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Long-term Gain, Short-Term Pain

Long-term Gain, Short-Term Pain PDF Author: Marika Santoro
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513537636
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35

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Book Description
In this paper, I study the potential economic impact of the 2015-18 structural reform agenda in Chile, using the IMF dynamic general equilibrium model (GIMF). I find that the agenda has the potential to significantly increase Chile’s long-run GDP, although it may have some negative effects in the short term. Ensuring a smooth transition to a higher productive potential depends on three key dimensions: the credibility of the reforms, their effectiveness in closing structural gaps, and their speed of implementation. Badly designed reforms that remove only a very small fraction of the existing structural gaps, at a slow speed, and with little credibility, can greatly reduce the positive impact of the reform agenda on GDP.