Politics, Paradigms, and Intelligence Failures PDF Download
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Author: Ofira Seliktar
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317462440
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 297
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Book Description
Washington's failure to foresee the collapse of its superpower rival ranks high in the pantheon of predictive failures. The question of who got what right or wrong has been intertwined with the deeper issue of "who won" the Cold War. Like the disputes over "who lost" China and Iran, this debate has been fought out along ideological and partisan lines, with conservatives claiming credit for the Evil Empire's demise and liberals arguing that the causes were internal to the Soviet Union. The intelligence community has come in for harsh criticism for overestimating Soviet strength and overlooking the symptoms of crisis; the discipline of "Sovietology" has dissolved into acrimonious irrelevance. Drawing on declassified documents, interviews, and careful analysis of contemporaneous literature, this book offers the first systematic analysis of this predictive failure at the paradigmatic, foreign policy, and intelligence levels. Although it is focused on the Soviet case, it offers lessons that are both timely and necessary.
Author: Ofira Seliktar
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317462440
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 297
Get Book Here
Book Description
Washington's failure to foresee the collapse of its superpower rival ranks high in the pantheon of predictive failures. The question of who got what right or wrong has been intertwined with the deeper issue of "who won" the Cold War. Like the disputes over "who lost" China and Iran, this debate has been fought out along ideological and partisan lines, with conservatives claiming credit for the Evil Empire's demise and liberals arguing that the causes were internal to the Soviet Union. The intelligence community has come in for harsh criticism for overestimating Soviet strength and overlooking the symptoms of crisis; the discipline of "Sovietology" has dissolved into acrimonious irrelevance. Drawing on declassified documents, interviews, and careful analysis of contemporaneous literature, this book offers the first systematic analysis of this predictive failure at the paradigmatic, foreign policy, and intelligence levels. Although it is focused on the Soviet case, it offers lessons that are both timely and necessary.
Author: Babak Ganji
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN: 0857715755
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 329
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Book Description
Did the United States know more than it acknowledges about growing unrest under the Shah in mid-1970s Iran? Have historians of American-Iranian relations focused too narrowly on prevailing historical theory and personal recollection? In a period of escalating tension between the United States and Iran, what can the two nations' history of conflict tell us about their diplomatic future? Covering Carter's policy from the end of the Shah's reign to the revolution under Ayatollah Khomeini, Babak Ganji explores the nature of their perpetually antagonistic relations and the mistrust and misunderstanding that fuels it. Politics of Confrontation is a penetrating critique of international relations theory within the historical framework of US-Iranian relations, as well as a thorough examination of American policy towards Iran. It is the first in-depth look at documents seized by revolutionary students from the American Embassy during the infamous hostage crisis, and debunks the myth that US officials were unaware of the nature of opposition to the Shah or of Soviet influence on senior clerics. These findings are an essential addition to the discourse of foreign policy theorists and invaluable for historians of the US, Iran and the Cold War.
Author: O. Seliktar
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230610404
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 219
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Book Description
Coming at the heels of September 11, Operation Iraqi Freedom has focused the limelight on the way in which the United States predicts and manages political change. The failure to find WMD and more important, the continued violence in Iraq instead of the hoped for democracy, has engender an acrimonious debate on the motives of the Bush administration and its uses or misuses of intelligence. The question of who got what right or wrong has been fought out along ideological, and partisan lines, with supporters claiming that, given what was known about Saddam Hussein, the decision to change his regime was justified and detractors arguing that a group of largely Jewish neoconservatives, acting on behalf of Israel, manipulated intelligence in order to trick the United States into an unnecessary and costly war. The book provides a systematic and objective analysis of the problems that faced American intelligence in deciphering the behavior of the highly secretive and confusing Iraq regime and its enigmatic leader.
Author: Milo Jones
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 0804787158
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 389
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Book Description
Constructing Cassandra analyzes the intelligence failures at the CIA that resulted in four key strategic surprises experienced by the US: the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Iranian revolution of 1978, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks—surprises still play out today in U.S. policy. Although there has been no shortage of studies exploring how intelligence failures can happen, none of them have been able to provide a unified understanding of the phenomenon. To correct that omission, this book brings culture and identity to the foreground to present a unified model of strategic surprise; one that focuses on the internal make-up the CIA, and takes seriously those Cassandras who offered warnings, but were ignored. This systematic exploration of the sources of the CIA's intelligence failures points to ways to prevent future strategic surprises.
