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Author: Herman Kahn
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351502204
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 335
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Book Description
In this widely discussed and influential book, Herman Kahn probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrates how the intensification of conflict can be depicted by means of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of which brings opponents closer to all-out war. At each rung of the ladder, before the climb proceeds, decisions must be made based on numerous choices. Some are clear and obvious, others obscure, but the options are always there. Thermonuclear annihilation, says Kahn, is unlikely to come through accident; but nations may elect to climb the ladder to extinction. The basic material for the book was developed in briefings delivered by Kahn to military and civilian experts and revised in the light of his findings of a trip to Vietnam in the 1960s. In On Escalation he states the facts squarely. He asks the reader to face unemotionally the terrors of a world fully capable of suicide and to consider carefully the alternatives to such a path. In the never-never land of nuclear warfare, where nuclear incredulity is pervasive and paralyzing to the imagination even for the professional analyst, salient details of possible scenarios for the outbreak of war, and even more for war fighting, are largely unexplored or even unnoticed. For scenarios in which war is terminated, the issues and possibilities of which are almost completely unstudied, the situation is even worse. Kahn's discussion throws light on the terrain and gives the individual a sense of the range of possibilities and complexities involved and are useful.
Author: Herman Kahn
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351502204
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 335
Get Book Here
Book Description
In this widely discussed and influential book, Herman Kahn probes the dynamics of escalation and demonstrates how the intensification of conflict can be depicted by means of a definite escalation ladder, ascent of which brings opponents closer to all-out war. At each rung of the ladder, before the climb proceeds, decisions must be made based on numerous choices. Some are clear and obvious, others obscure, but the options are always there. Thermonuclear annihilation, says Kahn, is unlikely to come through accident; but nations may elect to climb the ladder to extinction. The basic material for the book was developed in briefings delivered by Kahn to military and civilian experts and revised in the light of his findings of a trip to Vietnam in the 1960s. In On Escalation he states the facts squarely. He asks the reader to face unemotionally the terrors of a world fully capable of suicide and to consider carefully the alternatives to such a path. In the never-never land of nuclear warfare, where nuclear incredulity is pervasive and paralyzing to the imagination even for the professional analyst, salient details of possible scenarios for the outbreak of war, and even more for war fighting, are largely unexplored or even unnoticed. For scenarios in which war is terminated, the issues and possibilities of which are almost completely unstudied, the situation is even worse. Kahn's discussion throws light on the terrain and gives the individual a sense of the range of possibilities and complexities involved and are useful.
Author: Barry R. Posen
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 080146837X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 295
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Book Description
In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.
Author: Brian VanDeMark
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0195357191
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 285
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Book Description
In November of 1964, as Lyndon Johnson celebrated his landslide victory over Barry Goldwater, the government of South Vietnam lay in a shambles. Ambassador Maxwell Taylor described it as a country beset by "chronic factionalism, civilian-military suspicion and distrust, absence of national spirit and motivation, lack of cohesion in the social structure, lack of experience in the conduct of government." Virtually no one in the Johnson Administration believed that Saigon could defeat the communist insurgency--and yet by July of 1965, a mere nine months later, they would lock the United States on a path toward massive military intervention which would ultimately destroy Johnson's presidency and polarize the American people. Into the Quagmire presents a closely rendered, almost day-by-day account of America's deepening involvement in Vietnam during those crucial nine months. Mining a wealth of recently opened material at the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library and elsewhere, Brian VanDeMark vividly depicts the painful unfolding of a national tragedy. We meet an LBJ forever fearful of a conservative backlash, which he felt would doom his Great Society, an unsure and troubled leader grappling with the unwanted burden of Vietnam; George Ball, a maverick on Vietnam, whose carefully reasoned (and, in retrospect, strikingly prescient) stand against escalation was discounted by Rusk, McNamara, and Bundy; and Clark Clifford, whose last-minute effort at a pivotal meeting at Camp David failed to dissuade Johnson from doubling the number of ground troops in Vietnam. What comes across strongly throughout the book is the deep pessimism of all the major participants as things grew worse--neither LBJ, nor Bundy, nor McNamara, nor Rusk felt confident that things would improve in South Vietnam, that there was any reasonable chance for victory, or that the South had the will or the ability to prevail against the North. And yet deeper into the quagmire they went. Whether describing a tense confrontation between George Ball and Dean Acheson ("You goddamned old bastards," Ball said to Acheson, "you remind me of nothing so much as a bunch of buzzards sitting on a fence and letting the young men die") or corrupt politicians in Saigon, VanDeMark provides readers with the full flavor of national policy in the making. More important, he sheds greater light on why America became entangled in the morass of Vietnam.
