Author: Robert J. Barro
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Debts, Public
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
A tax-smoothing objective is used to assess the optimal consumption of public debt with respect to maturity and contingencies. This objective motivates the government to make its debt payout contingent on the levels of public outlay and the tax base. If these contingencies are present, but asset prices of non-contingent indexed debt are stochastic, then full tax smoothing dictates an optimal maturity structure of the non-contingent debt. If the certainty-equivalent outlays are the same for each period then the government should guarantee equal real payouts in each period, that is, the debt takes the form of indexed consols. This structure insulates the government's budget constraint from unpredictable variations in the market prices of indexed bonds of various maturities. If contingent debt is precluded, then the government may want to depart from a consol maturity structure to exploit covariances among public outlay, the tax base, and the term structure of real interest rates. However, if moral hazard is the reason for the preclusion of contingent debt, then this consideration also deters exploitation of these covariances and tends to return the optimal solution to the consol maturity structure. The issue of nominal bonds may allow the government to exploit the covariances among public outlay, the tax base, and the rate of inflation. But if moral-hazard explains the absence of contingent debt, then the same reasoning tends to make nominal debt issue undesirable. The bottom line is that an optimal-tax approach to public debt favors bonds that are indexed and long term.
Author: Robert J. Barro
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Debts, Public
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Get Book Here
Book Description
Optimal debt management can be thought of in three stages. First, if taxes are lump sum and the other conditions for Ricardian equivalence hold, then the division of government financing between debt and taxes is irrelevant, and the whole level of public debt is indeterminate from an optimal-tax standpoint. Second, if taxes are distorting, then the timing of taxes will generally matter; for example, it may be desirable to smooth tax rates over time. This consideration makes determinate the levels of debt at various dates, but does not pin down the composition of the debt, say by maturity. Finally, if there is uncertainty about real interest rates, levels of public outlay, GDP, and so on, then the relation of tax rates to states of nature becomes important. In some cases, optimal taxation dictates the smoothing of tax rates over states of nature, and this element may pin down the composition of the debt. For example, the maturity structure can be designed to insulate the government's financing costs from shifts in real interest rates. This paper studies dynamic optimal taxation in an equilibrium model that yields a form of tax smoothing as a basis for debt management. The main analysis uses a tractable form of the one-sector stochastic growth model. The type of taxation that yields the clearest results on tax smoothing is a proportional levy on consumption. In a simple benchmark case, optimal debt management entails the issue of indexed consols. More generally, payouts on debt would also be contingent on aggregate consumption and the level of government spending.
Author: Mr.Guillermo Calvo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451942796
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Get Book Here
Book Description
Optimal management of the public debt is explored in a context where economic policy is continuously revised because, when the public debt is non—indexed, policy—makers are tempted to use inflation in order to reduce the real value of the public debt. The model’s implications are explored following two approaches. First, the effects of various exogenous disturbances are examined by means of numerical simulations. Secondly, the analysis explores—for Italy, Ireland, and the United States—if the model’s implications concerning the maturity structure of government debt are consistent with actual experience.
Author: Mr.Ilan Goldfajn
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451922809
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
Get Book Here
Book Description
The paper models the optimal debt management strategy of the public sector when issuing nominal, price-level-indexed and foreign-denominated debt securities. The model predicts that the variance of inflation, the size of the public debt, the variance of the real exchange rate, and the correlation of inflation with public expenditures are the main determinants of public debt management. Using this framework, the paper analyzes the Brazilian experience with indexed debt in the last decade. In particular, it explains the large increase of indexed public debt in Brazil prior to the 1994 Real plan and, thereafter, the steady decline in its use.
Author: Marcello De Cecco
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 248
Get Book Here
Book Description
This text combines a theoreitcal and empirical analysis of the advantages of issuing index-linked bonds, potential problems that may arise and how sovereign issuers should deal with them.
Author: Francesco Drudi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Debts, Public
Languages : en
Pages : 58
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Mr.Pablo Emilio Guidotti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451848846
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper examines the relationship between the degree of wage indexation chosen by private agents and the degree of indexation of the public debt. It is shown that the government is likely to respond to an increase in the degree of wage indexation by increasing the portion of the public debt that is indexed. By contrast, the effect of an increase in public debt indexation on the degree of wage indexation is ambiguous. In equilibrium, depending on the sources of shocks to the economy, the degree of wage indexation may be positively or negatively related to that of debt indexation. This relationship is analyzed both in situations where the policymakers are able to precommit policies and in those where precommitment is not possible.
Author: Alessandro Missale
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
The Stability and Growth Pact introduces deficit stabilization as a new interesting objective of debt management. The interest payments on public debt may serve as an important buffer against the budget consequences of cyclical downturns and unexpected deflation. The optimal debt composition depends on the correlations between interest rates, output and inflation. Estimated correlations for the period 1960-1988 and the implied debt compositions provide benchmarks for implications regarding the EMU. The paper explores how relevant correlations between output, inflation and interest rates may have changed with the shift in the monetary policy regime and thus how the debt composition, which stabilizes the dificit, has changed. A longer maturity structure of conventional debt is optimal if the ECB places a lower weight on output stabilization then the national monetary authorities and if EMU member states are hit by asymmetric shocks. Short term conventional debt should instead be issued by countries which experience a relatively higher output and inflation uncertainty and a lower sensitivity of aggregate demand to interest-rate changes. The optimal share of inflation indexed debt is largest in a strict inflation targeting regime; the lower the weight that the ECB assigns to output stabilization, the more attractive is inflation indexation for deficit stabilization.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149832892X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
Get Book Here
Book Description
NULL
Author: Giorgio Ferrari
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