Author: Itai Shapira
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1040153259
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 257
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Book Description
The book offers a novel conceptualization of Israeli national intelligence culture, describing the way in which Israelis perceive and practice intelligence. Different nations have different national intelligence cultures, relying on different ideas of intelligence, perceiving and practicing intelligence in different ways. Written by a former senior intelligence officer, this book is the first study dedicated to Israeli intelligence culture and the way it reflects Israeli strategic culture. Relying on more than 30 elite interviews with acting and former Israeli practitioners, the book highlights the Israeli aversion to intelligence theory and scientific methods, as well as to the structured management of the intelligence system at the national level. It describes the intelligence system's emphasis on contrarian thinking and moral courage as the foundations of intelligence professionalism, and the growing inclination of Israeli intelligence toward action and influence. Intelligence is perceived and practiced by Israelis as a tool for problem-solving, addressing unique Israeli challenges. While some traits of the Israeli national intelligence culture have contributed to its high reputation and its ‘success story’, others might have also contributed to its failure in anticipating the Hamas terrorist attack on October 2023 or have remained aspirational norms rather than realized practice. The October 2023 failure, as that of the Yom Kippur War in 1973, will undoubtfully influence Israeli national intelligence culture for many years to come. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, Israeli politics, strategic studies, and international relations.
Author: Paul Maddrell
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
ISBN: 1626162409
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 311
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Book Description
Intelligence agencies spend huge sums of money to collect and analyze vast quantities of national security data for their political leaders. How well is this intelligence analyzed, how often is it acted on by policymakers, and does it have a positive or negative effect on decision making? Drawing on declassified documents, interviews with intelligence veterans and policymakers, and other sources, The Image of the Enemy breaks new ground as it examines how seven countries analyzed and used intelligence to shape their understanding of their main adversary. The cases in the book include the Soviet Union's analysis of the United States (and vice versa), East Germany's analysis of West Germany (and vice versa), British intelligence in the early years of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, Israeli intelligence about the Palestinians, Pakistani intelligence on India, and US intelligence about Islamist terrorists. These rivalries provide rich case studies for scholars and offer today’s analysts and policymakers the opportunity to closely evaluate past successes and failures in intelligence analysis and the best ways to give information support to policymakers. Using these lessons from the past, they can move forward to improve analysis of current adversaries and future threats.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Intelligence service
Languages : en
Pages : 618
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Book Description
Author: Tse-Kang Leng
Publisher: Lexington Books
ISBN: 0739192272
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 321
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Book Description
Discussion of the “Chinese Model” abounds with the rise of China. This volume analyzes the Chinese case in a theoretical framework, provides an evolutionary perspective, and compares it with other models of development. Instead of focusing on one specific case, the book's contributors shed light on the application of theories of international relations, comparative politics, and development studies to the topic under deliberation. This book reflects that the “uniqueness” of the Chinese model should also be put in an historical and evolutionary context. It also provides insights into comparisons with other models of development, such as the East Asian model and experiences of the former Soviet Union. The authors in the book argue that while globalization constrains state power, it may also open new windows of accommodation and adjustments. Linkages between the domestic dynamics of development and external forces of change become pertinent in understanding the Chinese models of development.
Author: Rakesh Pathak
Publisher: Hodder Education
ISBN: 1444156403
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 235
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Book Description
This series has taken the clarity, accessibility, reliability and in-depth analysis of our best-selling Access to History series and tailor-made it for the History IB Diploma. Each title in the series supports a specific topic in the IB History guide through thorough content coverage and examination guidance - helping students develop a good knowledge and understanding of the required content alongside the skills they need to do well. Communism in crisis 1976-89 has been written to fully support Prescribed subject 3 and includes: - authoritative, clear and engaging narrative which combines depth of content with accessibility of approach - a wide variety of sources and guidance on developing source skills - up-to-date historiography with clear analysis and associated TOK activities - guidance on answering exam-style questions with model answers and practice questions.
Author: Elena Chebankova
Publisher: McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
ISBN: 0228004373
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
In the realm of political discourse there is a distinct gap in understanding between Russia and the West. To an outsider, the ideas that animate the actions of Russia's ruling elite, opposition, and civil society - from the motivations driving Russia's political actors to the class structure and international and domestic constraints that shape Russia's political thinking - remain shrouded in mystery. Contrary to the view that a bleak discursive uniformity reigns in Vladimir Putin's Russia, Political Ideologies in Contemporary Russia shows that the country is engaging in serious theoretical debates across a wide spectrum of modern ideologies including liberalism, nationalism, feminism, and multiculturalism. Elena Chebankova argues that the nation is fragmented and the state seeks to balance the various ideological movements to ensure that none dominates. She shows that each of the main ideological trends is far from uniform, but the major opposition is between liberalism and traditionalism. The pluralistic picture she describes contests many current portrayals of Russia as an authoritarian or even totalitarian state. Offering an alternative to the Western lens through which to view global politics, Political Ideologies in Contemporary Russia is a major contribution to our understanding of this world power.
