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Author: Jan Schröder
Publisher: KIT Scientific Publishing
ISBN: 3866443447
Category : Business
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
Fraud and manipulation in prediction markets are systematic results of incentive incompatibility, which, if present, have to be detected and balanced. ""Manipulations in Prediction Markets"" gives a critical insight into manipulations that are most likely to occur in prediction markets. In a general approach the book discusses the issue of incentives in markets and the breakdown of the incentive system. On this basis a new way of detecting irregular trading behaviour is introduced.
Author: Jan Schröder
Publisher: KIT Scientific Publishing
ISBN: 3866443447
Category : Business
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
Fraud and manipulation in prediction markets are systematic results of incentive incompatibility, which, if present, have to be detected and balanced. ""Manipulations in Prediction Markets"" gives a critical insight into manipulations that are most likely to occur in prediction markets. In a general approach the book discusses the issue of incentives in markets and the breakdown of the incentive system. On this basis a new way of detecting irregular trading behaviour is introduced.
Author: Michael Abramowicz
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300144954
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 364
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Book Description
Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.
Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400880890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 567
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Book Description
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Author: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136715681
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 318
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Book Description
How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Author: Earley Vernon Wilcox
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Farm produce
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
Author: Jose Joy Thoppan
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1801173982
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 89
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Book Description
Developing an Effective Model for Detecting Trade-Based Market Manipulation determines an appropriate model to help identify stocks witnessing activities that are indicative of potential manipulation through three separate but related studies.
Author: Ning Chen
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642255108
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 430
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Book Description
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 7th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics, WINE 2011, held in Singapore, in December 2011. The 31 revised full papers and 5 revised short papers presented together with the abstracts of 3 papers about work in progress were carefully reviewed and selected from 100 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on algorithmic game theory, algorithmic mechanism design, computational advertising, computational social choice, convergence and learning in games, economics aspects of security and privacy, information and attention economics, network games and social networks.
Author: Frédéric Abergel
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316870480
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 242
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Book Description
A limit order book is essentially a file on a computer that contains all orders sent to the market, along with their characteristics such as the sign of the order, price, quantity and a timestamp. The majority of organized electronic markets rely on limit order books to store the list of interests of market participants on their central computer. A limit order book contains all the information available on a specific market and it reflects the way the market moves under the influence of its participants. This book discusses several models of limit order books. It begins by discussing the data to assess their empirical properties, and then moves on to mathematical models in order to reproduce the observed properties. Finally, the book presents a framework for numerical simulations. It also covers important modelling techniques including agent-based modelling, and advanced modelling of limit order books based on Hawkes processes. The book also provides in-depth coverage of simulation techniques and introduces general, flexible, open source library concepts useful to readers studying trading strategies in order-driven markets.
Author: Shoshana Zuboff
Publisher: PublicAffairs
ISBN: 1610395700
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 683
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Book Description
The challenges to humanity posed by the digital future, the first detailed examination of the unprecedented form of power called "surveillance capitalism," and the quest by powerful corporations to predict and control our behavior. In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in the twenty-first century just as industrial capitalism disfigured the natural world in the twentieth. Zuboff vividly brings to life the consequences as surveillance capitalism advances from Silicon Valley into every economic sector. Vast wealth and power are accumulated in ominous new "behavioral futures markets," where predictions about our behavior are bought and sold, and the production of goods and services is subordinated to a new "means of behavioral modification." The threat has shifted from a totalitarian Big Brother state to a ubiquitous digital architecture: a "Big Other" operating in the interests of surveillance capital. Here is the crucible of an unprecedented form of power marked by extreme concentrations of knowledge and free from democratic oversight. Zuboff's comprehensive and moving analysis lays bare the threats to twenty-first century society: a controlled "hive" of total connection that seduces with promises of total certainty for maximum profit -- at the expense of democracy, freedom, and our human future. With little resistance from law or society, surveillance capitalism is on the verge of dominating the social order and shaping the digital future -- if we let it.
Author: Alan S. Gerber
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 0815731221
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 354
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Book Description
The U.S. Constitution calls on the government to "promote the general welfare." In this provocative and innovative book, a distinguished roster of political scientists and economists evaluates its ability to carry out this task. The first section of the book analyzes government performance in the areas of health, transportation, housing, and education, suggesting why suboptimal policies often prevail. The second set of chapters examines two novel and sometimes controversial tools that can be used to improve policy design: information markets and laboratory experiments. Finally, the third part of the book asks how three key institutions—Congress, the party system, and federalism—affect government's ability to solve important social problems. These chapters also raise the disturbing possibility that recent political developments have contributed to a decline in governmental problem-solving activity. Taken together, the essays in this volume suggest that opportunities to promote the common good are frequently missed in modern American government. But the book also carries a more hopeful message. By identifying possible solutions to the problems created by weak incentives, poor information, and inadequate institutional capacity, Promoting the General Welfare shows how government performance can be improved. Contributors include Eugene Bardach (University of California-Berkeley), Sarah Binder (Brookings Institution and George Washington University), Morris P. Fiorina (Stanford University), Jay P. Greene (University of Arkansas), Robin Hanson (George Mason University), Charles A. Holt (University of Virginia), David R. Mayhew (Yale University), Edgar O. Olsen (University of Virginia), Mark Carl Rom (Georgetown University), Roberta Romano (Yale Law School), William M. Shobe (University of Virginia), Angela M. Smith (University of Virginia), Aidan R. Vining (Simon Fraser University), David L. Weimer (University of Wisconsin-Madison), and Clifford Winston (Brook
