Author: Alexander Philipov
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
Financial models for asset and derivatives pricing, risk management, portfolio optimization, and asset allocation rely on volatility forecasts. Time-varying volatility models, such as GARCH and Stochastic Volatility (SVOL), have been successful in improving forecasts over constant volatility models. We develop a new multivariate SVOL framework for modeling financial data that assumes covariance matrices stochastically varying through a Wishart process. In our formulation, scalar variances naturally extend to covariance matrices rather than vectors of variances as in traditional SVOL models. Model fitting is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation from the posterior distribution. Due to the complexity of the model, an efficiently designed Gibbs sampler is described that produces inferences with a manageable amount of computation. Our approach is illustrated on a multivariate time series of monthly industry portfolio returns. In a test of the economic value of our model, minimum-variance portfolios based on our SVOL covariance forecasts outperform out-of-sample portfolios based on alternative covariance models such as Dynamic Conditional Correlations and factor-based covariances.
Author: Wolfgang Rinnergschwentner
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Author: Yu-Cheng Ku
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 87
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Author: Roberto Casarin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This work deals with multivariate stochastic volatility models, which account for a time-varying variance-covariance structure of the observable variables. We focus on a special class of models recently proposed in the literature and assume that the covariance matrix is a latent variable which follows an autoregressive Wishart process. We review two alternative stochastic representations of the Wishart process and propose Markov-Switching Wishart processes to capture different regimes in the volatility level. We apply a full Bayesian inference approach, which relies upon Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for matrix-valued distributions and allows us to sequentially estimate both the parameters and the latent variables.
Author: Torben Gustav Andersen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540712976
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1045
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Book Description
The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.
Author: Ivan Jeliazkov
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118771125
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 266
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Book Description
Presents new models, methods, and techniques and considers important real-world applications in political science, sociology, economics, marketing, and finance Emphasizing interdisciplinary coverage, Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences builds upon the recent growth in Bayesian methodology and examines an array of topics in model formulation, estimation, and applications. The book presents recent and trending developments in a diverse, yet closely integrated, set of research topics within the social sciences and facilitates the transmission of new ideas and methodology across disciplines while maintaining manageability, coherence, and a clear focus. Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences features innovative methodology and novel applications in addition to new theoretical developments and modeling approaches, including the formulation and analysis of models with partial observability, sample selection, and incomplete data. Additional areas of inquiry include a Bayesian derivation of empirical likelihood and method of moment estimators, and the analysis of treatment effect models with endogeneity. The book emphasizes practical implementation, reviews and extends estimation algorithms, and examines innovative applications in a multitude of fields. Time series techniques and algorithms are discussed for stochastic volatility, dynamic factor, and time-varying parameter models. Additional features include: Real-world applications and case studies that highlight asset pricing under fat-tailed distributions, price indifference modeling and market segmentation, analysis of dynamic networks, ethnic minorities and civil war, school choice effects, and business cycles and macroeconomic performance State-of-the-art computational tools and Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with related materials available via the book’s supplemental website Interdisciplinary coverage from well-known international scholars and practitioners Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences is an ideal reference for researchers in economics, political science, sociology, and business as well as an excellent resource for academic, government, and regulation agencies. The book is also useful for graduate-level courses in applied econometrics, statistics, mathematical modeling and simulation, numerical methods, computational analysis, and the social sciences.
Author: Peter Fuleky
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030311503
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 716
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Book Description
This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.
Author: Bastian Gribisch
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Several multivariate stochastic models in continuous time are introduced and their probabilistic and statistical properties are studied in detail. All models are driven by Lévy processes and can generally be used to model multidimensional time series of observations. In this thesis the focus is on various stochastic volatility models for financial data. Firstly, multidimensional continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) processes are considered and, based upon them, a multivariate continuous-time exponential GARCH model (ECOGARCH). Thereafter, positive semi-definite Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes are introduced and the behaviour of the square root (and similar transformations) of stochastic processes of finite variation, which take values in the positive semi-definite matrices and can be represented as the sum of an integral with respect to time and another integral with respect to an extended Poisson random measure, is analysed in general. The positive semi-definite Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes form the basis for the definition of a multivariate extension of the popular stochastic volatility model of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard. After a detailed theoretical study this model is estimated for some observed stock price series. As a further model with stochastic volatility multivariate continuous time GARCH (COGARCH) processes are introduced and their probabilistic and statistical properties are analysed.
Author: Neil Shephard
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191531421
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 536
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Book Description
Stochastic volatility is the main concept used in the fields of financial economics and mathematical finance to deal with time-varying volatility in financial markets. This book brings together some of the main papers that have influenced the field of the econometrics of stochastic volatility, and shows that the development of this subject has been highly multidisciplinary, with results drawn from financial economics, probability theory, and econometrics, blending to produce methods and models that have aided our understanding of the realistic pricing of options, efficient asset allocation, and accurate risk assessment. A lengthy introduction by the editor connects the papers with the literature.