Author: Douglas E. Noll
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1501176250
Category : Family & Relationships
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
Written by award-winning author, highly experienced mediator, and co-founder of the Prison of Peace project, Douglas E. Noll, De-Escalate gives you the proven process to calm any angry person or volatile situation in 90 seconds or less. Based on the practical experience of a master mediator and grounded in the latest findings in neuroscience, Douglas Noll offers his proven process—to empower you to successfully and efficiently de-escalate an angry person or volatile situation in 90 seconds or less—and how to apply this skill in all areas of life. We live in a more socially polarized time nationally and globally than ever before, as arguments easily flare up, aggression and bullying rises, and lines are drawn over politics, religion, and ideology. De-Escalate provides a new set of social listening and communication skills that solve the problem of what to do with angry, emotional people. The quick and effective techniques detailed in De-Escalate will help anyone dealing with this increase in anger from outside sources or anger in themselves. With simple, easy-to-understand steps, De-Escalate walks you through real-life examples and scenario-based conversations in order to create resolutions, build emotional intelligence, and cultivate empathy and healing. This book will teach the precise tools to master becoming a peacemaker, cultivating ways to co-exist and co-respect others in an increasingly hostile world.
Author: Erica D. Lonergan
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0197550886
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 273
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Book Description
To what extent do cyberspace operations increase the risks of escalation between nation-state rivals? Scholars and practitioners have been concerned about cyber escalation for decades, but the question remains hotly debated. The issue is increasingly important for international politics as more states develop and employ offensive cyber capabilities, and as the international system is increasingly characterized by emergent multipolarity. In Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace, Erica D. Lonergan and Shawn W. Lonergan tackle this question head-on, presenting a comprehensive theory that explains the conditions under which cyber operations may lead to escalation. In doing so, they challenge long-held assumptions about strategic interactions in cyberspace, arguing that cyberspace is not as dangerous as the conventional wisdom might suggest. In some cases, cyber operations could even facilitate the de-escalation of international crises. To support their claims, Lonergan and Lonergan test their theory against a range of in-depth case studies, including strategic interactions between the United States and key rivals; a series of case studies of the role of cyber operations in international crises; and plausible future scenarios involving cyber operations during conflict. They then apply their analytical insights to policymaking, making the case that skepticism is warranted about the overall efficacy of employing cyber power for strategic ends. By exploring the role of cyber operations in routine competition, crises, and warfighting, Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace presents nuanced insights about how cyberspace affects international politics.
Author: Brendan King
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author, Subject Matter Expert, and CEO, Brendan King shares his most profound lessons from working with the most violent and aggressive persons in mental health, criminal justice, law enforcement, and military combat overseas. The reader learns just how important establishing a grasp on the fundamental laws of de-escalation are prior to gaining real competency with often taught de-escalation techniques. Now with his second book, and over 15 years teaching all over the globe, leading one of the most highly regarded Crisis Prevention and Intervention training companies in the industry, anyone seeking to enhance their ability to resolve conflict and crisis situations must read this book. A great companion to this book, and fantastic opportunity to get certified in Crisis Prevention and Intervention Training can be found at: www.CrisisConsultantGroup.com
Author: Björn Röber
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319691023
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
This unique book on international business presents a critical review of the role of bounded rationality in internationalization process (IP) research. Corporate internationalization processes have been a subject of scientific debate for several decades. However, it is questionable whether behavioral research insights are sufficiently acknowledged in this academic discipline. Against this backdrop, the author critically assesses the behavioral assumptions of the Uppsala Model, which is commonly considered to be the pivotal approach in internationalization process research.
Author: Bryan Frederick
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 1977411665
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 110
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Book Description
This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine, including possible escalation to Russian nuclear use, to better inform U.S. and allied decisions and the public debate.
Author: Jacquelyn Davis
Publisher: Naval Institute Press
ISBN: 1682475425
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 207
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Book Description
Coalition Management and Escalation Control in a Multinuclear World examines the impact of new technologies on twenty-first-century crisis management and armed conflict, as well as the unprecedented number and types of actors involved in current and potential flash-points. The book's basic thesis is that new technologies are changing how wars are fought and providing a broadening range of escalation options. Cyber weapons and artificial intelligence, as well as social media, blur traditional escalation thresholds with important consequences for deterrence. Nuclear weapons possessors, especially nations and powers new to their use, may have differing strategies concerning how, when, why, or where such weapons should be used either for purposes of deterrence or as actual warfighting instruments. Today's global map differs drastically from all previous eras, not only in the types and numbers of actors but also in the level of lethality, as well as the range and accuracy of weapons available with which to threaten or actually conduct battle. A world of Great Power competition, together with non-state armed groups contains risks for miscalculation including the possibility of catalytic warfare.
Author: I. William Zartman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521856645
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 360
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Book Description
This volume examines the point where the concepts and practices of escalation and negotiation meet.
