed: the statistical time series approach, a theory of guaranted performance, and finally a deterministic approximation approach. This volume is an out-growth of a number of get-togethers sponsered by the Systems and Decision Sciences group of the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. The hospitality and support of this organization is gratefully acknowledged. Jan Willems Groningen, the Netherlands May 1989 TABLE OF CONTENTS Linear System Identification- A Survey page 1 M. Deistler A Tutorial on Hankel-Norm Approximation 26 K. Glover A Deterministic Approach to Approximate Modelling 49 C. Heij and J. C. Willems Identification - a Theory of Guaranteed Estimates 135 A. B. Kurzhanski Statistical Aspects of Model Selection 215 R. Shibata Index 241 Addresses of Authors 246 LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION· A SURVEY M. DEISTLER Abstract In this paper we give an introductory survey on the theory of identification of (in general MIMO) linear systems from (discrete) time series data. The main parts are: Structure theory for linear systems, asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood type estimators, estimation of the dynamic specification by methods based on information criteria and finally, extensions and alternative approaches such as identification of unstable systems and errors-in-variables. Keywords Linear systems, parametrization, maximum likelihood estimation, information criteria, errors-in-variables.
Author: Paul S.P. Cowpertwait
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387886982
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 262
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Book Description
This book gives you a step-by-step introduction to analysing time series using the open source software R. Each time series model is motivated with practical applications, and is defined in mathematical notation. Once the model has been introduced it is used to generate synthetic data, using R code, and these generated data are then used to estimate its parameters. This sequence enhances understanding of both the time series model and the R function used to fit the model to data. Finally, the model is used to analyse observed data taken from a practical application. By using R, the whole procedure can be reproduced by the reader. All the data sets used in the book are available on the website http://staff.elena.aut.ac.nz/Paul-Cowpertwait/ts/. The book is written for undergraduate students of mathematics, economics, business and finance, geography, engineering and related disciplines, and postgraduate students who may need to analyse time series as part of their taught programme or their research.
Author: Peter J. Brockwell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475725264
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
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Book Description
Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
