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Author: Bernard Dumas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.
Author: Bernard Dumas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
Abstract: Black and Scholes (1973) implied volatilities tend to be systematically related to the option's exercise price and time to expiration. Derman and Kani (1994), Dupire (1994), and Rubinstein (1994) attribute this behavior to the fact that the Black-Scholes constant volatility assumption is violated in practice. These authors hypothesize that the volatility of the underlying asset's return is a deterministic function of the asset price and time and develop the deterministic volatility function (DVF) option valuation model, which has the potential of fitting the observed cross-section of option prices exactly. Using a sample of S & P 500 index options during the period June 1988 through December 1993, we evaluate the economic significance of the implied deterministic volatility function by examining the predictive and hedging performance of the DV option valuation model. We find that its performance is worse than that of an ad hoc Black-Scholes model with variable implied volatilities.
Author: Florian Auinger
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3658089695
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 102
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Book Description
Florian Auinger highlights the core weaknesses and sources of criticism regarding the VIX Index as an indicator for the future development of financial market volatility. Furthermore, it is proven that there is no statistically significant causal relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500. As a consequence, the forecastability is not given in both directions. Obviously, there must be at least one additional variable that has a strong influence on market volatility such as emotions which, according to financial market experts, are considered to play a more and more important role in investment decisions.
Author: Robert C Merton
Publisher: Legare Street Press
ISBN: 9781015784017
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Author: Euan Sinclair
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470181990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.
Author: Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470091401
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 864
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Book Description
In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Author: Matthias R. Fengler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540305912
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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Book Description
This book offers recent advances in the theory of implied volatility and refined semiparametric estimation strategies and dimension reduction methods for functional surfaces. The first part is devoted to smile-consistent pricing approaches. The second part covers estimation techniques that are natural candidates to meet the challenges in implied volatility surfaces. Empirical investigations, simulations, and pictures illustrate the concepts.
Author: Ser-Huang Poon
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470856157
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
Author: Nikolai Dokuchaev
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429948867
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 237
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Book Description
Pathwise estimation and inference for diffusion market models discusses contemporary techniques for inferring, from options and bond prices, the market participants' aggregate view on important financial parameters such as implied volatility, discount rate, future interest rate, and their uncertainty thereof. The focus is on the pathwise inference methods that are applicable to a sole path of the observed prices and do not require the observation of an ensemble of such paths. This book is pitched at the level of senior undergraduate students undertaking research at honors year, and postgraduate candidates undertaking Master’s or PhD degree by research. From a research perspective, this book reaches out to academic researchers from backgrounds as diverse as mathematics and probability, econometrics and statistics, and computational mathematics and optimization whose interest lie in analysis and modelling of financial market data from a multi-disciplinary approach. Additionally, this book is also aimed at financial market practitioners participating in capital market facing businesses who seek to keep abreast with and draw inspiration from novel approaches in market data analysis. The first two chapters of the book contains introductory material on stochastic analysis and the classical diffusion stock market models. The remaining chapters discuss more special stock and bond market models and special methods of pathwise inference for market parameter for different models. The final chapter describes applications of numerical methods of inference of bond market parameters to forecasting of short rate. Nikolai Dokuchaev is an associate professor in Mathematics and Statistics at Curtin University. His research interests include mathematical and statistical finance, stochastic analysis, PDEs, control, and signal processing. Lin Yee Hin is a practitioner in the capital market facing industry. His research interests include econometrics, non-parametric regression, and scientific computing.
Author: Jim Gatheral
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781119202073
Category : Options (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 179
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Book Description
Author: Thi Le
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030712427
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 350
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Book Description
This book focuses on the impact of high-frequency data in forecasting market volatility and options price. New technologies have created opportunities to obtain better, faster, and more efficient datasets to explore financial market phenomena at the most acceptable data levels. It provides reliable intraday data supporting financial investment decisions across different assets classes and instruments consisting of commodities, derivatives, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. This book emphasises four key areas, (1) estimating intraday implied volatility using ultra-high frequency (5-minutes frequency) currency options to capture traders' trading behaviour, (2) computing realised volatility based on 5-minute frequency currency price to obtain speculators' speculation attitude, (3) examining the ability of implied volatility to subsume market information through forecasting realised volatility and (4) evaluating the predictive power of implied volatility for pricing currency options. This is a must-read for academics and professionals who want to improve their skills and outcomes in trading options.
