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Author: Luca Benati
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Luca Benati
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Luca Benati
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We estimate the welfare costs of inflation originating from lack of liquidity satiation - as in Bailey (1956), Friedman (1969), Lucas (2000), and Ireland (2009) - for the U.S., U.K., Canada, and three countries/economic areas (Switzerland, Sweden, and the Euro area) in which interest rates have recently plunged below zero. We pay special attention to (i) the fact that, as shown by recent experience, zero cannot be taken as the effective lower bound (ELB); (ii) the possibility that, as discussed by Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (2000), the money demand curve may become flatter at low interest rates; (iii) the functional form for money demand.; and (iv) what the most relevant proxy for the opportunity cost is. We report three main findings: (1) allowing for an empirically plausible ELB (e.g., -1%) materially increases the welfare costs compared to the standard benchmark of zero; (2) there is nearly no evidence that at low interest rates money demand curves may become flatter: rather, evidence for the U.S. (the country studied by Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (2000)) clearly points towards a steeper curve at low rates; and (3) welfare costs are, in general, non-negligible: this is especially the case for the Euro area, Switzerland, and Sweden, which, for any level of interest rates, demand larger amounts of M1 as a fraction of GDP. For policy purposes the implication is that, ceteris paribus, inflation targets for these countries should be set at a comparatively lower level.
Author: Robert E. Lucas (Jr)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Author: Stephen M. Miller
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Martin Feldstein
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Phillips curve
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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At a minimum, this paper should serve as a warning against too easy an acceptance of the view that the costs of sustained inflation are small relative to the costs of unemployment. If a temporary reduction in unemployment causes a permanent increase in inflation, the present value of the resulting future welfare costs may well exceed the temporary short-run gain. Previous analyses have underestimated the cost of a permanent increase in the inflation rate because they have ignored the growth of the economy and therefore the growth of the future instantaneous welfare costs. In the important case in which the growth of aggregate income exceeds the social discount rate, no reduction in unemployment can justify any permanent increase in the rate of inflation. Quite the contrary, if the inflation rate is above its optimal level, the economy should then be deflated to reduce the inflation rate regardless of the temporary consequences for unemployment.
Author: Smithin, John Nicholas
Publisher: Calgary : Department of Economics, University of Calgary
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Author:
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Category :
Languages : en
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Category :
Languages : en
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Author: Peter Nathan Ireland
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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"Post-1980 U.S. data trace out a stable long-run money demand relationship of Cagan's semi-log form between the M1-income ratio and the nominal interest rate, with an interest semi-elasticity below 2. Integrating under this money demand curve yields estimates of the welfare costs of modest departures from Friedman's zero nominal interest rate rule for the optimum quantity of money that are quite small. The results suggest that the Federal Reserve's current policy, which generates low but still positive rates of inflation, provides an adequate approximation in welfare terms to the alternative of moving all the way to the Friedman rule"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Author: Hans-Werner Sinn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Income distribution
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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