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Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 616
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Book Description
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 616
Get Book Here
Book Description
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
Author: Neil R. Ericsson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models, including static and dynamic models, and single-equation and multiple-equation models. Empirical models of the U.S. trade account, U.K. inflation, and U.K. real national income help clarify the issues involved.
Author: Maurizio Catino
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107027039
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 271
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Book Description
The book examines the mechanisms that generate myopia in organizations and explores how organizations can foresee and contain unexpected events.
Author: Alistair I. Mees
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780817641634
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 490
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Book Description
This book describes the state of the art in nonlinear dynamical reconstruction theory. The chapters are based upon a workshop held at the Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge University, UK, in late 1998. The book's chapters present theory and methods topics by leading researchers in applied and theoretical nonlinear dynamics, statistics, probability, and systems theory. Features and topics: * disentangling uncertainty and error: the predictability of nonlinear systems * achieving good nonlinear models * delay reconstructions: dynamics vs. statistics * introduction to Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis * latest results in extracting dynamical behavior via Markov Models * data compression, dynamics and stationarity Professionals, researchers, and advanced graduates in nonlinear dynamics, probability, optimization, and systems theory will find the book a useful resource and guide to current developments in the subject.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309171822
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.
Author: David F. Hendry
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262582421
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236
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Book Description
How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Author: Jamie L. Pietruska
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022647500X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 295
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Book Description
Introduction: crisis of certainty -- Cotton guesses -- The daily "probabilities"--Weather prophecies -- Economies of the future -- Promises of love and money -- Epilogue: specters of uncertainty
Author: Jens Beckert
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192552759
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 421
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Book Description
Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Walter A Friedman
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691159114
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
A gripping history of the pioneers who sought to use science to predict financial markets The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself.
