House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles PDF Download
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Author: Todd M. Sinai
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
This paper describes six stylized patterns among housing markets in the United States that potential explanations of the housing boom and bust should seek to explain. First, individual housing markets in the U.S. experienced considerable heterogeneity in the amplitudes of their cycles. Second, the areas with the biggest boom-bust cycles in the 2000s also had the largest boom-busts in the 1980s and 1990s, with a few telling exceptions. Third, the timing of the cycles differed across housing markets. Fourth, the largest booms and busts, and their timing, seem to be clustered geographically. Fifth, the cross sectional variance of annual house price changes rises in booms and declines in busts. Finally, these stylized facts are robust to controlling for housing demand fundamentals - namely, rents, incomes, or employment - although changes in fundamentals are correlated with changes in prices -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Author: Todd M. Sinai
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 49
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Book Description
This paper describes six stylized patterns among housing markets in the United States that potential explanations of the housing boom and bust should seek to explain. First, individual housing markets in the U.S. experienced considerable heterogeneity in the amplitudes of their cycles. Second, the areas with the biggest boom-bust cycles in the 2000s also had the largest boom-busts in the 1980s and 1990s, with a few telling exceptions. Third, the timing of the cycles differed across housing markets. Fourth, the largest booms and busts, and their timing, seem to be clustered geographically. Fifth, the cross sectional variance of annual house price changes rises in booms and declines in busts. Finally, these stylized facts are robust to controlling for housing demand fundamentals - namely, rents, incomes, or employment - although changes in fundamentals are correlated with changes in prices -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Author: Thomas Sowell
Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)
ISBN: 0465018807
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Author: Calvin Schnure
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN: 9781451862195
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
Why are housing markets so prone to boom-bust cycles? The mortgage market structure prior to the Savings and Loan crisis contributed to the volatility in real housing activity which, in turn, amplified the volatility in housing prices. The subsequent development of a national, market-based system of securitized mortgage finance has damped this boom-bust cycle. We test whether deviations of actual housing prices from values forecast by a model based on economic fundamentals have responded to the change in financial structure, and find that pricing errors have fallen significantly since the mid-1980s. Tests of the relative importance of the change in financial market structure versus the reduction of inflation over this period indicate a primary role for market structure in improving pricing efficiency.
Author: Paolo Gelain
Publisher:
ISBN: 9788275538732
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Author: Edward L. Glaeser
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 9780226030586
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn’t fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.
Author: Fred Harrison
Publisher: Shepheard-Walwyn
ISBN: 0856833126
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 202
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Book Description
Not employment or inflation as argued during the Great Depression and years of Reaganomics, the mechanism that drives the business cycle is proven to be the housing and property market in this analysis of the instability of financial markets. The consequences of how neoclassical economics ignores the importance of land are presented in a discussion of the dot-com crash. Agricultural, industrial, and commercial property and the housing market are examined to suggest that policymakers must revise their treatment of land in economic decisions to avoid the next economic crash, predicted for 2010.
Author: William Miles
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The tremendous rise in house prices over the last decade has been both a national and a global phenomenon. The growth of secondary mortgage holdings and the increased impact of house prices on consumption and other components of economic activity imply ever-greater importance for accurate forecasts of home price changes. Given the boom-bust nature of housing markets, nonlinear techniques seem intuitively very well suited to forecasting prices, and better, for volatile markets, than linear models which impose symmetry of adjustment in both rising and falling price periods. Accordingly, Crawford and Fratantoni (2003) apply a Markov-Switching model to U.S. home prices, and compare the performance with ARMA and GARCH models. While the switching model shows great promise with excellent in-sample fit, its out-of-sample forecasts are generally inferior to more standard forecasting techniques. Since these results were published, some researchers have discovered that the Markov-Switching model is particularly ill-suited for forecasting. We thus consider other non-linear models besides the Markov Switching, and after evaluating alternatives, employ the Generalized Autoregressive (GAR) model. We find the GAR does a better job at out-of-sample forecasting than ARMA and GARCH models in many cases, especially in those markets traditionally associated with high home-price volatility.
Author: Thomas Sowell
Publisher: Basic Books
ISBN: 0786747552
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
This is a plain-English explanation of how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and the even more "creative" marketing of financial securities based on American mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up -- and then suddenly collapsed. The politics behind all this is another story full of strange twists. No punches are pulled when discussing politicians of either party, the financial dangers they created, or the distractions they created later to escape their own responsibility for what happened when the financial house of cards in the financial markets collapsed. What to do, now that we are in the midst of an economic disaster, is yet another story -- one whose ending we do not yet know, but one whose outlines and implications are explored to reveal some surprising and sobering lessons.
Author: Colin Caines
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Xuetao Song
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
Housing market is documented with several observations: considerably larger fluctuations in housing prices than in rents, correlation between housing prices and investment, lead-lag pattern of housing and macroeconomic variables. This paper constructs a two-sector housing model with home owning/renting heterogeneity and housing financial frictions to explain the observed facts in housing markets and to explore the interactions between housing markets, rental markets and mortgage markets. The model provides theoretical explanations to the housing boom-bust and the transmission mechanism of housing market fluctuations to business cycles. The paper predicts that house rent-price ratio correlates with expected house price growth and changes with temporary shocks in financial constraints and/or persistent changes in mortgage rates. Model extension suggests that home ownership is endogenously determined by down payment restrictions and aggregate shocks. The model matches with the empirical evidences observed in house market. The quantitative results suggest that the financial shock generates house price fluctuation considerably larger than rents, which explains the observed price-rent fluctuations.
