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Author: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781513561639
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Housing is by far the most important asset in Chinese households’ balance sheets. However, despite forceful and frequent government interventions, the rise in Chinese housing prices has not been contained as much as intended, a trend that has not been reversed by the COVID-19 shock. In this paper, we first provide some stylized facts and then a DSGE model (encompassing both demand and supply channels) to highlight the impact of a “slow-moving” structural vulnerability—financial market incompleteness—on China’s housing prices. The model implies that to eradicate the root causes of the rising housing price, policymakers need to go beyond the housing market itself; instead, it would be desirable to deepen financial markets because these markets would help channel financial resources to productive sectors rather than to housing speculation. This is particularly important in the COVID era because without addressing this structural vulnerability, the higher household savings and the government stimulus may fuel the housing bubble and sow seeds for a future crisis. The paper can also shed light on the housing markets in other economies that face similar vulnerabilities.
Author: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781513561639
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Housing is by far the most important asset in Chinese households’ balance sheets. However, despite forceful and frequent government interventions, the rise in Chinese housing prices has not been contained as much as intended, a trend that has not been reversed by the COVID-19 shock. In this paper, we first provide some stylized facts and then a DSGE model (encompassing both demand and supply channels) to highlight the impact of a “slow-moving” structural vulnerability—financial market incompleteness—on China’s housing prices. The model implies that to eradicate the root causes of the rising housing price, policymakers need to go beyond the housing market itself; instead, it would be desirable to deepen financial markets because these markets would help channel financial resources to productive sectors rather than to housing speculation. This is particularly important in the COVID era because without addressing this structural vulnerability, the higher household savings and the government stimulus may fuel the housing bubble and sow seeds for a future crisis. The paper can also shed light on the housing markets in other economies that face similar vulnerabilities.
Author: Richard Koss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484351460
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.
Author: Ding Ding
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484324811
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
China’s real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks of a sharp housing market slowdown. If house prices rise further beyond “fundamental” levels and the bubble expands to smaller cities, it would increase the likelihood and costs of a sharp correction, which would weaken growth, undermine financial stability, reduce local government spending room, and spur capital outflows. Empirical analysis suggests that the increasing intensity of macroprudential policies tailored to local conditions is appropriate. The government should expand its toolkit to include additional macroprudential measures and push forward reforms to address the fundamental imbalances in the residential housing market.
Author: Rebecca L. H. Chiu
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 0429796161
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 427
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Book Description
Recent rapid housing market expansion in China is presenting new challenges for policy makers, planners, business people, and citizens. Now that housing in middle-income China is driven by consumer choices and is no longer dominated by state policy decisions, housing policy issues in Chinese cities are becoming increasingly similar to those encountered in other global housing markets. With soaring prices and imbalances in housing supply favoring high income groups and housing demand driven by rising inequality in household incomes, many middle and lower-income households face worsening choices in terms of the quality and location of their housing as well as greater financial difficulties, which together can have negative implications for standards of public health. This book examines the impact of these changes on the general population, as well as on aspiring homeowners and developers. The contributors look at the effect on the widening of wealth gaps, slower economic growth, and threats to political and social stability. Though focusing on China, the editors also present discussions of specific policy design challenges encountered in Australia, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, the Nordic countries, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK, and the US. This book would be of interest to housing policy makers, as well as academics who are studying the social and political effects of the Chinese housing market.
Author: Stephen Roach
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300259646
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 448
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Book Description
The misguided forces driving conflict escalation between America and China, and the path to a new relationship "A timely, fluid, readable assessment of a testy and rapidly changing global relationship."--Kirkus Reviews (starred review) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world's two most powerful nations wouldn't have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America's alleged containment of market-based socialism, ignoring its failed economic rebalancing. In a hard-hitting analysis of both nations' economies, politics, and policies, Stephen Roach argues that much of the rhetoric on both sides is dangerously misguided, amplified by information distortion, and more a reflection of each nation's fears and vulnerabilities than a credible assessment of the risks they face. Outlining the disastrous toll of conflict escalation between China and America, Roach offers a new road map to restoring a mutually advantageous relationship.
Author: Bing Wang
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030490327
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
China’s economy has been transforming rapidly over the last 25 years. As a result, Chinese conurbations have changed remarkably, with cities expanding both vertically and horizontally, and the physical environment acting as a medium for unprecedented urbanization. This has provided vast opportunities for investors, real estate developers, and service companies, but also presents huge challenges—as traditional city spaces have been reconfigured, environmental risks and the volatility of real estate markets increased. However, as engagement with China is becoming strategically important for many, forming a synthesized lens through which to read China across the vicissitudes of its real estate sector bears historic significance. By offering an insightful framework and structure for understanding China’s variegated real estate dynamics, players, and markets, Understanding China’s Real Estate Markets codifies the principles and practices of real estate development, finance, and investment in China and builds foundations for future academic research and practical knowledge in shaping and engaging the urban environment within China and beyond.
Author: Pengfei Ni
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811309655
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 171
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Book Description
This book provides an in-depth analysis of China’s housing system and real-estate industry .The author weaves together the different elements of the real estate industry into a logically coherent whole, in which the relationship between the real-estate industry and the macroeconomy sets the background, the housing market forms the core, real estate finance makes up a necessary condition, public policy provides the guarantee and the housing system the foundation. The book constructs an analytical framework for the development of China’s housing system that considers a comprehensive range of factors, highlights the most important issues, and is soundly structured, logical and clear. By applying this framework, the authors present an overview of the past, present and future of China’s housing industry.
Author: MissMali Chivakul
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484337255
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.
Author: Xuezhu Shi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This paper finds a new "substitution effect" of housing asset growth on Chinese urban homeowners' childbearing decisions. Using the China Family Panel Studies and an exogenous local housing market boom as the shock, we find that every 10% rise in housing assets leads to a 0.104∼0.121 increase in newborn daughters and a 0.121∼0.143 increase in total new births over the next two years. Despite this, it has no significant influence on the number of newborn sons. In developing countries, children are always considered as assets to provide financial support to their parents' old-age life. However, rising housing asset values motivate property-owning parents no longer treat their children as assets. As a result, the gender difference in financial support to parents is less considered with the housing asset growth, resulting in less usage of sex selection techniques.
Author: Ding Ding
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484385373
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
In this paper we analyze the fundamental drivers of China’s residential investment as a share of its GDP. Our analysis indicates that the economic structural changes that led to rebalancing toward consumption were the key driver of the rising residential investment to GDP ratio in China. We project that residential investment would moderate from the current level of 9 percent of GDP to around 6 percent by 2024, and its contribution to real GDP growth would decline gradually from currently about half percent of GDP to slightly negative over this period, barring policy intervention. The decline in the growth contribution of residential investment reflects the projected somewhat slower pace of rebalancing going forward and the envisaged increases in labor costs due to demographic changes.
