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Author: George Wright
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608
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Book Description
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
Author: George Wright
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608
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Book Description
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
Author: Richard Jeffrey
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521536684
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Book Description
Sample Text
Author: Jim Albert
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351030132
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 553
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Book Description
Probability and Bayesian Modeling is an introduction to probability and Bayesian thinking for undergraduate students with a calculus background. The first part of the book provides a broad view of probability including foundations, conditional probability, discrete and continuous distributions, and joint distributions. Statistical inference is presented completely from a Bayesian perspective. The text introduces inference and prediction for a single proportion and a single mean from Normal sampling. After fundamentals of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced, Bayesian inference is described for hierarchical and regression models including logistic regression. The book presents several case studies motivated by some historical Bayesian studies and the authors’ research. This text reflects modern Bayesian statistical practice. Simulation is introduced in all the probability chapters and extensively used in the Bayesian material to simulate from the posterior and predictive distributions. One chapter describes the basic tenets of Metropolis and Gibbs sampling algorithms; however several chapters introduce the fundamentals of Bayesian inference for conjugate priors to deepen understanding. Strategies for constructing prior distributions are described in situations when one has substantial prior information and for cases where one has weak prior knowledge. One chapter introduces hierarchical Bayesian modeling as a practical way of combining data from different groups. There is an extensive discussion of Bayesian regression models including the construction of informative priors, inference about functions of the parameters of interest, prediction, and model selection. The text uses JAGS (Just Another Gibbs Sampler) as a general-purpose computational method for simulating from posterior distributions for a variety of Bayesian models. An R package ProbBayes is available containing all of the book datasets and special functions for illustrating concepts from the book. A complete solutions manual is available for instructors who adopt the book in the Additional Resources section.
Author: Fabio Spizzichino
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420036130
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 269
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Book Description
Bayesian methods in reliability cannot be fully utilized and understood without full comprehension of the essential differences that exist between frequentist probability and subjective probability. Switching from the frequentist to the subjective approach requires that some fundamental concepts be rethought and suitably redefined. Subjecti
Author: S. James Press
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470317949
Category : Mathematics
Languages : de
Pages : 591
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Book Description
Ein Wiley-Klassiker über Bayes-Statistik, jetzt in durchgesehener und erweiterter Neuauflage! - Werk spiegelt die stürmische Entwicklung dieses Gebietes innerhalb der letzten Jahre wider - vollständige Darstellung der theoretischen Grundlagen - jetzt ergänzt durch unzählige Anwendungsbeispiele - die wichtigsten modernen Methoden (u. a. hierarchische Modellierung, linear-dynamische Modellierung, Metaanalyse, MCMC-Simulationen) - einzigartige Diskussion der Finetti-Transformierten und anderer Themen, über die man ansonsten nur spärliche Informationen findet - Lösungen zu den Übungsaufgaben sind enthalten
Author: Steven G. Vick
Publisher: ASCE Publications
ISBN: 0784470863
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 469
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Book Description
Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts
Author: Roger B. Myerson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262355604
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 569
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Book Description
An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.
Author: Mark Machina
Publisher: Newnes
ISBN: 0444536868
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 897
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Book Description
The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. - Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance - Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings - Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author: Henry Ely Kyburg
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 278
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Book Description
Truth and probability; Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources; The bases of probability; Subjective probability as the measure of a non-measurable set; The elicitation of personal probabilities; Probability: beware of falsifications; Probable knowledge.
Author: Kumaraswamy Vela Velupillai
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134385463
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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Book Description
Herbert Simon (1916-2001) is mostly celebrated for the theory of bounded rationality and satisficing. This book of essays on Models of Simon tackles these topics that the he broached in a professional career spanning more than 60 years. Expository material on the fundamental concepts he introduced are re-interpreted in terms of the theory of computability. This volume frames the behavioural issues of concern for economists, such as: hierarchy, causality, near-diagonal linear dynamical systems, discovery, the contrasts between the notion of heuristics, and the Church-Turing Thesis of Computability Theory. There is, consistently, an emphasis on the historical origins of the concepts Simon worked with, in emphasising Human Problem Solving and Decision Making – by rational individuals and institutions (like Organizations). The main feature of the results in the book are its emphasis on the procedural aspects of human problem solving, decision making and the remarkable way Simon harnessed many tools of mathematical logic, mathematics, cognitive sciences, economics and econometrics. This long-awaited volume is an important read for those who study economic theory and philosophy, microeconomics and political economy, as well as those interested in the great Herbert Simon’s work.
