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Author: Roger B. Myerson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262043122
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 569
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Book Description
An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.
Author: Roger B. Myerson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262043122
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 569
Get Book Here
Book Description
An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.
Author: Roger B. Myerson
Publisher: Duxbury Press
ISBN: 9780534423810
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 397
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Book Description
Learn to use probability in complex realistic situations with PROBABILITY MODELS FOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS. This introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions uses Microsoft Excel spreadsheets for the analytic work. As a result of the emphasis on spreadsheet modeling, you'll also develop sophisticated spreadsheet skills.
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139952129
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 421
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Book Description
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
Author: Neil Thomson
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780534420451
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
Author: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. National Meeting
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Industrial management
Languages : en
Pages : 340
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Book Description
Author: Michael J. Evans
Publisher: Macmillan
ISBN: 9780716747420
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 704
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Book Description
Unlike traditional introductory math/stat textbooks, Probability and Statistics: The Science of Uncertainty brings a modern flavor based on incorporating the computer to the course and an integrated approach to inference. From the start the book integrates simulations into its theoretical coverage, and emphasizes the use of computer-powered computation throughout.* Math and science majors with just one year of calculus can use this text and experience a refreshing blend of applications and theory that goes beyond merely mastering the technicalities. They'll get a thorough grounding in probability theory, and go beyond that to the theory of statistical inference and its applications. An integrated approach to inference is presented that includes the frequency approach as well as Bayesian methodology. Bayesian inference is developed as a logical extension of likelihood methods. A separate chapter is devoted to the important topic of model checking and this is applied in the context of the standard applied statistical techniques. Examples of data analyses using real-world data are presented throughout the text. A final chapter introduces a number of the most important stochastic process models using elementary methods. *Note: An appendix in the book contains Minitab code for more involved computations. The code can be used by students as templates for their own calculations. If a software package like Minitab is used with the course then no programming is required by the students.
Author: Alberto Leon-Garcia
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN: 0131471228
Category : Electric engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 833
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Book Description
While helping students to develop their problem-solving skills, the author motivates students with practical applications from various areas of ECE that demonstrate the relevance of probability theory to engineering practice.
Author: Jack R Benjamin
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486780724
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 704
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Book Description
"This text covers the development of decision theory and related applications of probability. Extensive examples and illustrations cultivate students' appreciation for applications, including strength of materials, soil mechanics, construction planning, and water-resource design. Emphasis on fundamentals makes the material accessible to students trained in classical statistics and provides a brief introduction to probability. 1970 edition"--
Author: Andrew Gelman
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439840954
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 677
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Book Description
Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.
Author: Charles A. Holt
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691188971
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 696
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Book Description
From a pioneer in experimental economics, an expanded and updated edition of a textbook that brings economic experiments into the classroom Economics is rapidly becoming a more experimental science, and the best way to convey insights from this research is to engage students in classroom simulations that motivate subsequent discussions and reading. In this expanded and updated second edition of Markets, Games, and Strategic Behavior, Charles Holt, one of the leaders in experimental economics, provides an unparalleled introduction to the study of economic behavior, organized around risky decisions, games of strategy, and economic markets that can be simulated in class. Each chapter is based on a key experiment, presented with accessible examples and just enough theory. Featuring innovative applications from the lab and the field, the book introduces new research on a wide range of topics. Core chapters provide an introduction to the experimental analysis of markets and strategic decisions made in the shadow of risk or conflict. Instructors can then pick and choose among topics focused on bargaining, game theory, social preferences, industrial organization, public choice and voting, asset market bubbles, and auctions. Based on decades of teaching experience, this is the perfect book for any undergraduate course in experimental economics or behavioral game theory. New material on topics such as matching, belief elicitation, repeated games, prospect theory, probabilistic choice, macro experiments, and statistical analysis Participatory experiments that connect behavioral theory and laboratory research Largely self-contained chapters that can each be covered in a single class Guidance for instructors on setting up classroom experiments, with either hand-run procedures or free online software End-of-chapter problems, including some conceptual-design questions, with hints or partial solutions provided
