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Author: Michael Clements
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521634809
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Author: Michael Clements
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521634809
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191529265
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 166
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Book Description
This book considers periodic time series models for seasonal data, characterized by parameters that differ across the seasons, and focuses on their usefulness for out-of-sample forecasting. Providing an up-to-date survey of the recent developments in periodic time series, the book presents a large number of empirical results. The first part of the book deals with model selection, diagnostic checking and forecasting of univariate periodic autoregressive models. Tests for periodic integration, are discussed, and an extensive discussion of the role of deterministic regressors in testing for periodic integration and in forecasting is provided. The second part discusses multivariate periodic autoregressive models. It provides an overview of periodic cointegration models, as these are the most relevant. This overview contains single-equation type tests and a full-system approach based on generalized method of moments. All methods are illustrated with extensive examples, and the book will be of interest to advanced graduate students and researchers in econometrics, as well as practitioners looking for an understanding of how to approach seasonal data.
Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030763595
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 219
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Book Description
Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. In this second edition, Terence Mills expands on the research in the area of trends and cycles over the last (almost) two decades, to highlight to students and researchers the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.
Author: G. Elliott
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444513957
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1071
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Book Description
Section headings in this handbook include: 'Forecasting Methodology; 'Forecasting Models'; 'Forecasting with Different Data Structures'; and 'Applications of Forecasting Methods.'.
Author: Aman Ullah
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780824701291
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 650
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Book Description
This work examines theoretical issues, as well as practical developments in statistical inference related to econometric models and analysis. This work offers discussions on such areas as the function of statistics in aggregation, income inequality, poverty, health, spatial econometrics, panel and survey data, bootstrapping and time series.
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 616
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Book Description
A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.
Author: Philip Hans Franses
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139952129
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 421
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Book Description
With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
Author:
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349588024
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 7493
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Book Description
The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.
Author: Halbert White
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780198296836
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 512
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Book Description
A collection of essays in honour of Clive Granger. The chapters are by some of the world's leading econometricians, all of whom have collaborated with and/or studied with both) Clive Granger. Central themes of Granger's work are reflected in the book with attention to tests for unit roots and cointegration, tests of misspecification, forecasting models and forecast evaluation, non-linear and non-parametric econometric techniques, and overall, a careful blend of practical empirical work and strong theory. The book shows the scope of Granger's research and the range of the profession that has been influenced by his work.
Author: John D. Levendis
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031373103
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 493
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Book Description
Revised and updated for the second edition, this textbook allows students to work through classic texts in economics and finance, using the original data and replicating their results. In this book, the author rejects the theorem-proof approach as much as possible, and emphasizes the practical application of econometrics. They show with examples how to calculate and interpret the numerical results. This book begins with students estimating simple univariate models, in a step by step fashion, using the popular Stata software system. Students then test for stationarity, while replicating the actual results from hugely influential papers such as those by Granger & Newbold, and Nelson & Plosser. Readers will learn about structural breaks by replicating papers by Perron, and Zivot & Andrews. They then turn to models of conditional volatility, replicating papers by Bollerslev. Students estimate multi-equation models such as vector autoregressions and vector error-correction mechanisms, replicating the results in influential papers by Sims and Granger. Finally, students estimate static and dynamic panel data models, replicating papers by Thompson, and Arellano & Bond. The book contains many worked-out examples, and many data-driven exercises. While intended primarily for graduate students and advanced undergraduates, practitioners will also find the book useful. “How to best start learning time series econometrics? Learning by doing. This is the ethos of this book. What makes this book useful is that it provides numerous worked out examples along with basic concepts. It is a fresh, no-nonsense, practical approach that students will love when they start learning time series econometrics. I recommend this book strongly as a study guide for students who look for hands-on learning experience." --Professor Sokbae "Simon" Lee, Columbia University, Co-Editor of Econometric Theory and Associate Editor of Econometrics Journal.
