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Author: Máximo Camacho
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We propose a model to compute short-term forecasts of the Euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. In this context, we provide examples that show how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. [Resumen de autor]
Author: Máximo Camacho
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We propose a model to compute short-term forecasts of the Euro area GDP growth in real-time. To allow for forecast evaluation, we construct a real-time data set that changes for each vintage date and includes the exact information that was available at the time of each forecast. In this context, we provide examples that show how data revisions and data availability affect point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. [Resumen de autor]
Author: Maximo Camacho
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Ralf Brüggemann
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN: 3110510847
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 176
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Book Description
Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance. Economic policy makers base their decisions on business cycle forecasts, investment decisions of firms are based on demand forecasts, and portfolio managers try to outperform the market based on financial market forecasts. Forecasts extract relevant information from the past and help to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the future. The topic of this special issue of the Journal of Economics and Statistics is the theory and practise of forecasting and forecast evaluation and an overview of the state of the art of forecasting.
Author: Mr.Troy Matheson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455218995
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.
Author: Siem Jan Koopman
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0191506575
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 389
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Book Description
This volume presents original and up-to-date studies in unobserved components (UC) time series models from both theoretical and methodological perspectives. It also presents empirical studies where the UC time series methodology is adopted. Drawing on the intellectual influence of Andrew Harvey, the work covers three main topics: the theory and methodology for unobserved components time series models; applications of unobserved components time series models; and time series econometrics and estimation and testing. These types of time series models have seen wide application in economics, statistics, finance, climate change, engineering, biostatistics, and sports statistics. The volume effectively provides a key review into relevant research directions for UC time series econometrics and will be of interest to econometricians, time series statisticians, and practitioners (government, central banks, business) in time series analysis and forecasting, as well to researchers and graduate students in statistics, econometrics, and engineering.
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199875510
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 732
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Book Description
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
Author: Giorgio Gomel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642286380
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 284
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Book Description
This book takes readers on a unique journey across some of the most debated implications of the rise of the Chinese economy on the global scene. From the analysis, suggestions emerge on how to improve statistical tools to measure performance and to obtain more precise macroeconomic forecasts. Moreover, it confirms the suspicion that a governance model of firms that does not sufficiently encourage market competition may have significant costs in terms of efficiency for the Chinese production system. The analysis of demographic factors and of household savings gives further support to calls for a serious reform effort, particularly of the pension and health care systems, to utilize households’ savings more efficiently and equitably. Finally the analyses of Chinese and global trade underscore the need for a less superficial consideration of the implications of the Chinese presence in global markets.
Author: Management Association, Information Resources
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1466619465
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 2090
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Book Description
Industrial engineering affects all levels of society, with innovations in manufacturing and other forms of engineering oftentimes spawning cultural or educational shifts along with new technologies. Industrial Engineering: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications serves as a vital compendium of research, detailing the latest research, theories, and case studies on industrial engineering. Bringing together contributions from authors around the world, this three-volume collection represents the most sophisticated research and developments from the field of industrial engineering and will prove a valuable resource for researchers, academics, and practitioners alike.
Author: Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 45
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Book Description
This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning (ML) algorithms to nowcast GDP growth across a heterogenous group of European economies during normal and crisis times. Most of our methods significantly outperform the AR(1) benchmark model. Our DFMs tend to perform better during normal times while many of the ML methods we used performed strongly at identifying turning points. Our approach is easily applicable to other countries, subject to data availability.
