NAVENVPREDRSCHFAC Contractor Report CR PDF Download
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Numerical weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 356
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Numerical weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 416
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Numerical weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 466
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Astronautics
Languages : en
Pages : 286
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Author: W. M. Gray
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cyclone forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Book Description
Up-to-date results of recent tropical cyclone research at Colorado State University are presented. Particular attention is paid to new findings which impact on tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting efforts. Observational studies using large amounts of composited rawinsonde, satellite, and aircraft flight data have been performed to analyze global aspects of tropical cyclone occurrences, physical processes of tropical cyclone genesis, tropical cyclone intensity change, environmental factors influencing tropical cyclone turning motion 24-36 hours before the turn takes place, tropical cyclone intensity determination from upper tropospheric reconnaissance, and the diurnal variations of vertical motion in tropical weather systems. (Author).
Author: Jerry D. Jarrell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cyclone forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 82
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Book Description
The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).
Author: Jerry D. Jarrell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cyclone forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The format of input and a description of routine and special products are provided. (Author).
Author: Jerry D. Jarrell
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cyclone forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
The Atlantic Hurricane Wind Probability (WINDPA) program is documented. WINDPA provides the probability of selected Navy and Air Force bases either being struck by an Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone or receiving winds of at least 30 or 50 kt. The basis for WINDPA estimates is discussed in comparison to a similar western Pacific program (WINDP). WINDPA estimates were subjected to independent reliability testing, the results of which are discussed.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Meteorology
Languages : en
Pages : 252
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Author: United States. National Weather Service
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 662
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Author: Peter S. Parke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Satellite meteorology
Languages : en
Pages : 676
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