Momentum and Overreaction in Experimental Asset Markets PDF Download
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Author: Gunduz Caginalp
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Price volatility and investor overreactions are commonplace in experimental asset markets. Understanding the price dynamics in these markets is crucial for designing successful new trading institutions. We report on a series of experiments to test the predictions of a new momentum model using a dynamical systems approach. This model is then pitted against several standard models to predict prices, as well as against expert human forecasters. The comparative results suggest that each model has its advantages and regions of best performance. Overall, the best predictive methods are the momentum model and expert human forecasters.
Author: Gunduz Caginalp
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
Price volatility and investor overreactions are commonplace in experimental asset markets. Understanding the price dynamics in these markets is crucial for designing successful new trading institutions. We report on a series of experiments to test the predictions of a new momentum model using a dynamical systems approach. This model is then pitted against several standard models to predict prices, as well as against expert human forecasters. The comparative results suggest that each model has its advantages and regions of best performance. Overall, the best predictive methods are the momentum model and expert human forecasters.
Author: Stefan Palan
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642021476
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 179
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Book Description
This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.
Author: Harrison Hong
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : es
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Harrison G. Hong
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Arbitrage
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts towards a central tendency which in turn, is changing stochastically over time. As a result, current short-term rates are not" sufficient to predict future short-term rates movements, as would be the case if the central" tendency was constant. However, since longer-maturity bond prices incorporate information" about the central tendency, longer-maturity bond yields can be used to predict future short-term" rate movements. We develop a two-factor model of the term-structure which implies that a" linear combination of any two rates can be used as a proxy for the central tendency. Based on" this central-tendency proxy, we estimate a model of the one-month rate which performs better" than models which assume the central tendency to be constant
Author: Stephen Satchell
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119599326
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 448
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Book Description
A one-of-a-kind reference guide covering the behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum and the implementation of momentum trading strategies Market Momentum: Theory and Practice is a thorough, how-to reference guide for a full range of financial professionals and students. It examines the behavioral and statistical causes of market momentum while also exploring the practical side of implementing related strategies. The phenomenon of momentum in finance occurs when past high returns are followed by subsequent high returns, and past low returns are followed by subsequent low returns. Market Momentum provides a detailed introduction to the financial topic, while examining existing literature. Recent academic and practitioner research is included, offering a more up-to-date perspective. What type of book is Market Momentum and how does it serve a range of readers’ interests and needs? A holistic market momentum guide for industry professionals, asset managers, risk managers, firm managers, plus hedge fund and commodity trading advisors Advanced text to help graduate students in finance, economics, and mathematics further develop their funds management skills Useful resource for financial practitioners who want to implement momentum trading strategies Reference book providing behavioral and statistical explanations for market momentum Due to claims that the phenomenon of momentum goes against the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, behavioral economists have studied the topic in-depth. However, many books published on the subject are written to provide advice on how to make money. In contrast, Market Momentum offers a comprehensive approach to the topic, which makes it a valuable resource for both investment professionals and higher-level finance students. The contributors address momentum theory and practice, while also offering trading strategies that practitioners can study.
Author: Charles Noussair
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118790685
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 374
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Book Description
Comprised of 10 surveys by leading scholars, this collection showcases the largest and fastest growing strands of research on market behaviour in experimental economics. Covers topics such as asset markets, contests, environmental policy, frictions, general equilibrium, labour markets, multi-unit auctions, oligopoly markets, and prediction markets Focuses on the literature that has helped economists best understand how markets operate Assesses the impact of developments in theory, policy, and research methods
Author: Harrison G. Hong
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
We assume that the instantaneous riskless rate reverts towards a central tendency which in turn, is changing stochastically over time. As a result, current short-term rates are notquot; sufficient to predict future short-term rates movements, as would be the case if the centralquot; tendency was constant. However, since longer-maturity bond prices incorporate informationquot; about the central tendency, longer-maturity bond yields can be used to predict future short-termquot; rate movements. We develop a two-factor model of the term-structure which implies that aquot; linear combination of any two rates can be used as a proxy for the central tendency. Based onquot; this central-tendency proxy, we estimate a model of the one-month rate which performs betterquot; than models which assume the central tendency to be constant.
Author: Daniel Friedman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Capital market
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
Author: Anita Kopányi-Peuker
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Shyam Sunder
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Efficient market theory
Languages : en
Pages : 81
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Book Description
