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Author: Laurent E. Calvet
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0080559964
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273
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Book Description
Calvet and Fisher present a powerful, new technique for volatility forecasting that draws on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics and provides a unified treatment of the use of multifractal techniques in finance. A large existing literature (e.g., Engle, 1982; Rossi, 1995) models volatility as an average of past shocks, possibly with a noise component. This approach often has difficulty capturing sharp discontinuities and large changes in financial volatility. Their research has shown the advantages of modelling volatility as subject to abrupt regime changes of heterogeneous durations. Using the intuition that some economic phenomena are long-lasting while others are more transient, they permit regimes to have varying degrees of persistence. By drawing on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics, they show how to construct high-dimensional regime-switching models that are easy to estimate, and substantially outperform some of the best traditional forecasting models such as GARCH. The goal of Multifractal Volatility is to popularize the approach by presenting these exciting new developments to a wider audience. They emphasize both theoretical and empirical applications, beginning with a style that is easily accessible and intuitive in early chapters, and extending to the most rigorous continuous-time and equilibrium pricing formulations in final chapters. - Presents a powerful new technique for forecasting volatility - Leads the reader intuitively from existing volatility techniques to the frontier of research in this field by top scholars at major universities - The first comprehensive book on multifractal techniques in finance, a cutting-edge field of research
Author: Laurent E. Calvet
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0080559964
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273
Get Book Here
Book Description
Calvet and Fisher present a powerful, new technique for volatility forecasting that draws on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics and provides a unified treatment of the use of multifractal techniques in finance. A large existing literature (e.g., Engle, 1982; Rossi, 1995) models volatility as an average of past shocks, possibly with a noise component. This approach often has difficulty capturing sharp discontinuities and large changes in financial volatility. Their research has shown the advantages of modelling volatility as subject to abrupt regime changes of heterogeneous durations. Using the intuition that some economic phenomena are long-lasting while others are more transient, they permit regimes to have varying degrees of persistence. By drawing on insights from the use of multifractals in the natural sciences and mathematics, they show how to construct high-dimensional regime-switching models that are easy to estimate, and substantially outperform some of the best traditional forecasting models such as GARCH. The goal of Multifractal Volatility is to popularize the approach by presenting these exciting new developments to a wider audience. They emphasize both theoretical and empirical applications, beginning with a style that is easily accessible and intuitive in early chapters, and extending to the most rigorous continuous-time and equilibrium pricing formulations in final chapters. - Presents a powerful new technique for forecasting volatility - Leads the reader intuitively from existing volatility techniques to the frontier of research in this field by top scholars at major universities - The first comprehensive book on multifractal techniques in finance, a cutting-edge field of research
Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199844372
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 785
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Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.
Author: David Carfi
Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.
ISBN: 0821891480
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 384
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Book Description
This volume contains the proceedings from three conferences: the PISRS 2011 International Conference on Analysis, Fractal Geometry, Dynamical Systems and Economics, held November 8-12, 2011 in Messina, Italy; the AMS Special Session on Fractal Geometry in Pure and Applied Mathematics, in memory of Benoît Mandelbrot, held January 4-7, 2012, in Boston, MA; and the AMS Special Session on Geometry and Analysis on Fractal Spaces, held March 3-4, 2012, in Honolulu, HI. Articles in this volume cover fractal geometry and various aspects of dynamical systems in applied mathematics and the applications to other sciences. Also included are articles discussing a variety of connections between these subjects and various areas of physics, engineering, computer science, technology, economics and finance, as well as of mathematics (including probability theory in relation with statistical physics and heat kernel estimates, geometric measure theory, partial differential equations in relation with condensed matter physics, global analysis on non-smooth spaces, the theory of billiards, harmonic analysis and spectral geometry). The companion volume (Contemporary Mathematics, Volume 600) focuses on the more mathematical aspects of fractal geometry and dynamical systems.
Author: Laurent E. Calvet
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
We propose a discrete-time stochastic volatility model in which regime switching serves three purposes. First, changes in regimes capture low frequency variations, which is their traditional role. Second, they specify intermediate frequency dynamics that are usually assigned to smooth autoregressive processes. Finally, high frequency switches generate substantial outliers. Thus, a single mechanism captures three important features of the data that are typically addressed as distinct phenomena in the literature. Maximum likelihood estimation is developed and shown to perform well in finite sample. We estimate on exchange rate data a version of the process with four parameters and more than a thousand states. The estimated model compares favorably to earlier specifications both in- and out-of-sample. Multifractal forecasts slightly improve on GARCH(1,1) at daily and weekly intervals, and provide considerable gains in accuracy at horizons of 10 to 50 days.
