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Author: Mr. Kamil Dybczak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.
Author: Mr. Kamil Dybczak
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.
Author: J. H. Dos Santos
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Dmitry Gershenson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147554832X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 123
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Book Description
In 2011, following years of large-scale external imbalances financed by debt, Portugal’s economy reached a crisis point. To restore economic growth and credibility with international lenders, the country embarked on a difficult path of fiscal adjustment and structural reforms. By many metrics, Portugal’s 2011–14 macroeconomic stabilization program has been a success, but going forward Portugal would benefit from policies to reduce vulnerabilities, absorb labor slack, and generate sustainable growth.
Author: Alex Pienkowski
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513519247
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
This paper outlines a simple three-country macroeconomic model designed to focus on the transmission of external shocks to Portugal. Building on the framework developed by Berg et al (2006), this model differentiates between shocks originating from both inside and outside the euro area, as well as domestic shocks, each of which have different implications for Portugal. This framework is also used to consider the dynamics of the Portuguese economy over recent decades. The model, which is designed to guide forecasts and undertake simulations, can easily be modified for use in other small euro area countries.
Author: Cláudia Filipa Pires Duarte
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789729479724
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
Portugal: Selected Issues
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484311299
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
This report discusses key issues related to the economy of Portugal. Highly accommodative macroeconomic conditions have generated only modest growth in the presence of remaining structural impediments. In 2015, low interest rates, a weak euro, and low oil prices remained largely in place, allowing growth to reach 1.5 percent. The 2016 budget proposal appears insufficiently ambitious to put public debt on a firmly downward trajectory, with significant risks to execution. Bank balance sheets need to be strengthened to avoid further negative surprises and protect taxpayers. Envisaged labor and product market policies imply at least a partial reversal of structural measures introduced during the IMF-supported program.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Portugal
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
Author: Jongrim Ha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464813760
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 513
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Book Description
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484307739
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 94
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Book Description
This paper discusses Portugal’s Tenth Review Under the Extended Arrangement. The short-term outlook has improved and program implementation remains on track, notwithstanding another adverse Constitutional Court ruling. Stronger domestic demand is supporting a pick-up in activity and lower unemployment. The end-September 2013 quantitative performance criteria (PCs) were met, and preliminary estimates suggest that the end-December 2013 targets were also met. Risks to attaining the objectives of the program remain high. IMF Staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the tenth review and for waivers of applicability of the end-December PCs.
