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Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451974205
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451974205
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 148
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145197423X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 128
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Book Description
This paper analyzes portfolio diversification, leverage, and financial contagion. It studies the extent to which basic principles of portfolio diversification explain “contagious selling” of financial assets when there are purely local shocks. The paper demonstrates that the elementary portfolio theory offers key insights into “contagion.” Most important, portfolio diversification and leverage are sufficient to explain why an investor will find it optimal to significantly reduce all risky asset positions when an adverse shock impacts just one asset.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451974558
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 116
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Book Description
This economic journal contains theoretical and empirical analyses of varous macroeconomic issues. The studies are prepapred by IMF research staff or consultants. Subjects covered inclulde balance of payments and exchange rates, monetary systems and policies, public finances, international trade, economic growth, and some sectoral analyses. The last issue of the year contains an index to the volume. Approximately 200 pages in each issue.
Author: Mr.Robert P. Flood
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781589062023
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 172
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Book Description
This paper examines sources of economic growth in East Asia. The conventional growth-accounting approach to estimating the sources of economic growth requires unrealistically strong assumptions about either competitiveness of factor markets or the form of the underlying aggregate production function. The paper outlines a new approach utilizing nonparametric derivative estimation techniques that does not require imposing these restrictive assumptions. The results for East Asian countries show that output elasticities of capital and labor tend to be different from the income shares of these factors. The paper also explores the compensating potential of private intergenerational transfers.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451973683
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589067959
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
China’s growth performance since the start of economic reforms in 1978 has been impressive, but the gains have not been distributed equally across provinces. We use a nonparametric approach to analyze the variation in labor productivity growth across China’s provinces. This approach imposes less structure on the data than the standard growth accounting framework and allows for a breakdown of labor productivity into efficiency gains, technological progress, and capital deepening. We have the following results. First, we find that on average capital deepening accounts for about 75 percent of total labor productivity growth, while efficiency and technological improvements account for about 7 and 18 percent, respectively. Second, technical change is not neutral. Third, whereas improvement in efficiency contributes to convergence in labor productivity between provinces, technical change contributes to productivity disparity across provinces. Finally, we find that foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on efficiency growth and technical progress.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589069129
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 244
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Book Description
This paper introduces a new database of financial reforms covering 91 economies over 1973-2005. It describes the content of the database, the information sources utilized, and the coding rules used to create an index of financial reform. It also compares the database with other measures of financial liberalization, provides descriptive statistics, and discusses some possible applications. The database provides a multifaceted measure of reform, covering seven aspects of financial sector policy. Along each dimension the database provides a graded (rather than a binary) score, and allows for reversals.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451974256
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the link between product variety and economic growth. It finds support for the hypothesis that a greater degree of product variety relative to the United States helps to explain relative per capita GDP levels. The paper presents an empirical study for South Africa, which indicates that there exists a stable money demand type of relationship among domestic prices, broad money, real income, and interest rates, as well as a long-term relationship among domestic prices, foreign prices, and the nominal exchange rate.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589064755
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451974167
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204
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Book Description
This paper analyzes contagion and volatility with imperfect credit markets. The paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of shocks impinging on the economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model in which domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Financial spreads depend on a markup that compensates lenders, in particular, for the expected cost of contract enforcement. Higher volatility increases financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital.
