The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion PDF Download
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Author: Leonard C. MacLean
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814293490
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 883
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Book Description
This volume provides the definitive treatment of fortune's formula or the Kelly capital growth criterion as it is often called. The strategy is to maximize long run wealth of the investor by maximizing the period by period expected utility of wealth with a logarithmic utility function. Mathematical theorems show that only the log utility function maximizes asymptotic long run wealth and minimizes the expected time to arbitrary large goals. In general, the strategy is risky in the short term but as the number of bets increase, the Kelly bettor's wealth tends to be much larger than those with essentially different strategies. So most of the time, the Kelly bettor will have much more wealth than these other bettors but the Kelly strategy can lead to considerable losses a small percent of the time. There are ways to reduce this risk at the cost of lower expected final wealth using fractional Kelly strategies that blend the Kelly suggested wager with cash. The various classic reprinted papers and the new ones written specifically for this volume cover various aspects of the theory and practice of dynamic investing. Good and bad properties are discussed, as are fixed-mix and volatility induced growth strategies. The relationships with utility theory and the use of these ideas by great investors are featured.
Author: Leonard C. MacLean
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814293490
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 883
Get Book Here
Book Description
This volume provides the definitive treatment of fortune's formula or the Kelly capital growth criterion as it is often called. The strategy is to maximize long run wealth of the investor by maximizing the period by period expected utility of wealth with a logarithmic utility function. Mathematical theorems show that only the log utility function maximizes asymptotic long run wealth and minimizes the expected time to arbitrary large goals. In general, the strategy is risky in the short term but as the number of bets increase, the Kelly bettor's wealth tends to be much larger than those with essentially different strategies. So most of the time, the Kelly bettor will have much more wealth than these other bettors but the Kelly strategy can lead to considerable losses a small percent of the time. There are ways to reduce this risk at the cost of lower expected final wealth using fractional Kelly strategies that blend the Kelly suggested wager with cash. The various classic reprinted papers and the new ones written specifically for this volume cover various aspects of the theory and practice of dynamic investing. Good and bad properties are discussed, as are fixed-mix and volatility induced growth strategies. The relationships with utility theory and the use of these ideas by great investors are featured.
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Hill and Wang
ISBN: 0374707081
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 399
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Book Description
In 1956, two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible. Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge. Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market—and William Poundstone's Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.
Author: Aaron Brown
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118043863
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 437
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Book Description
An innovative guide that identifies what distinguishes the best financial risk takers from the rest From 1987 to 1992, a small group of Wall Street quants invented an entirely new way of managing risk to maximize success: risk management for risk-takers. This is the secret that lets tiny quantitative edges create hedge fund billionaires, and defines the powerful modern global derivatives economy. The same practical techniques are still used today by risk-takers in finance as well as many other fields. Red-Blooded Risk examines this approach and offers valuable advice for the calculated risk-takers who need precise quantitative guidance that will help separate them from the rest of the pack. While most commentators say that the last financial crisis proved it's time to follow risk-minimizing techniques, they're wrong. The only way to succeed at anything is to manage true risk, which includes the chance of loss. Red-Blooded Risk presents specific, actionable strategies that will allow you to be a practical risk-taker in even the most dynamic markets. Contains a secret history of Wall Street, the parts all the other books leave out Includes an intellectually rigorous narrative addressing what it takes to really make it in any risky activity, on or off Wall Street Addresses essential issues ranging from the way you think about chance to economics, politics, finance, and life Written by Aaron Brown, one of the most calculated and successful risk takers in the world of finance, who was an active participant in the creation of modern risk management and had a front-row seat to the last meltdown Written in an engaging but rigorous style, with no equations Contains illustrations and graphic narrative by renowned manga artist Eric Kim There are people who disapprove of every risk before the fact, but never stop anyone from doing anything dangerous because they want to take credit for any success. The recent financial crisis has swelled their ranks, but in learning how to break free of these people, you'll discover how taking on the right risk can open the door to the most profitable opportunities.
Author: Leonard C. MacLean
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814417351
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 941
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Book Description
This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).
Author: William T Ziemba
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN: 9813144386
Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages : 297
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Book Description
Great Investment Ideas is a collection of articles published in the Journal of Portfolio Management from 1993 to 2015. The book contains useful ideas for investment management and trading and discusses the methods, results and evaluation of great investors. It also covers important topics such as the effect of errors in means, variances and co-variances in portfolio selection problems, stock market crashes and stock market anomalies, portfolio theory and practice, evaluation theory, etc. This book is a must-have publication for investors and financial experts, researchers and graduate students in finance.
Author: Jiacun Wang
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 146155537X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 286
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Book Description
Driven by the request for increased productivity, flexibility, and competitiveness, modern civilization increasingly has created high-performance discrete event dynamic systems (DEDSs). These systems exhibit concurrent, sequential, competitive activities among their components. They are often complex and large in scale, and necessarily flexible and thus highly capital-intensive. Examples of systems are manufacturing systems, communication networks, traffic and logistic systems, and military command and control systems. Modeling and performance evaluation play a vital role in the design and operation of such high-performance DEDSs and thus have received widespread attention from researchers over the past two decades. One methodology resulting from this effort is based on timed Petri nets and related graphical and mathematical tools. The popularity that Petri nets have been gaining in modeling of DEDSs is due to their powerful representational ability of concurrency and synchronization; however these properties of DEDSs cannot be expressed easily in traditional formalisms developed for analysis of `classical' systems with sequential behaviors. This book introduces the theories and applications of timed Petri nets systematically. Moreover, it also presents many practical applications in addition to theoretical developments, together with the latest research results and industrial applications of timed Petri nets. Timed Petri Nets: Theory and Application is intended for use by researchers and practitioners in the area of Discrete Event Dynamic Systems.
Author: Lillian Turner de Tormes Eby
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0415876478
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 504
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Book Description
First Published in 2012. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
Author: Edward O. Thorp
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 248
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Book Description
Author: Johannes Voit
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3662044234
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 227
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Book Description
A careful examination of the interaction between physics and finance. It takes a look at the 100-year-long history of co-operation between the two fields and goes on to provide new research results on capital markets - taken from the field of statistical physics. The random walk model, well known in physics, is one good example of where the two disciplines meet. In the world of finance it is the basic model upon which the Black-Scholes theory of option pricing and hedging has been built. The underlying assumptions are discussed using empirical financial data and analogies to physical models such as fluid flows, turbulence, or superdiffusion. On this basis, new theories of derivative pricing and risk control can be formulated.
Author: David A. Freedman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139477315
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 459
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Book Description
This lively and engaging book explains the things you have to know in order to read empirical papers in the social and health sciences, as well as the techniques you need to build statistical models of your own. The discussion in the book is organized around published studies, as are many of the exercises. Relevant journal articles are reprinted at the back of the book. Freedman makes a thorough appraisal of the statistical methods in these papers and in a variety of other examples. He illustrates the principles of modelling, and the pitfalls. The discussion shows you how to think about the critical issues - including the connection (or lack of it) between the statistical models and the real phenomena. The book is written for advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students in statistics, as well as students and professionals in the social and health sciences.
