Possibility Theory and the Risk PDF Download
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Author: Irina Georgescu
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642247407
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 130
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Book Description
The book deals with some of the fundamental issues of risk assessment in grid computing environments. The book describes the development of a hybrid probabilistic and possibilistic model for assessing the success of a computing task in a grid environment
Author: Jan Grandell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461390583
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 186
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Book Description
Risk theory, which deals with stochastic models of an insurance business, is a classical application of probability theory. The fundamental problem in risk theory is to investigate the ruin possibility of the risk business. Traditionally the occurrence of the claims is described by a Poisson process and the cost of the claims by a sequence of random variables. This book is a treatise of risk theory with emphasis on models where the occurrence of the claims is described by more general point processes than the Poisson process, such as renewal processes, Cox processes and general stationary point processes. In the Cox case the possibility of risk fluctuation is explicitly taken into account. The presentation is based on modern probabilistic methods rather than on analytic methods. The theory is accompanied with discussions on practical evaluation of ruin probabilities and statistical estimation. Many numerical illustrations of the results are given.
Author: Frank H. Knight
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN: 1602060053
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 401
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Book Description
A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118489586
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 212
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Book Description
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Author: Lesley Walls
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1315349167
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 4767
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Book Description
The safe and reliable performance of many systems with which we interact daily has been achieved through the analysis and management of risk. From complex infrastructures to consumer durables, from engineering systems and technologies used in transportation, health, energy, chemical, oil, gas, aerospace, maritime, defence and other sectors, the management of risk during design, manufacture, operation and decommissioning is vital. Methods and models to support risk-informed decision-making are well established but are continually challenged by technology innovations, increasing interdependencies, and changes in societal expectations. Risk, Reliability and Safety contains papers describing innovations in theory and practice contributed to the scientific programme of the European Safety and Reliability conference (ESREL 2016), held at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland (25—29 September 2016). Authors include scientists, academics, practitioners, regulators and other key individuals with expertise and experience relevant to specific areas. Papers include domain specific applications as well as general modelling methods. Papers cover evaluation of contemporary solutions, exploration of future challenges, and exposition of concepts, methods and processes. Topics include human factors, occupational health and safety, dynamic and systems reliability modelling, maintenance optimisation, uncertainty analysis, resilience assessment, risk and crisis management.
Author: Marvin Rausand
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119377234
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 784
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Book Description
Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.
Author: C. A. Brebbia
Publisher: WIT Press
ISBN: 1845641728
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 401
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Book Description
Covering a series of important topics, which are of current research interest and have practical applications, this book examines all aspects of risk analysis and hazard mitigation, ranging from specific assessment of risk to mitigation associated with both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Originally presented at the Fifth International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, the papers cover topics such as: Risk Mitigation; Estimation of Risk; Hazard Prevention; Management and Control; Data Collection and Analysis; Information Society Technologies in Risk; Man-made Risk; Seismic Hazard; Marine and Maritime Risk; Landslides and Slope Movements; Floods and Droughts; Soil, Water and Air Contamination; Health Issues; Policy and Decision Making; Risk and Sustainability and Operational Issues such as Energy Response; Risk Communication; Risk Perception.
Author: Didier Dubois
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461544297
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 660
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Book Description
Fundamentals of Fuzzy Sets covers the basic elements of fuzzy set theory. Its four-part organization provides easy referencing of recent as well as older results in the field. The first part discusses the historical emergence of fuzzy sets, and delves into fuzzy set connectives, and the representation and measurement of membership functions. The second part covers fuzzy relations, including orderings, similarity, and relational equations. The third part, devoted to uncertainty modelling, introduces possibility theory, contrasting and relating it with probabilities, and reviews information measures of specificity and fuzziness. The last part concerns fuzzy sets on the real line - computation with fuzzy intervals, metric topology of fuzzy numbers, and the calculus of fuzzy-valued functions. Each chapter is written by one or more recognized specialists and offers a tutorial introduction to the topics, together with an extensive bibliography.
Author: Dimitrios George Konstantinides
Publisher: #N/A
ISBN: 9813223162
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 507
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Book Description
'Heavy-tailed risk modelling plays a central role in modern risk theory; within this perspective, the book provides an excellent guide concerning problems and solutions in risk theory.'zbMATHThis book is written to help graduate students and young researchers to enter quickly into the subject of Risk Theory. It can also be used by actuaries and financial practitioners for the optimization of their decisions and further by regulatory authorities for the stabilization of the insurance industry. The topic of extreme claims is especially presented as a crucial feature of the modern ruin probability.
Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119966973
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
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Book Description
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Author: Baoding Liu
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3540731652
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 263
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Book Description
This book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory. The purpose is to equip the readers with an axiomatic approach to deal with uncertainty. For this new edition the entire text has been totally rewritten. The chapters on chance theory and uncertainty theory are completely new. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students will find this work a stimulating and useful reference.
