Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach PDF full book. Access full book title Labor Market Dynamics: A Hidden Markov Approach by Mr.Ippei Shibata. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513519263
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 71
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its many-state extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.
Author: Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513519263
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 71
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its many-state extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.
Author: Mr.Ippei Shibata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498300456
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
Get Book Here
Book Description
Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.
Author: Gabriele Ciminelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484373723
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 72
Get Book Here
Book Description
Labor market deregulation, intended to boost productivity and employment, is one plausible, yet little studied, driver of the decline in labor shares that took place across most advanced economies since the early 1990s. This paper assesses the impact of job protection deregulation in a sample of 26 advanced economies over the period 1970-2015, using a newly constructed dataset of major reforms to employment protection legislation for regular contracts. We apply the local projection method to estimate the dynamic response of the labor share to our reform events at both the country and the country-industry levels. For the latter, we employ a differences-in-differences identification strategy using two identifying assumptions grounded in theory—namely that job protection deregulation should have larger negative effects in industries characterized by (i) a higher “natural” propensity to adjust the workforce, and (ii) a lower elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. We find a statistically significant, economically large and robust negative effect of deregulation on the labor share. In particular, illustrative back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that job protection deregulation may have contributed about 15 percent to the average labor share decline in advanced economies. Together with existing evidence regarding the macroeconomic gains from job protection and other labor market reforms, our results also point to the need for policymakers to address efficiency-equity trade-offs when designing such reforms.
Author: Peter S. H. Leeflang
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319534696
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 725
Get Book Here
Book Description
This volume presents advanced techniques to modeling markets, with a wide spectrum of topics, including advanced individual demand models, time series analysis, state space models, spatial models, structural models, mediation, models that specify competition and diffusion models. It is intended as a follow-on and companion to Modeling Markets (2015), in which the authors presented the basics of modeling markets along the classical steps of the model building process: specification, data collection, estimation, validation and implementation. This volume builds on the concepts presented in Modeling Markets with an emphasis on advanced methods that are used to specify, estimate and validate marketing models, including structural equation models, partial least squares, mixture models, and hidden Markov models, as well as generalized methods of moments, Bayesian analysis, non/semi-parametric estimation and endogeneity issues. Specific attention is given to big data. The market environment is changing rapidly and constantly. Models that provide information about the sensitivity of market behavior to marketing activities such as advertising, pricing, promotions and distribution are now routinely used by managers for the identification of changes in marketing programs that can improve brand performance. In today’s environment of information overload, the challenge is to make sense of the data that is being provided globally, in real time, from thousands of sources. Although marketing models are now widely accepted, the quality of the marketing decisions is critically dependent upon the quality of the models on which those decisions are based. This volume provides an authoritative and comprehensive review, with each chapter including: · an introduction to the method/methodology · a numerical example/application in marketing · references to other marketing applications · suggestions about software. Featuring contributions from top authors in the field, this volume will explore current and future aspects of modeling markets, providing relevant and timely research and techniques to scientists, researchers, students, academics and practitioners in marketing, management and economics.
Author: Russell S Winer
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811272247
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 848
Get Book Here
Book Description
The field of marketing science has evolved significantly in the last 70 years. Throughout its rich history, developments in this field have always been anchored on marketing phenomena that drew on economics, statistics, operations research, and related disciplines. This book reviews the accomplishments of notable marketing scientists in several research areas. It emphasizes both the role and the importance that pioneers in marketing science have had in the rapid development of this field and honors those contributions.This second edition of the book offers updates of the former chapters and six new chapters on emerging areas of marketing science including machine learning, field experimentation methods, and internet marketing. Combined with older areas of research like endogeneity, services, and market segmentation, this book provides a road map for the development of 22 areas of marketing science, which not only is useful from a historical perspective but also identifies important gaps in the literature which can provide an impetus for future research. As such, it provides an important resource for the main consumers of the academic marketing research literature: doctoral students, faculty, and marketing science practitioners in consulting firms and companies.
Author: Matthias Studer
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781013273841
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 298
Get Book Here
Book Description
This open access book provides innovative methods and original applications of sequence analysis (SA) and related methods for analysing longitudinal data describing life trajectories such as professional careers, family paths, the succession of health statuses, or the time use. The applications as well as the methodological contributions proposed in this book pay special attention to the combined use of SA and other methods for longitudinal data such as event history analysis, Markov modelling, and sequence network. The methodological contributions in this book include among others original propositions for measuring the precarity of work trajectories, Markov-based methods for clustering sequences, fuzzy and monothetic clustering of sequences, network-based SA, joint use of SA and hidden Markov models, and of SA and survival models. The applications cover the comparison of gendered occupational trajectories in Germany, the study of the changes in women market participation in Denmark, the study of typical day of dual-earner couples in Italy, of mobility patterns in Togo, of internet addiction in Switzerland, and of the quality of employment career after a first unemployment spell. As such this book provides a wealth of information for social scientists interested in quantitative life course analysis, and all those working in sociology, demography, economics, health, psychology, social policy, and statistics.; Provides new perspectives and methods for sequence analysis Focusses on the link between sequence analysis and other methods for longitudinal data, especially event history analysis and Markov models Stresses the complementarity of sequence analysis and other models for longitudinal data Applications of sequence analysis in a whole range of different domains This work was published by Saint Philip Street Press pursuant to a Creative Commons license permitting commercial use. All rights not granted by the work's license are retained by the author or authors.
Author: Gary S. Fields
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192692909
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 423
Get Book Here
Book Description
This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Based on studies of a range of countries in the Global South, this book examines heterogeneity within informal work by applying a common conceptual framework and empirical methodology. The country studies use panel data to study the dynamics of worker transitions between formal and heterogeneous informal work and present a comparative perspective across developing countries in Asia, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East. Each study provides a nuanced view of informality, dividing workers into six work statuses: formal wage-employees, upper-tier informal wage-employees, lower-tier informal wage employees, formal self-employed, and upper-tier informal self-employed. Based on this common conceptual framework, the country studies examine the distribution of workers across each of these work statuses, and document transition patterns across different formality and work statuses. The panel data analysed in each country study provide a basis for making statements about labour market transitions that are not warranted when using comparable cross-sections. The studies also examine the individual- and household-level characteristics associated with workers in each work status. Using these characteristics, each study constructs a 'job ladder' that ranks each work status, and then examines the characteristics of workers that are associated with transitions up (and down) the job ladder.
Author: Christos H. Skiadas
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030446956
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 448
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book provides theoretical and applied material for estimating vital parts of demography and health issues including the healthy aging process along with calculating the healthy life years lost to disability. It further includes the appropriate methodology for the optimum health expenditure allocation. Through providing data analysis, statistical and stochastic methodology, probability approach and important applications, the book explores topics such as aging and mortality, birth-death processes, self-perceived age, life-time and survival as well as pension and labor-force. By providing a methodological approach to health problems in demography and society including and quantifying important parameters, this book is a valuable guide for researchers, theoreticians and practitioners from various disciplines.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Statistics
Languages : en
Pages : 896
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Ramaprasad Bhar
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1402079400
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 167
Get Book Here
Book Description
Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.
