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Author: Gohar Minasyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Author: Gohar Minasyan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38
Get Book Here
Book Description
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary empirical approaches of an augmented Phillips curve and structural VAR, adapting them to the data availability and country specificities of the Western Balkans, to analyze the inflation dynamics in the region. It finds that international food prices affect not only headline but also core inflation as well as inflation expectations. Further, inflation in the Western Balkans is not just determined by foreign shocks, and domestic factors, aggregate demand shocks in particular, have a significant impact on inflation. These findings imply a possible role for policies to temporarily limit an immediate and complete pass-through of international to domestic food prices while also stressing the importance of an appropriate domestic macroeconomic policy mix to keep inflation expectations anchored and safeguard credibility in the face of high inflation persistence.
Author: Valerija Botrić
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Inflation is one of key policy variables in the European Union. Keeping inflation below 2 percent is the main proclaimed goal of the European Central Bank. Monitoring inflation dynamics is even more important for the EU candidate countries, as it forms a crucial part of the so called Maastricht criteria. For Western Balkan countries, which have all experienced a hyperinflation period at the first phase of transition, inflation awareness seems to be even more relevant than in case of old EU member states. Although the recent past evidence has shown that the Western Balkan countries have gone through the period of mild inflation rates, the underlying instabilities of their economies might bring about yet another inflation spin.However, a literature on the determinants of the inflation generation process in the Western Balkan countries is, with a few notable exceptions, scarce. Even less is publicly available on the forecasting practices of the region's central banks. Since this variable is expected to be one of the most strictly monitored if and when Western Balkan countries realise their EU aspirations, the analysis provided in this paper will try to fill the existing gap in the literature.
Author: Alice Fan
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
This paper identifies and quantifies the drivers of inflation dynamics in the three Baltic economies and assesses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in fighting inflation. It also analyzes the macroeconomic impact of inflation on competitiveness by focusing on the relationship between wages and productivity in the tradeable sector. The results reveal that inflation in the Baltics is largely driven by global factors, but domestic demand matters as well, suggesting that fiscal policy can play a role in containing inflation. Also, there is robust evidence of a long-run (cointegration) relationship between (real) wages in the tradeable (manufacturing) sector and productivity in the Baltics with short-term deviations self-correcting in Estonia and Lithuania only.
Author: Mehmet Terzioğlu
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 1839624868
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 339
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Book Description
The importance of experimental economics and econometric methods increases with each passing day as data quality and software performance develops. New econometric models are developed by diverging from earlier cliché econometric models with the emergence of specialized fields of study. This book, which is expected to be an extensive and useful reference by bringing together some of the latest developments in the field of econometrics, also contains quantitative examples and problem sets. We thank all the authors who contributed to this book with their studies that provide extensive and accessible explanations of the existing econometric methods.
Author: Fozan Fareed
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Inflationary pressures have intensified in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 2021-2022, mainly driven by a pick-up in tradeable goods inflation. Despite this increase, inflation remained relatively contained as compared to regional comparators. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of inflation dynamics in the region, with a focus on external factors because of GCC’s high reliance on international trade. Using a Global Vector Autoregressive model with quarterly data from 1987 to 2022, we find that external factors such as the imported inflation from main trading partners, mainly driven by China, and nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) are the main drivers of inflation in the GCC region. Additionally, we find that the direct pass-through of international commodity price shocks such as oil and raw agricultural materials is somewhat limited, after controlling for trading partners’ inflation, which can be explained by the prevalence of subsidies and administered prices in the region. Overall, since external factors are the main drivers of domestic inflation in the GCC, an increased focus on diversification, promoting food security, and ensuring prudent central bank policies, including through effective liquidity management frameworks, can play a key role in managing this impact.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 81
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Book Description
The Montenegrin economy has rebounded strongly from the COVID-19 shock as private consumption grew, tourism recovered, and an influx of relatively affluent Russian and Ukrainian nationals due to Russia’s war in Ukraine has also contributed to growth. While debt-to-GDP ratios have improved largely due to nominal effects, fiscal weaknesses remain. After prolonged political uncertainty, a new coalition government formed in October 2023. Thereafter, a new Central Bank (CBCG) Governor was appointed in December 2023.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 58
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Book Description
The war in Ukraine is taking a growing toll on Europe’s economies. The worsening energy crisis has depressed households’ purchasing power and raised firms’ costs, only partly offset by new government support. Central banks in the region and the world are acting more forcefully to bring high and persistent inflation down to targets, and global financial conditions have tightened. European policymakers are facing severe trade-offs and tough policy choices. A tightening macroeconomic policy stance is needed to bring down inflation, while helping vulnerable households and viable firms weather the energy crisis. But policies need to stay nimble and agile and adjust should additional shocks materialize.
Author: Vitor Gaspar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475547900
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 548
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Book Description
Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.
Author: Luc Eyraud
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484350936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 132
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Book Description
Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog
Author: Mr.Si Guo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498319327
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.
