Model Dynamics and Risk Premia in the Short Term Market for Crude Oil PDF Download
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Author: Karl Larsson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper investigates model dynamics and risk premia in the short term market for crude oil futures. Stochastic volatility models, with and without jumps, are estimated using data on both futures and option prices. As an economic application we apply the estimated models to the pricing of crude oil variance swaps and an evaluation of the associated variance risk premium. The empirical results point to a positive return risk premium attached to diffusive stochastic volatility while there is not strong evidence of jump risk being priced in the market. Negative volatility and variance risk premia stand out as a robust and significant feature of the data. Jumps play a minor role for representing data and the jump risk component in both variance swaps and variance risk premia is small. Finally, a non-affine model that allows for level dependent volatility of volatility is found to have the best fit to data.
Author: Karl Larsson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper investigates model dynamics and risk premia in the short term market for crude oil futures. Stochastic volatility models, with and without jumps, are estimated using data on both futures and option prices. As an economic application we apply the estimated models to the pricing of crude oil variance swaps and an evaluation of the associated variance risk premium. The empirical results point to a positive return risk premium attached to diffusive stochastic volatility while there is not strong evidence of jump risk being priced in the market. Negative volatility and variance risk premia stand out as a robust and significant feature of the data. Jumps play a minor role for representing data and the jump risk component in both variance swaps and variance risk premia is small. Finally, a non-affine model that allows for level dependent volatility of volatility is found to have the best fit to data.
Author: Georges Prat
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Using survey-based monthly data over thirty years, we show that oil price expectations for 3- and 12-month horizons are not rational implying that the ex-ante oil risk premium is a more relevant concept for decision making than the widely popular ex-post premium. Using a portfolio choice model framework, we derive each risk premium as a product of the price of risk and the expected volatility of oil return, these two components being time varying and horizon-dependent. A state-space model of risk premiums, where the risk prices are represented as stochastic unobservable components and where expected variances are proxied as weighted averages of past instantaneous variances, is estimated using Kalman filtering. We find that our model adequately represents the ex-ante oil risk premiums dynamics, from which the representative investor appears to be mostly risk seeking at short horizons and mostly risk averse at longer horizons. A state-dependent interpretation of our risk premium patterns shows consistency with the predictions of the prospect theory. We also show that our risk prices are correlated with a number of economic and oil market-related factors, and find that an upward sloped term structure of oil risk premiums prevails in average over the period.
Author: Leonardo Iania
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We study the effect of oil price shocks on bond risk premia. Based on Baumeister and Hamilton (2019), we identify the different sources of oil price shocks using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global market for crude oil. These structural factors are then used as unspanned factors in an affine term structure model based on the representation of Joslin et al. (2014). This is done for a total of 15 countries. Bond risk premia of net oil-exporting countries show a reaction to the structural shocks which is often statistically significant and in line with the expectation. For oil-importing developed countries, mainly the reaction to economic activity shocks is statistically significant and with the expected sign. The results for oil-importing developing countries are most of the time not statistically significant or run counter what one would expect. Among the unspanned factors, global economic activity explains most of the variability in bond risk premia. Finally, a historical decomposition around the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis shows a variety of patterns in the evolution of bond risk premia.
Author: James Douglas Hamilton
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the form of positive expected returns from their positions. We show that this interaction can produce an affine factor structure to commodity futures prices, and develop new algorithms for estimation of such models using unbalanced data sets in which the duration of observed contracts changes with each observation. We document significant changes in oil futures risk premia since 2005, with the compensation to the long position smaller on average in more recent data. This observation is consistent with the claim that index-fund investing has become more important relative to commerical hedging in determining the structure of crude oil futures risk premia over time.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333486
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Author: Craig Pirrong
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139501976
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238
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Book Description
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Author: Hilary Till
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781904339632
Category : Commodity exchanges
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This is the only multi-contributor book on commodity investment offering a breadth of opinions for sophisticated investors. It looks at commodity investment from the following perspectives: the investor, the active manager, the commodity index provider, the risk manager, and the researcher. In response to the rapid growth in the market, this timely publication will bring you up to speed on the trends and challenges of commodity investment, providing you with a practical investment framework. It is a recommended reading for hedge fund managers, pension fund consultants, mutual fund portfolio managers, endowment chief investment officers, futures traders, family office investors, commodity trading advisers, brokers, dealers and MBA students researching this important subject.
Author: M. A. H. Dempster
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000784045
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 864
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Book Description
Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development. Commodities: Fundamental Theory of Futures, Forwards, and Derivatives Pricing, Second Edition covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets, as well as the interaction between commodity prices, the real economy, and other financial markets. After a thoroughly updated and extensive theoretical and practical introduction, this new edition of the book is divided into five parts – the fifth of which is entirely new material covering cutting-edge developments. Oil Products considers the structural changes in the demand and supply for hedging services that are increasingly determining the price of oil Other Commodities examines markets related to agricultural commodities, including natural gas, wine, soybeans, corn, gold, silver, copper, and other metals Commodity Prices and Financial Markets investigates the contemporary aspects of the financialization of commodities, including stocks, bonds, futures, currency markets, index products, and exchange traded funds Electricity Markets supplies an overview of the current and future modelling of electricity markets Contemporary Topics discuss rough volatility, order book trading, cryptocurrencies, text mining for price dynamics and flash crashes
Author: Helyette Geman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470687738
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 479
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Book Description
The last few years have been a watershed for the commodities, cash and derivatives industry. New regulations and products have led to an explosion in the commodities markets, creating a new asset for investors that includes hedge funds as well as University endowments, and has resulted in a spectacular growth in spot and derivative trading. This book covers hard and soft commodities (energy, agriculture and metals) and analyses: Economic and geopolitical issues in commodities markets Commodity price and volume risk Stochastic modelling of commodity spot prices and forward curves Real options valuation and hedging of physical assets in the energy industry It is required reading for energy companies and utilities practitioners, commodity cash and derivatives traders in investment banks, the Agrifood business, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and Hedge Funds. In Commodities and Commodity Derivatives, Hélyette Geman shows her powerful command of the subject by combining a rigorous development of its mathematical modelling with a compact institutional presentation of the arcane characteristics of commodities that makes the complex analysis of commodities derivative securities accessible to both the academic and practitioner who wants a deep foundation and a breadth of different market applications. It is destined to be a "must have" on the subject.” —Robert Merton, Professor, Harvard Business School "A marvelously comprehensive book of interest to academics and practitioners alike, by one of the world's foremost experts in the field." —Oldrich Vasicek, founder, KMV
Author: Svetlozar T. Rachev
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0817681809
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 438
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Book Description
The subject of numerical methods in finance has recently emerged as a new discipline at the intersection of probability theory, finance, and numerical analysis. The methods employed bridge the gap between financial theory and computational practice, and provide solutions for complex problems that are difficult to solve by traditional analytical methods. Although numerical methods in finance have been studied intensively in recent years, many theoretical and practical financial aspects have yet to be explored. This volume presents current research and survey articles focusing on various numerical methods in finance. The book is designed for the academic community and will also serve professional investors.
