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Author: Pranjul Bhandari
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic stabilization
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
The revival of interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. We consider the case for NGDP targeting for mid-sized developing countries, in light of their susceptibility to supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. For India, in particular, one major exogenous supply shock is the monsoon rains. NGDP targeting splits the impact of supply shocks automatically between inflation and real GDP growth. In the case of annual inflation targeting (IT), by contrast, the full impact of an adverse supply shock or terms of trade shock is felt as a loss in real GDP alone. NGDP targeting automatically accommodates supply shocks as most central banks with discretion would do anyway, while retaining the advantage of anchoring expectations as rules are designed to do. We outline a simple theoretical model and derive the condition under which an NGDP targeting regime would dominate other regimes such as annual IT for achieving objectives of output and price stability. We go on to estimate for the case of India the parameters needed to ascertain whether the condition holds, particularly the slope of the aggregate supply curve. Estimates suggest that the condition may indeed hold.
Author: Pranjul Bhandari
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic stabilization
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
The revival of interest in nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting has come in the context of large advanced economies. We consider the case for NGDP targeting for mid-sized developing countries, in light of their susceptibility to supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. For India, in particular, one major exogenous supply shock is the monsoon rains. NGDP targeting splits the impact of supply shocks automatically between inflation and real GDP growth. In the case of annual inflation targeting (IT), by contrast, the full impact of an adverse supply shock or terms of trade shock is felt as a loss in real GDP alone. NGDP targeting automatically accommodates supply shocks as most central banks with discretion would do anyway, while retaining the advantage of anchoring expectations as rules are designed to do. We outline a simple theoretical model and derive the condition under which an NGDP targeting regime would dominate other regimes such as annual IT for achieving objectives of output and price stability. We go on to estimate for the case of India the parameters needed to ascertain whether the condition holds, particularly the slope of the aggregate supply curve. Estimates suggest that the condition may indeed hold.
Author: Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145185515X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Inflation targeting (IT) serves as monetary policy framework in several advanced economies, where it has enhanced policy transparency and accountability. The paper considers its wider applicability to developing countries. The prerequisites for a successful IT framework are identified as an ability to carry out an independent monetary policy (free of fiscal dominance or commitment to another nominal anchor, like the exchange rate) and a quantitative framework linking policy instruments to inflation. These prerequisites are largely absent among developing countries, though several of them could with some further institutional changes and an overriding commitment to low inflation make use of an IT framework.
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
Author: Moon Oulatta
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780355913453
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 143
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Book Description
This dissertation investigates the prospect of adopting a flexible exchange rate regime with the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) as the intermediate target for the conduct of monetary policy for the members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). In the first chapter, we begin by assessing the choice of exchange rate regime based on three criteria: exchange rate volatility, exposure to real shocks, and institutional capacities. The current peg with the euro remains the de facto political choice for the WAEMU, but also a reliable option for ensuring monetary policy discipline and allaying risks of currency convertibility. However, we argue that exchange rate flexibility is increasingly becoming more viable due to the overall improvement in the central bank's operational and statistical capacities, the high degree of exposure to terms of trade shocks, and the recent change in the WAEMU's trade patterns away from Europe. Therefore, given the case for exchange rate flexibility, we examine the pros and cons of three types of flexible exchange rate regime: inflation targeting, monetary aggregate targeting, and nominal GDP targeting. The main conclusion is that while all three types of flexible exchange rate regime would provide a firm commitment to a nominal anchor, monetary aggregate targeting would be the most practical option to pursue, because monetary aggregate data are highly observable, prone to almost no revisions, and price stability would be guaranteed by preventing excessive money growth. Alternatively, given the poor growth performance realized in the last decade and increasing vulnerability to supply shocks (for example, falling commodity prices and drastic droughts), we argue that under the right circumstances (for example, when the economy is operating far below potential output), choosing a flexible exchange rate regime that allows monetary authorities to prioritize both employment and price stability such as nominal GDP targeting would be most desirable as compared to adopting a flexible exchange rate regime in which the intermediate target of monetary policy is to keep a monetary aggregate or the inflation rate on target. A commitment to stabilize nominal GDP would force the monetary authorities to prioritize employment in the short run without giving up on achieving price stability in the long run. In the second chapter, we examine the stabilizing properties of using nominal GDP as the intermediate target as compared to using the inflation rate, a monetary aggregate, or the exchange rate. We provide a contribution to Bhandari and Frankel's (2015) model by imposing a cost for data uncertainty into the central bank quadratic loss functions, especially under inflation targeting and nominal GDP targeting. First, we show that no precommitment to a nominal anchor leads to a suboptimal outcome. Then, we derive the optimal conditions to determine whether a precommitment to a nominal GDP target would minimize the variability of real output, inflation, and the nominal exchange rate more efficiently than a precommitment to an inflation target, a monetary aggregate target, or an exchange rate target. We draw three main conclusions from the result of the simulations. First, the exchange rate is the least optimal among the choices of nominal anchors considered for the WAEMU. Second, nominal GDP targeting minimizes the central bank's quadratic loss function in an open economy setting given some parameter values for nominal GDP data uncertainty. Third, monetary aggregate targeting is slightly more robust than inflation targeting and exchange rate targeting. In conclusion, the main policy recommendation is that the central bank should prioritize nominal GDP among the choices of nominal anchors. However, in the event of large nominal GDP data revisions or poor data quality, then the secondary option should be to commit to a monetary aggregate target. In the third chapter, we devise a strategy for implementing nominal GDP targeting for the WAEMU by taking into consideration the existing practical concerns of data revisions and the unavailability of quarterly estimates of aggregate nominal GDP. Given the macroeconomic structure of the WAEMU and the magnitude of the estimated shocks affecting the economy, we demonstrate that a monetary aggregate instrument is superior to an interest rate instrument for the WAEMU. Hence, we propose a money-based rule similar to McCallum's (1987) rule, where the central bank is to announce an annual target for nominal GDP growth and use the monetary base as the operational target. Given the discovery of a robust empirical link between aggregate nominal GDP and aggregate nominal trade (value of exports plus imports) and the availability of trade data on a high frequency with minor revisions, we propose to rely on quarterly estimates of nominal trade as a means to solve the existing data issues coming from large revisions and low frequency data. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).
