Mathematical Forecasting at Times of Crisis PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Mathematical Forecasting at Times of Crisis PDF full book. Access full book title Mathematical Forecasting at Times of Crisis by J. R. Basiurski. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: J. R. Basiurski
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: J. R. Basiurski
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Arnaud Clément-Grandcourt
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0081007779
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 166
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book presents a crisis scenario generator with black swans, black butterflies and worst case scenarios. It is the most useful scenario generator that can be used to manage assets in a crisis-prone period, offering more reliable values for Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and Tail Value at Risk (TVaR). Hazardous Forecasts and Crisis Scenario Generator questions how to manage assets when crisis probability increases, enabling you to adopt a process for using generators in order to be well prepared for handling crises. Evaluates risk-oriented philosophy, forecast risk-oriented philosophy and its processes Features scenario-building processes, with an emphasis on main and extreme scenarios Discusses asset management processes using a generator methodology to avoid risk understatement and increase optimization.
Author: Theo S. Eicher
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484346815
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
Get Book Here
Book Description
Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF’s Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias, efficiency, and information content to find that IMF forecasts add substantial informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of nominal GDP, public investment, private investment, the current account, net transfers, and government expenditures) exhibit significant forecast bias. Forecasts for low-income countries are the main drivers of forecast bias and inefficiency, reflecting perhaps larger shocks and lower data quality. When we decompose the forecast errors into their sources, we find that forecast errors for private consumption growth are the key contributor to GDP growth forecast errors. Similarly, forecast errors for non-interest expenditure growth and tax revenue growth are crucial determinants of the forecast errors in the growth of fiscal budgets. Forecast errors for balance of payments growth are significantly influenced by forecast errors in goods import growth. The results highlight which macroeconomic aggregates require further attention in future forecast models for countries in crises.
Author: V. Kumar Murty
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030850536
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 349
Get Book Here
Book Description
Curated by the Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences from their COVID-19 Math Modelling Seminars, this first in a series of volumes on the mathematics of public health allows readers to access the dominant ideas and techniques being used in this area, while indicating problems for further research. This work brings together experts in mathematical modelling from across Canada and the world, presenting the latest modelling methods as they relate to the COVID-19 pandemic. A primary aim of this book is to make the content accessible so that researchers share the core methods that may be applied elsewhere. The mathematical theories and technologies in this book can be used to support decision makers on critical issues such as projecting outbreak trajectories, evaluating public health interventions for infection prevention and control, developing optimal strategies to return to a new normal, and designing vaccine candidates and informing mass immunization program. Topical coverage includes: basic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) modelling framework modified and applied to COVID-19 disease transmission dynamics; nearcasting and forecasting for needs of critical medical resources including personal protective equipment (PPE); predicting COVID-19 mortality; evaluating effectiveness of convalescent plasma treatment and the logistic implementation challenges; estimating impact of delays in contact tracing; quantifying heterogeneity in contact mixing and its evaluation with social distancing; modelling point of care diagnostics of COVID-19; and understanding non-reporting and underestimation. Further, readers will have the opportunity to learn about current modelling methodologies and technologies for emerging infectious disease outbreaks, pandemic mitigation rapid response, and the mathematics behind them. The volume will help the general audience and experts to better understand the important role that mathematics has been playing during this on-going crisis in supporting critical decision-making by governments and public health agencies.
Author: Michel Godet
Publisher: Pergamon
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 160
Get Book Here
Book Description
Chapter 7: Air transport scenarios for the Paris region up to 1990.
Author: Anton Panda
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030653285
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 110
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book presents a methodology for forecasting events and phenomena occurring in technology and natural environments. The methodology is based on forecasting the individual state of the control object, which is carried out based on the analysis of the trend behavior of the controlled parameter (symptom of the disease). The methodology helps determining the time of the onset of a destructive earthquake, its strength and the coordinates of the epicentre, predicting the time of the descent of glaciers and landslides long before the event. In medicine, the methodology predicts the severity of a disease and forecast of its aggravation.
Author: Jon Danielsson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119977118
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 307
Get Book Here
Book Description
Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Author: Nita H. Shah
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9813362642
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 366
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book describes various mathematical models that can be used to better understand the spread of novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and help to fight against various challenges that have been developed due to COVID-19. The book presents a statistical analysis of the data related to the COVID-19 outbreak, especially the infection speed, death and fatality rates in major countries and some states of India like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi. Each chapter with distinctive mathematical model also has numerical results to support the efficacy of these models. Each model described in this book provides its unique prediction policy to reduce the spread of COVID-19. This book is beneficial for practitioners, educators, researchers and policymakers handling the crisis of COVID-19 pandemic.
Author: Gerald W. Hopple
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429716834
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 223
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book identifies the central problems of crisis research, assesses the progress of work in the area, and discusses prospects for the future. It addresses Soviet, Chinese, and U.S. crisis management patterns, computer-based early warning systems, terrorism, and the Rapid Deployment Force.
Author: Steve Morlidge
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470662212
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 328
Get Book Here
Book Description
The recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken. For that reason, forecasting business performance tops the list of concerns for CFO's across the globe. It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. ’Good enough’ forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future. Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as: What makes a good forecast? What period should a forecast cover? How frequently should it be updated? What information should it contain? What is the best way to produce a forecast? How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation? How should a forecast be used? How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable? How accurate does it need to be? How should you deal with risk and uncertainty What is the best way to organize a forecast process? Do you need multiple forecasts? What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting? Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management. Praise for Future Ready "Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward" —Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC "Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one" —Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro "A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement." —Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting "In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market." —Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group
