Measuring the Risk-Return Tradeoff with Time-Varying Conditional Covariances PDF Download
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Author: Esben Hedegaard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Analysis of covariance
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
We examine the prediction of Merton's intertemporal CAPM that time varying risk premiums arise from the conditional covariances of returns on assets with the return on the market and other state variables. We find a positive and significant price of risk for the covariance with the market return that is driven by the time series variation in the conditional covariances, and the risk-premium on the market remains positive and significant after controlling for additional state variables. Our method estimates the risk-return tradeoff in the ICAPM using multiple portfolios as test assets.
Author: Esben Hedegaard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Analysis of covariance
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
We examine the prediction of Merton's intertemporal CAPM that time varying risk premiums arise from the conditional covariances of returns on assets with the return on the market and other state variables. We find a positive and significant price of risk for the covariance with the market return that is driven by the time series variation in the conditional covariances, and the risk-premium on the market remains positive and significant after controlling for additional state variables. Our method estimates the risk-return tradeoff in the ICAPM using multiple portfolios as test assets.
Author: Esben Hedegaard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Analysis of covariance
Languages : en
Pages : 57
Get Book Here
Book Description
We examine the prediction of Merton's intertemporal CAPM that time varying risk premiums arise from the conditional covariances of returns on assets with the return on the market and other state variables. We find a positive and significant price of risk for the covariance with the market return that is driven by the time series variation in the conditional covariances, and the risk-premium on the market remains positive and significant after controlling for additional state variables. Our method estimates the risk-return tradeoff in the ICAPM using multiple portfolios as test assets.
Author: Martin Lettau
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Rate of return
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
Author: Alberto Gianluca Paolo Rossi
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781124703749
Category : Asset allocation
Languages : en
Pages : 155
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Book Description
This dissertation presents three stand-alone contributions to the fields of theoretical and empirical asset pricing. The first chapter presents a theoretical model in which the attention investors pay to the stock market varies over time. This feature is obtained by introducing information costs into a continuous-time model of asset allocation with time-varying investment opportunities. My model explains why investors do not trade uniformly through time. It also rationalizes why agents do not modify their portfolio allocations gradually with the arrival of new information, but rather alternate extended periods of inertia (no-trade) with brief moments of action where asset allocations are updated according to the current state of the economy. The second chapter analyzes the role of information in the context of financial market predictions. I employ a novel semi-parametric method known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to forecast stock returns and volatility at the monthly frequency. The framework allows me to generate forecasts on the basis of a large set of predictor variables without incurring over-fitting related problems. My results indicate that expanding the conditioning information set results in greater out-of-sample predictive accuracy compared to the standard models proposed in the literature and that the forecasts generate profitable portfolio allocations even when market frictions are considered. The third chapter (co-authored with Allan Timmermann) analyzes the limitations of parametric models in evaluating the relation between risk and return. By taking advantage of the flexible and semi-parametric nature of Boosted Regression Trees, we find evidence of a nonmonotonic relation between conditional volatility and expected stock market returns. At low and medium levels of conditional volatility there is a positive risk-return trade-off, but this relation is inverted at high levels of volatility. This finding helps explain the absence of a consensus in the empirical literature on the sign of the risk-return trade-off. We propose a new measure of risk based on the conditional covariance between observations of a broad economic activity index and stock market returns. Using this broader covariance-based risk measure, we find clear evidence of a positive and monotonic risk-returns trade-off.
Author: Robert A. Jarrow
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Derivative securities
Languages : en
Pages : 472
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Book Description
Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.
