Impacts of World Oil Market Shocks on the U.S. Economy PDF Download
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Author: William P. Curtis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Author: William P. Curtis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author: William P. Curtis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Author: Tao Wu
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437935583
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.
Author: Gbadebo Oladosu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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This paper evaluates the impacts of oil market shocks on the economy using a structural vector error correction model of the United States (US) economy. The model is estimated with quarterly data for ten endogenous oil market and macroeconomic variables. Supply and demand driven oil market shocks are identified by examining the pattern of their impacts on oil market variables and the real US gross domestic product (GDP). The implied supply/demand elasticities, and elasticities of the real US GDP to these shocks are presented. The estimated quarterly oil price elasticity of the real US GDP under the oil price shock has a range of -0.04 to -0.004 with a mean of -0.02 about three years after the initial shock. The impacts of supply shocks on the real US GDP are also found to be significant. The quarterly price elasticity of global oil demand to an oil price shock has a range of -0.06 to -0.02 with a mean of -0.04, and the global oil supply elasticity under the global oil demand shock has a range of 0.10 to 0.2 with a mean of 0.11. These findings show that supply, demand and non-systematic oil market shocks have significant price and economic implications, even after controlling for monetary variables. In addition, the findings emphasize that the impacts of oil market shocks are complex and that elasticities estimated from multi-equation systems are conditional on the responses of other model components. Future work will use the model to explore the economic implications of historical oil market events.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226278875
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 663
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Book Description
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475572360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Author: United States. Energy Information Administration
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author: Mr.Paul Cashin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475597150
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
