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Author: Hans-Martin Krolzig
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 364251684X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 369
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Book Description
This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.
Author: Hans-Martin Krolzig
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 364251684X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 369
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.
Author: George Xianzhi Yuan
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811223211
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 274
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Book Description
In 2020, the global lockdowns caused by the COVID-19, or coronavirus, pandemic had resulted in a sharp drop in demand for crude oil. This impact was so severe that on April 8, 2020, a proposal to update the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME) trading rule to permit negative prices was applied to CME's WTI Oil futures contracts; this led to a novel phenomenon in which the closing clearing price of WTI Oil May future was $-37.63/barrel based on fewer than 400 contracts' trading volume in the last three minutes, reflecting less than 0.2% of the total trading contracts volume on April 20, 2020. This occurrence of negative closing clearing price for CME's WTI Oil futures trading, cannot be explained simply by just the principle of supply and demand; instead, it highlights vulnerabilities caused by CME's allowance of negative price trading (based on its trading platform), a decision which brings potential and fundamental challenges to the global financial system.This event challenges not just our basic concepts of 'value' and trading 'price' of commodities and goods that underline our understanding of the framework for the invisible hand and general equilibrium theory in economics established by a few generations of scholars since Adam Smith in 1776 for market economies, but also have wider implications on the fundamentals that underpin our ideas of value and labor in the organization, activity, and behavior of civilizations and individual liberties.The scope of this book is limited to covering the impact of the negative oil futures derivatives' trading between April 20 and 21, 2020. This book focuses on exploring the issues, challenges, and possible impacts on global financial markets due to the negative clearing prices of WTI Oil futures contracts and related problems from different perspectives. Topics covered include the responsibilities and liabilities of the CME; critique to the fundamental theory of economics and the modern understanding of value and labor; and challenges to the global financial systems and businesses and introduction to new methods of application.
Author: Robert McNally
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231543689
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Author: Fan Conglai
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1040222331
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 271
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Book Description
By applying modern monetary theories to China’s reality, this book reviews the development practice of China’s monetary policy and discusses the transitional goals of China’s monetary policy in the new stage of high-quality economic development. The book focuses on the formation mechanism of China’s inflation from the perspective of learning expectations, adaptive learning and dual labor market structure. It examines the monetary policy objectives of inflation management in an open economy, analyzes the causes of China’s price fluctuations from a global perspective and discusses the optimal policy space of the optimal RME exchange rate regime and the synergy between finance and business cycles. The author proposes a policy framework of capital regulation to deal with financial shocks and provides monetary policy options to deal with financial and business cycles. This work helps readers to understand the internal theoretical logic of the target transition of China’s monetary policy framework and points out that China’s monetary policy reforms are driven by the economic contradictions it faces at different stages of development. The title will provide references for scholars, students and policymakers interested in China’s monetary policy and provide experience and guidance for other developing countries to set their monetary policy targets and promote the transition of the monetary system.
Author: Mark Watson
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199549494
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 432
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Book Description
A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics
Author: Randall W. Hardy
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429726333
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 102
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Book Description
Much has been written recently about China's emergence as a potential oil power. Comparisons have ranged from those that picture China as another Middle East, with a Middle East-like impact on future global oil markets, to more modest images of an oil-producing nation that can meet its rapidly expanding internal needs through the late 1980s and still have some oil for export to its neighbor, Japan. Yet to fulfill even the latter prediction, the People's Republic of China will have to surmount a series of substantial political and technical obstacles. This book identifies those constraints, assesses the likelihood of China's overcoming them, examines the incentives for increasing Chinese petroleum exports, and analyzes the role such exports could play in Peking's foreign policy.
Author: H.H. Wang
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080529119
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
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Book Description
This authoritative book on China's oil demand and government policies and practices rests on two essential foundations: first and foremost on the author's considerable knowledge of China's oil situation and prospects, together with his access to Chinese energy literature and data; and secondly, on that insight afforded to him and, therefore, his readers from his fluency in Chinese.The author analyzes the Chinese oil market and the rising pressure on Beijing to reform policies which constrain China's ability to meet soaring demand and to pay for crucial imports at a time of growing political and economic uncertainties. Dr Wang acknowledges the importance of China meeting its growing domestic oil demand, if at all possible, through national production. The sheer weight of China's population, and its burgeoning requirements as industrialization spreads into most regions, dwarfs the needs of others and places unprecedented strain on international oil trades.The author stresses the fact that the outcome is hard to define, yet the time required to tackle the nation's energy needs is not limitless. Moreover, he reminds the reader of the perennial difficulty in meeting widely disparate economic and energy needs in different regions of the vast country.
Author: 中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所
Publisher: 社会科学文献出版社
ISBN: 752011564X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 262
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Book Description
《欧亚研究（2017）》为中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所英文辑刊（中文名称：欧亚研究，英文名称：Euro-Asian Studies），选择2016年度主要骨干研究人员的文章共计10篇，组织力量翻译成英文安排出版。2017年开始安排一年出版两期。俄欧亚所选定文章后，由我社组织翻译成英文并安排编辑出版。2017年开始一年出版两期，主要包括： 1.“普京主义”析论庞大鹏 2.俄罗斯再工业化问题探析郭晓琼 3.中俄战略协作模式：形成、特点与提升柳丰华 4.俄罗斯与亚太经合组织关系研究李勇慧 5.日本与中亚及外高加索地区的能源关系：政策及实践肖斌、张晓慧 6.中国中东欧研究的几个问题朱晓中 7.当前乌克兰政治基本特征与影响因素赵会荣 8.俄国孤立主义：意识形态与历史心理张昊琦
Author: ZENG Lingliang
Publisher: 社会科学文献出版社
ISBN: 7509789117
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 396
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Book Description
本書是中國促進國際法治報告（2015年）的英文版，旨在系統梳理近年來國際法治的新發展，著重闡述中國在國際法治的各個重要領域所表明的理念、堅持的原則和立場，以及採取的具體行動，系統展示了中國對促進國際法治做出的重要貢獻。全書由中國與國家間關係法治、中國與國際經濟關係法治、中國與國際民商事法治、系統闡述中國國際法的教學和傳播四部分組成。
Author: XIAO Gang
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000405206
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 137
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Book Description
Centering on the investment and financing infrastructure of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this book puts forth the basic principles and general objectives of constructing a new investment and financing system of this magnitude. Beginning with a succinct analysis of the practical issues faced while developing the BRI’s investment and financing system, the author puts forward several approaches to optimizing and reestablishing the system for the further advancement of investment and financing among and beyond the Belt and Road countries. Topics include credit rules, management and control systems, investment protection, dispute settlement and risk assessment while establishing a new mechanism that helps resolve debt defaults, checks for potential corruption and bribery, fosters new growth, and enhances information transparency. The book will be a practical reference for researchers interested in the Belt and Road Initiative and world investment and finance, as well as policymakers, financial institutions and enterprises relevant to the BRI.
