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Author: Peter Sarlin
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 364254956X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 243
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Book Description
This book approaches macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of three tasks. The focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication into analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment. Generally, this book explores approaches for representing complex data concerning financial entities on low-dimensional displays. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. Accordingly, this book creates a Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), and lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. Beyond external risk communication, the aim of the visual means is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence.
Author: Peter Sarlin
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 364254956X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 243
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book approaches macroprudential oversight from the viewpoint of three tasks. The focus concerns a tight integration of means for risk communication into analytical tools for risk identification and risk assessment. Generally, this book explores approaches for representing complex data concerning financial entities on low-dimensional displays. Data and dimension reduction methods, and their combinations, hold promise for representing multivariate data structures in easily understandable formats. Accordingly, this book creates a Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM), and lays out a general framework for mapping the state of financial stability. Beyond external risk communication, the aim of the visual means is to support disciplined and structured judgmental analysis based upon policymakers' experience and domain intelligence.
Author: Mr.Ken Miyajima
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455201286
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
The Global Financial Stability Map was developed as a tool to interpret the risks and conditions that impact financial stability in a graphical manner. It complements other existing tools for assessing financial stability, and seeks to overcome some of the drawbacks of earlier approaches. This paper provides the motivation for the tool, a detailed discussion of its construction, including the choice of risk factors and conditions, a description of the underlying indicators, and a discussion on how the final assessment is determined. When applied to past events of financial instability, the Global Financial Stability Map performs reasonably well in signaling risks to stability, as well as in characterizing the depth of crisis episodes.
Author: Peter Sarlin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Mehmet Ziya Gorpe
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498312071
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 63
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Book Description
This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks’ large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral linkages. We develop a Contagion Mapping model fully calibrated with bank-level data to study the contagion potential of an exogenous shock via credit and funding risks. We find that tipping points shifting the euro area banking system from a less vulnerable state to a highly vulnerable state are a non-linear function of the combination of network structures and bank-specific characteristics.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781513559582
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The current report finds that short-term risks to global financial stability have abated since April 2016, but that medium-term risks continue to build. Financial institutions in advanced economies face a number of cyclical and structural challenges and need to adapt to low growth and low interest rates, as well as to an evolving market and regulatory environment. Weak profitability could erode banks’ buffers over time and undermine their ability to support growth. A cyclical recovery will not resolve the problem of low profitability. More deep-rooted reforms and systemic management are needed, especially for European banks. The solvency of many life insurance companies and pension funds is threatened by a prolonged period of low interest rates. Corporate leverage in emerging market economies remains elevated in some countries, but the current favorable external environment presents an opportunity for overly indebted firms to restructure their balance sheets. The political climate is unsettled in many countries. A lack of income growth and a rise in inequality have opened the door for populist, inward-looking policies. These factors make it even harder to tackle legacy problems and further expose economies and markets to shocks. A potent and more balanced policy mix is needed to deliver a stronger path for growth and financial stability, and avoid slipping into a state of financial and economic stagnation. The report also examines how the rise of nonbank financing has altered the impact of monetary policy and finds that fears of a decline in the effectiveness of monetary policy are unfounded. It appears that the transmission of monetary policy is, if anything, stronger in economies with larger nonbank financial sectors. Finally, the report examines the link between corporate governance, investor protection, and financial stability in emerging market economies. It finds that the improvements over the past two decades have helped bolster the resilience of their financial systems. These benefits strengthen the case for further reform.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616352477
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 94
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Book Description
The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
Author: The World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821388568
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 370
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Book Description
The countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have been recovering from the global financial crisis, but the recent political turmoil has interrupted the pace of credit and output recovery in many countries. The political turmoil in the MENA region reveals deep-seated frustrations and a sense of political, social, and economic exclusion, especially among the youth. The relatively weak growth performance reflects a combination of insufficient reforms and weak reform implementation, including financial sector reforms. The structural weaknesses of financial sectors imply that access to finance may remain restricted even with a full recovery of credit activity. Therefore, the region s countries face an ambitious reform agenda to revert two decades of relatively poor performance of output and employment growth. Financial development should be a central component of the region s growth agenda. This study reviews the region s financial systems, the severity of the limitations on access to finance, and the main factors behind such limitations. It goes on to provide a road map for expanding access and preserving financial stability.
Author: Thorsten Foltz
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 365627813X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : de
Pages : 41
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Book Description
Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2012 im Fachbereich VWL - Finanzwissenschaft, Note: 1,3, Universität Siegen, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Wirtschaftskrisen, sei es in Form einer Schulden-, Banken-, Inflations- oder Wechselkurskrise bzw. einer Mischung dieser, sind keine Ereignisse welche sich auf das 20. oder 21. Jahrhundert beschränken, sondern seit Jahrhunderten, in verschiedener Form und Stärke, in allen Wirtschaftssystemen auftreten. Schon im Spätmittelalter handelten die einzelnen Volkswirtschaften miteinander, der Geldverkehr war davon nicht ausgenommen. Es liegt in der Natur der Kreditvergabe, dass es zu Zahlungsausfällen kommen kann. Dementsprechend sind souveräne Staaten frühzeitig ihren Schuldverpflichtungen nicht nachgekommen. So konnte z. B. König Edward III. von England im 14. Jahrhundert nicht seine Schulden bei florentinischen Finanziers bedienen. Frankreich konnte zwischen dem 16. und 18. Jahrhundert in insgesamt 8 Fällen seine Auslandsschulden nicht bedienen. Griechenland befand sich zwischen 1800 und 2008 in 50,6% der Jahre entweder in einer Schuldenkrise oder in einer Umschuldungsphase. Argentinien, welches 2001 Auslandsschulden in Höhe von mehr als 95 Mrd. US-$ nicht begleichen konnte, hält bis heute den Rekord für den größten Zahlungsausfall. Im Zuge der Globalisierung sind auch bzw. gerade die Finanzmärkte eng miteinander verbunden. Besonders gilt dies für die USA und die EU. Aufgrund dessen konnte aus einer Im-mobilienkrise der USA eine globale Finanzkrise entstehen und führte zur gegenwärtigen Krise in der EU. Die Problematik einer Finanzkrise besteht in der Gefahr, die übrige Wirtschaft schädigen zu können. Bei einem gestörten Interbankenhandel kann es zu einem Liquiditätsengpass bei den Kreditinstituten und damit zu einer geringeren oder im Extremfall keiner Kreditvergabe an Unternehmen kommen. Der Einbruch der Weltwirtschaft, mit schleichendem Beginn 2007, wurde von nur wenigen Ökonomen prognostiziert. Das anschließende, teils unkoordinierte Verhalten der beteiligten Akteure, besonders mit Beginn der Krise in Europa, verdeutlicht die Notwendigkeit eines Systems, welches möglichst zuverlässig zukünftige Wirtschaftskrisen prognostizieren kann. Eine Möglichkeit könnte in dem Modell der Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) von Peter Sarlin und Tuomas A. Peltonen liegen. Die SOFSM ist eine SOM, die angewandt wird um den Zustand der finanziellen Stabilität abzubilden und Ursachen für Risiken im Finanzsystem zu diagnostizieren, sowie kommende, System bedrohende, Finanzkrisen im Voraus zu erkennen.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498324029
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 109
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Book Description
The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513569678
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 92
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Book Description
Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.