Author: Mr.Marco Airaudo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475523165
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
Author: Hippolyte W. Balima
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484324153
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
Inflation targeting (IT) has gained much traction over the past two decades, becoming a framework of reference for the conduct of monetary policy. However, the debate about its very merits and macroeconomic consequences remains inconclusive. This paper digs deeper into the issue through a meta-regression analysis (MRA) of the existing literature, making it the first application of a MRA to the macroeconomic effects of IT adoption. Building on 8,059 estimated coefficients from a very broad sample of 113 studies, the paper finds that the empirical literature suffers from two types of publication bias. First, authors, editors and reviewers prefer results featuring beneficial effects of IT adoption on inflation volatility, real GDP growth and fiscal performances; second, they promote results with estimated coefficients that are significantly different from zero. However, after filtering out the publication biases, we still find meaningful (genuine) effects of IT in reducing inflation and real GDP growth volatility, but no significant genuine effects on inflation volatility and the level of real GDP growth. Interestingly, the results indicate that the impact of IT varies systematically across studies, depending on the sample structure and composition, the time coverage, the estimation techniques, country-specific factors, IT implementation parameters, and publication characteristics.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498344062
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Author: Gerald A. Epstein
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1849801983
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 333
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Book Description
Inflation targeting (IT) has become the sacred cow of central banking. But its suitability to developing nations remains contested. The contributors to this volume perform the valuable service of sketching out plausible, more development-friendly alternatives. They are to be commended in particular for avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach and paying close attention to the needs of specific countries. Their proposals range from relatively minor tinkering in IT to comprehensive overhaul. A common theme is the central role of the real exchange rate, which the central banks ignore at their economies peril. Dani Rodrik, Harvard University, US As the world economy is devastated by a virulent financial crisis and jobs are lost in scores, central bankers are increasingly questioned as to why they have failed to sustain stability and growth even though they told us all along that conquering inflation would be necessary and sufficient to do so while hoping to get a pat on the back for achieving a degree of price stability unprecedented in recent times. This book provides a lot of food for thought on why. It is a powerful critique of the orthodox obsession with inflation in neglect of the two deepseated problems of the unbridled market economy financial instability and unemployment. It is a must for all policy makers, notably in the developing world, and for the mainstream. Yilmaz Akyuz, formerly of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva, Switzerland This collective volume makes a compelling case for balancing the developmental and stabilization functions of central banks. In particular, the authors emphasize that, as practiced in many successful developing countries, competitive real exchange rates can be good for growth and employment generation, and should thus be a specific focus of central bank actions. The book is a must read for those looking for a more balanced framework for central bank policies. José Antonio Ocampo, Columbia University, US and former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations for Economic and Social Affairs and Finance Minister of Colombia This book, written by an international team of economists, develops concrete, country specific alternatives to inflation targeting, the dominant policy framework of central bank policy that focuses on keeping inflation in the low single digits to the virtual exclusion of other key goals such as employment creation, poverty reduction and sustainable development. The book includes thematic chapters, including analyses of class attitudes toward inflation and unemployment and the gender impacts of restrictive monetary policy. Other chapters propose improved monetary frameworks for Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam. Policy frameworks that are explored include employment targeting, and targeting a stable and competitive real exchange rate. The authors also show that to reach a larger number of targets, including higher employment and stable inflation, central banks must use a larger number of instruments, including capital management techniques. This volume offers concrete, socially valuable alternatives that economists, policy makers, students and interested laypeople should consider before adopting one size fits all, often inadequate, policies that have become a virtual policy making fad.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498343694
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.
Author: Pierre-Richard Agénor
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781597821711
Category : Inflation targeting
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