Author: Steven Durlauf
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230280838
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 417
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Book Description
Specially selected from The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition, each article within this compendium covers the fundamental themes within the discipline and is written by a leading practitioner in the field. A handy reference tool.
Author: Walter Zucchini
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1482253844
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 399
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Book Description
Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R, Second Edition illustrates the great flexibility of hidden Markov models (HMMs) as general-purpose models for time series data. The book provides a broad understanding of the models and their uses. After presenting the basic model formulation, the book covers estimation, forecasting, decoding, prediction, model selection, and Bayesian inference for HMMs. Through examples and applications, the authors describe how to extend and generalize the basic model so that it can be applied in a rich variety of situations. The book demonstrates how HMMs can be applied to a wide range of types of time series: continuous-valued, circular, multivariate, binary, bounded and unbounded counts, and categorical observations. It also discusses how to employ the freely available computing environment R to carry out the computations. Features Presents an accessible overview of HMMs Explores a variety of applications in ecology, finance, epidemiology, climatology, and sociology Includes numerous theoretical and programming exercises Provides most of the analysed data sets online New to the second edition A total of five chapters on extensions, including HMMs for longitudinal data, hidden semi-Markov models and models with continuous-valued state process New case studies on animal movement, rainfall occurrence and capture-recapture data
Author: Ali Sanayei
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642454380
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 384
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Book Description
The book you hold in your hands is the outcome of the "ISCS 2013: Interdisciplinary Symposium on Complex Systems" held at the historical capital of Bohemia as a continuation of our series of symposia in the science of complex systems. Prague, one of the most beautiful European cities, has its own beautiful genius loci. Here, a great number of important discoveries were made and many important scientists spent fruitful and creative years to leave unforgettable traces. The perhaps most significant period was the time of Rudolf II who was a great supporter of the art and the science and attracted a great number of prominent minds to Prague. This trend would continue. Tycho Brahe, Niels Henrik Abel, Johannes Kepler, Bernard Bolzano, August Cauchy Christian Doppler, Ernst Mach, Albert Einstein and many others followed developing fundamental mathematical and physical theories or expanding them. Thus in the beginning of the 17th century, Kepler formulated here the first two of his three laws of planetary motion on the basis of Tycho Brahe’s observations. In the 19th century, nowhere differentiable continuous functions (of a fractal character) were constructed here by Bolzano along with a treatise on infinite sets, titled “Paradoxes of Infinity” (1851). Weierstrass would later publish a similar function in 1872. In 1842, Doppler as a professor of mathematics at the Technical University of Prague here first lectured about a physical effect to bear his name later. And the epoch-making physicist Albert Einstein – while being a chaired professor of theoretical physics at the German University of Prague – arrived at the decisive steps of his later finished theory of general relativity during the years 1911–1912. In Prague, also many famous philosophers and writers accomplished their works; for instance, playwright arel ape coined the word "robot" in Prague (“robot” comes from the Czech word “robota” which means “forced labor”).
Author: Anil K. Bera
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319099469
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 282
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Book Description
In the era of Big Data our society is given the unique opportunity to understand the inner dynamics and behavior of complex socio-economic systems. Advances in the availability of very large databases, in capabilities for massive data mining, as well as progress in complex systems theory, multi-agent simulation and computational social science open the possibility of modeling phenomena never before successfully achieved. This contributed volume from the Perm Winter School address the problems of the mechanisms and statistics of the socio-economics system evolution with a focus on financial markets powered by the high-frequency data analysis.
Author: David Bourghelle
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031244869
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
In recent decades, the financial markets have experienced various crises, shocks and disruptive events, driving high levels of volatility. This volatility is too strong to be fully justified simply by changes in fundamentals. This volume discusses these highly relevant issues with special focus on asset pricing and behavioral finance. Financial price assets of the 2020s appear to be driven by various attractors in addition to fundamentals, and there is no doubt that investor emotions, market sentiment, the news, and external factors such as uncertainty all play a key role. This has been clearly observed in recent years, especially during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has changed the common perception of the way financial markets work.
Author: Armin Bunde
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540413240
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 468
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Book Description
This book tackles these questions by applying advanced methods from statistical physics and related fields to all types of non-linear dynamics prone to disaster. It gives readers an insight into the problems of catastrophes and is one of the first books on the theories of disaster. Based on physical and mathematical theories, the general principles of disaster appearance are explained.
