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Author: Ms. Corinne C Delechat
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
As relatively small open economies, South-East Asian emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand or ASEAN-4) are highly susceptible to external shocks—both financial and real—that could induce large capital flows and exchange rate volatility that could lead to foreign exchange market dysfunction. With the exception of Bank Negara Malaysia, ASEAN-4 central banks mostly have flexible inflation-targeting frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their main policy objectives include medium-term price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability. Central Banks in ASEAN-4 economies have been early pilots in the operationalization of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in 2022-23, given their experience in using multiple policy tools besides the monetary policy rate, including macroprudential measures, foreign exchange intervention (FXI), and capital flow management measures, to achieve their multiple objectives. They have welcomed the IPF as a systematic, frictions-based approach to analyze the use of these multiple tools to manage trade-offs across policy objectives. This paper takes stock of the experience from these pilots, both from the perspective of country authorities and of IMF country teams. It aims at distilling key lessons, which could be used to inform broader IPF operationalization. The IPF conceptual framework and a related quantitative model were used to assess policy trade-offs in ASEAN-4 in the event of adverse external shocks. These applications reaffirmed the importance of using monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures stemming from real shocks and allowing the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. However, a complementary use of FXI could improve trade-offs between price, financial, and output stability when economies are faced with large and financial shocks that result in abrupt spikes in uncovered interest rate parity premia resulting in inefficiently tight financial conditions that could hurt growth or risking to de-anchor inflation expectations. The IPF pilots also highlighted some challenges faced when operationalizing IPF principles, notably regarding the assessment of frictions and shocks that might justify the use of FXI. In particular, country teams at times lacked sufficient information to adequately assess the extent of frictions. Moreover, the time-varying nature of IPF frictions and the non-linear effects of shocks make it difficult to assess situations when benefits of a complementary use of FXI would overweigh its costs.
Author: Ms. Corinne C Delechat
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Get Book Here
Book Description
As relatively small open economies, South-East Asian emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand or ASEAN-4) are highly susceptible to external shocks—both financial and real—that could induce large capital flows and exchange rate volatility that could lead to foreign exchange market dysfunction. With the exception of Bank Negara Malaysia, ASEAN-4 central banks mostly have flexible inflation-targeting frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their main policy objectives include medium-term price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability. Central Banks in ASEAN-4 economies have been early pilots in the operationalization of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in 2022-23, given their experience in using multiple policy tools besides the monetary policy rate, including macroprudential measures, foreign exchange intervention (FXI), and capital flow management measures, to achieve their multiple objectives. They have welcomed the IPF as a systematic, frictions-based approach to analyze the use of these multiple tools to manage trade-offs across policy objectives. This paper takes stock of the experience from these pilots, both from the perspective of country authorities and of IMF country teams. It aims at distilling key lessons, which could be used to inform broader IPF operationalization. The IPF conceptual framework and a related quantitative model were used to assess policy trade-offs in ASEAN-4 in the event of adverse external shocks. These applications reaffirmed the importance of using monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures stemming from real shocks and allowing the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. However, a complementary use of FXI could improve trade-offs between price, financial, and output stability when economies are faced with large and financial shocks that result in abrupt spikes in uncovered interest rate parity premia resulting in inefficiently tight financial conditions that could hurt growth or risking to de-anchor inflation expectations. The IPF pilots also highlighted some challenges faced when operationalizing IPF principles, notably regarding the assessment of frictions and shocks that might justify the use of FXI. In particular, country teams at times lacked sufficient information to adequately assess the extent of frictions. Moreover, the time-varying nature of IPF frictions and the non-linear effects of shocks make it difficult to assess situations when benefits of a complementary use of FXI would overweigh its costs.
Author: Ms.Ana Corbacho
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513558900
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 311
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Book Description
The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.
Author: Mr.Serhat Solmaz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513571834
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
Author: Allan Dizioli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475524269
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Author: Carol Wise
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 0815724772
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
This volume documents and explains the remarkable resilience of emerging market nations in East Asia and Latin America when faced with the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. Their quick bounceback from the crisis marked a radical departure from the past, such as when the 1982 debt shocks produced a decade-long recession in Latin America or when the Asian financial crisis dramatically slowed those economies in the late 1990s. Why? This volume suggests that these countries' resistance to the initial financial contagion is a tribute to financial-sector reforms undertaken over the past two decades. The rebound itself was a trade-led phenomenon, favoring the countries that had gone the farthest with macroeconomic restructuring and trade reform. Old labels used to describe "neoliberal versus developmentalist" strategies do not accurately capture the foundations of this recovery. These authors argue that policy learning and institutional reforms adopted in response to previous crises prompted policymakers to combine state and market approaches in effectively coping with the global financial crisis. The nations studied include Korea, China, India, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil, accompanied by Latin American and Asian regional analyses that bring other emerging markets such as Chile and Peru into the picture. The substantial differences among the nations make their shared success even more remarkable and worthy of investigation. And although 2012 saw slowed growth in some emerging market nations, the authors argue this selective slowing suggests the need for deeper structural reforms in some countries, China and India in particular.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 420
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Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475561008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author: Bambang Susantono
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
ISBN: 9292623567
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 324
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Book Description
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has unleashed unparalleled challenges. At the same time, it offers a window to rethink Asia’s most fundamental development policies and strategies to address inequality, socioeconomic vulnerability, and environmental challenges. This publication gathers blogs and short policy pieces contributed by ADB staff and experts in an attempt to tackle immediate challenges and prepare for what may lie beyond the horizon. It covers a broad range of development challenges and highlights the crucial role of rapid adoption of digital technologies, adequate supply of quality infrastructure, disaster risk management, and strengthening regional cooperation for a resilient and sustainable future by shaping post-pandemic conditions.
Author: Chiara Fratto
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513567217
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 71
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Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis induced an unprecedented launch of unconventional monetary policy through asset purchase programs (APPs) by emerging market and developing economies. This paper presents a new dataset of APP announcements and implementation from March until August 2020 for 27 emerging markets and 8 small advanced economies. APPs’ effects on bond yields, exchange rates, equities, and debt spreads are estimated using different methodologies. The results confirm that APPs were successful in significantly reducing bond yields in EMDEs, and these effects were stronger than those of policy rate cuts, suggesting that such UMP could be important tools for EMDEs during financial market stress.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616352477
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 94
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Book Description
The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
