Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe PDF Download
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Author: John H. Rogers
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Convergence (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
"If price levels are initially different across the euro area, convergence to a common level of prices would imply that inflation will be higher in countries where prices are initially low. Price level convergence thus provides a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation, a worrisome development under the ECBs "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy. I present direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set, and then investigate how much of the recent divergence of national inflation rates can be explained by price level convergence. I show that between 1990 and 1999 prices did become less dispersed in the euro area. Convergence is especially evident for traded goods, and more in the first half of the 1990s than the second half. By some measures, traded goods price dispersion across the euro area is now close to that across U.S. cities. Despite an on-going process of convergence, deviations from the law of one price are large. Finally, I find a statistically-significant and robust negative relationship between the 1999 price level and 2000 inflation rate in Europe, and that the contribution of price level convergence to explaining inflation differentials is often quite important economically. Still, factors other than price convergence explain most of the cross-country inflation differences."
Author: John H. Rogers
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Convergence (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
"If price levels are initially different across the euro area, convergence to a common level of prices would imply that inflation will be higher in countries where prices are initially low. Price level convergence thus provides a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation, a worrisome development under the ECBs "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy. I present direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set, and then investigate how much of the recent divergence of national inflation rates can be explained by price level convergence. I show that between 1990 and 1999 prices did become less dispersed in the euro area. Convergence is especially evident for traded goods, and more in the first half of the 1990s than the second half. By some measures, traded goods price dispersion across the euro area is now close to that across U.S. cities. Despite an on-going process of convergence, deviations from the law of one price are large. Finally, I find a statistically-significant and robust negative relationship between the 1999 price level and 2000 inflation rate in Europe, and that the contribution of price level convergence to explaining inflation differentials is often quite important economically. Still, factors other than price convergence explain most of the cross-country inflation differences."
Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484338499
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.
Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publisher: Peterson Institute
ISBN: 9780881323337
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 132
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Book Description
Price divergence is readily apparent to anyone who shops. Travelers from Manchester to London, or from Chicago to Paris, are hit by sticker shock. Products ranging from London Fog raincoats to Viagra are available over the Internet at half their retail store prices. Common experience tells us that prices for identical products differ between countries, between cities, even between neighboring shops. On the other hand, common experience also tells us that open markets and greater competition will force a degree of price convergence, if not identical prices. This monograph presents speculative calculations that illustrate potential benefits from price convergence between countries. The authors take a fresh look at global economic integration by examining existing price divergence, and possible price convergence, across a range of consumer goods and then calculate the potential benefits of price convergence on a country-by-country basis and for the world as a whole. This study examines the potential benefits from price convergence resulting from more competition and market integration, not perfect competition and market integration. The authors calculate these benefits assuming that the world economy can attain the same degree of competition and market integration-and hence price convergence-as exists within the United States.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Mads Kieler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451851537
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
The ECB's objective of medium-term inflation below 2 percent has been portrayed by critics as ambiguous, asymmetric, and excessively stringent. This paper attempts a comprehensive evaluation of the trade-offs for the euro area and finds that: (1) in terms of guiding inflation expectations and policymaking, the current definition has functioned much as would an inflation target centered on 1 1/2-1 3/4 percent; (2) the absence of a specific (point) target for medium-term inflation has encumbered the communication of monetary policy; and (3) a target toward the upper end of the ECB's price-stability range would seem, at least with the current membership of EMU, to strike a judicious balance between the benefits of price stability, on the one hand, and the need to assist relative price and wage adjustment across EMU and safeguard against deflation, on the other hand.
Author: J. Fitoussi
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230006272
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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Book Description
The time has come to open a lucid debate on the ways and means to make Europe better deliver democracy and sustainable growth. The Report on the State of the European Union examines the progress of European integration and focus on economic aspects of the process. This volume explores the themes of: democracy and legitimacy, convergence and cohesion, macroeconomic policies and social integration. the report is written in an accessible way and will be a useful resource for academics, students, policymakers, journalists, and government advisors.
Author: A. Deardorff
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230522866
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 240
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Book Description
This volume collects selected papers on the European Union from the 13th Congress of the International Economic Association held in Lisbon, September 2002. It starts with an address by Romano Prodi, President of the European Commission, who sets the tone for the other papers by describing and evaluating two of the greatest accomplishments of the EU: economic and monetary union, and EU enlargement. Other authors deal in detail with various aspects of these and other issues, using a mixture of theoretical, empirical, and other tools.
Author: Reiner Martin
Publisher: Palgrave MacMillan
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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Book Description
"Real convergence has gained substantial momentum in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe. Countries in these regions are all involved in the European integration process, either as recently joined EU member states, candidate countries, or potential candidates for membership. It has therefore become increasingly important to consider methods of catching up, to explore cross-country differences and to review key policy challenges for the convergence process. Through considering these issues in detail, prospects for future adoption of the euro can also be assessed. This book brings together policymakers, high-level practitioners, academics, and experts from central banks and international institutions in order to explore the key policy challenges facing the convergence process. Contributions focus especially on inflation, growth, migration and the balance of payments. This book is an essential read for all scholars interested in the transition of central, eastern and south-eastern Europe, and in the process of EU integration and enlargement."--Book cover.
Author: Richard Tilly
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540740554
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 366
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Book Description
Experts present their analyses of historical developments as well as new economic challenges for the European Union. Contributors, representatives from major banks and academia, point out the dramatic economic shifts among and within Europe, Asia, and the United States. At the bottom line of this EU analysis are major implications for investors, managers, policymakers, and the public at large in both the EU and the rest of the world.
Author: Vizhdan Boranova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513521276
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that influence the strength of the passthrough from labor costs to prices. Historically, wage growth has led to higher inflation, but the impact has weakened since 2009. Empirical analysis suggests that the passthrough from wage growth to inflation is significantly lower in periods of subdued inflation and inflation expectations, greater competitive pressures, and robust corporate profitability. Thus the recent pickup in wage growth is likely to have a more muted impact on inflation than in the past.
