North-South Financial Integration and Business Cycles PDF Download
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Author: Michael A. Kouparitsas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Michael A. Kouparitsas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Willi Semmler
Publisher: M.E. Sharpe
ISBN: 9780765635174
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 288
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Book Description
Providing an analysis of the Tibet question, this work explores essential themes and issues concerning modern Tibet. It considers such topics as representations and sovereignty, economic development and political conditions, the exile movement and human rights, historical legacies and international politics, identity issues and the local society.
Author: Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
We analyze the effect of financial integration on the degree of business cycle synchronization, using a confidential dataset on banks' international bilateral exposure over the past three decades in a panel of twenty developed countries. Financial integration is associated with less synchronized output cycles, in line with the standard theories of output fluctuations. We employ two distinct instrumental variable specifications to identify the one-way effect of integration on synchronization. These specifications reveal that the component of banking integration predicted by legislative-regulatory harmonization policies and the nature of the bilateral exchange rate regime has a negative effect on output synchronization. Our results contrast with those of the cross-sectional studies that show an increase in the degree of business cycles synchronization as a result of financial integration. We reconcile the different results by showing that the cross-sectional estimates suffer from omitted-variable bias.
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451870019
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.
Author: Tianxiao Zheng
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Robert J. Barro
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199780773
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
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Book Description
Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia brings together authoritative essays that identify and examine various initiatives to promote economic integration in Asia.
Author: Mr.Romain A Duval
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475523599
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Author: Michael A. Kouparitsas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
Author: Çigdem Akin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
This paper examines the changing nature of growth spillovers between developed economies, the North, and developing countries, the South, driven by the process of globalization?the phenomenon of rising international trade and financial flows. We use a comprehensive database of macroeconomic and sectoral variables for 106 countries over the period 1960- 2005. We consider the South to be composed of two groups of countries, the Emerging South and the Developing South, based on the extent of their integration into the global economy. Using a panel regression framework, we find that the impact of the Northern economic activity on the Emerging South has declined during the globalization period (1986-2005). In contrast, the growth linkages between the North and Developing South have been rather stable over time. Our findings also suggest that the Northern and Emerging Southern economies have started to exhibit more intensive intra-group growth spillovers.
