Macroeconomic Policy Analysis for Regional Coordination in the ESCWA Region PDF Download

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Category : Foreign exchange rates
Languages : en
Pages : 56

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Book Description
Given the low level of economic integration within the ESCWA region, this study examines the case for increased policy coordination and, ultimately, the adoption of a common single currency. Such adoption is likely to succeed if optimum currency area (OCA) conditions are fulfilled. One of the key OCA theory positions is that business cycle symmetry among currency union members is necessary in order to carry out a common monetary policy. On the other hand, asymmetric cycles imply that different areas of the currency union would require different monetary policy responses. In order to achieve this objective, this report assesses the degree of business cycle synchronization in the ESCWA region. This is relevant for the purpose of providing a better understanding of the influence of important trading partners on business cycle fluctuations in the domestic economy. Moreover, it has an important implication in terms of evaluating costs and benefits of macroeconomic coordination. Following an evaluation and calculation of measures of intraregional trade (trade intensity) and economic structure differences, this report quantifies the relationship between trade intensity, economic structure and business cycle synchronization; and discusses how trade integration within ESCWA member countries is likely to shape future business cycle patterns within the region.--Publisher's description.