Author: H. Kent Baker
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199754659
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 701
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Book Description
Understanding the current state of affairs and tools available in the study of international finance is increasingly important as few areas in finance can be divorced completely from international issues. International Finance reflects the new diversity of interest in international finance by bringing together a set of chapters that summarizes and synthesizes developments to date in the many and varied areas that are now viewed as having international content. The book attempts to differentiate between what is known, what is believed, and what is still being debated about international finance. The survey nature of this book involves tradeoffs that inevitably had to be made in the process given the vast footprint that constitutes international finance. No single book can cover everything. This book, however, tries to maintain a balance between the micro and macro aspects of international finance. Although each chapter is self-contained, the chapters form a logical whole that follows a logical sequence. The book is organized into five broad categories of interest: (1) exchange rates and risk management, (2) international financial markets and institutions, (3) international investing, (4) international financial management, and (5) special topics. The chapters cover market integration, financial crisis, and the links between financial markets and development in some detail as they relate to these areas. In each instance, the contributors to this book discuss developments in the field to date and explain the importance of each area to finance as a field of study. Consequently, the strategic focus of the book is both broad and narrow, depending on the reader's needs. The entire book provides a broad picture of the current state of international finance, but a reader with more focused interests will find individual chapters illuminating on specific topics.
Author: Alberto Giovannini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business enterprises
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Recent empirical work indicates that, in a variety of financial markets, both conditional expectations and conditional variances of returns are time- varying. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether these joint fluctuations of conditional first and second moments are consistent with the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin capital-asset-pricing model. We test the mean-variance model under several different assumptions about the time-variation of conditional second moments of returns, using weekly data from July 1974 to December 1986, that include returns on a portfolio composed of dollar, Deutsche mark, Sterling, and Swiss franc assets, together with the US stock market. The model is estimated constraining risk premia to depend on the time-varying conditional covariance matrix of the residuals of the expected returns equations. The results indicate that estimated conditional variances cannot explain the observed time-variation of risk premia. Furthermore, the constraints imposed by the static CAPH are always rejected.
Author: Alberto G. P. Rossi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
Using a flexible econometric approach that avoids imposing restrictive modeling assumptions, we find evidence of a non-monotonic relation between conditional volatility and expected stock market returns: At low-to-medium levels of conditional volatility there is a positive trade-off between risk and expected returns, but this relationship gets inverted at high levels of volatility as observed during the recent financial crisis. We propose a new measure of risk based on the conditional covariance between daily observations of a broad economic activity index and stock returns. Using this covariance measure, we find clear evidence of a monotonically increasing risk-return trade-off. Our finding of a non-monotonic mean-volatility relation helps explain the absence of a consensus in the empirical literature on the sign of the risk-return trade-off. At the same time, our finding that the expected return is a monotonically rising function of the conditional covariance measure also suggests that a positive risk-return relation can be established once a better measure of risk is used.
Author: Zijun Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We re-examine the risk-return trade off in U.S. equity market by allowing for time variation in the tradeoff and estimating the conditional variance by the new mixed data sampling method. The main finding is that the risk-return tradeoff is strongly time-varying with the state of the market and the average of the time-varying tradeoff is 1.43. The lagged market return is found to be the best indicator of market states. The empirical finding holds true for a battery of robustness checks during the post-Compustat sample period. The evidence from the international markets is similar to the U.S. one.
Author: Hui Guo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
Using a semiparametric estimation technique, we show that the risk-return tradeoff and the Sharpe ratio of the stock market increases monotonically with the consumption wealth ratio (CAY) across time. While early studies have commonly interpreted such a finding as evidence of the countercyclical variation in aggregate relative risk aversion (RRA), we argue that it mainly reflects changes in investment opportunities for two reasons. First, we fail to reject the null hypothesis of constant RRA after controlling for CAY as a proxy for the hedge against changes in the investment opportunity set. Second, by contrast with habit formation models but consistent with ICAPM, we find that loadings on the conditional stock market variance scaled by CAY are negatively priced in the cross-sectional regressions. For illustration, we replicate the countercyclical stock market risk-return tradeoff using simulated data from Guo's (2004) limited stock market participation model, in which RRA is constant and CAY is a proxy for shareholders' liquidity conditions.
