Hedging Long Term Exposures with Multiple Short Term Futures Contracts PDF Download
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Author: Anthony Neuberger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The paper analyzes the problem facing an agent who has a long term commodity supply commitment, and who wishes to hedge that commitment using short maturity commodity futures contracts. As time evolves, the agent has to roll the hedge as old futures contracts mature and new futures contracts are listed. This gives rise to hedge errors. The optimal hedging strategy is characterized in a world where contracts of several different maturities coexist. The strategy is independent both of the agent's risk aversion and, under certain conditions, of beliefs about expected returns from holding futures contracts. The methodology is compared with approaches based on dynamic models of the term structure. It is tested on data from the oil futures market.
Author: Anthony Neuberger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The paper analyzes the problem facing an agent who has a long term commodity supply commitment, and who wishes to hedge that commitment using short maturity commodity futures contracts. As time evolves, the agent has to roll the hedge as old futures contracts mature and new futures contracts are listed. This gives rise to hedge errors. The optimal hedging strategy is characterized in a world where contracts of several different maturities coexist. The strategy is independent both of the agent's risk aversion and, under certain conditions, of beliefs about expected returns from holding futures contracts. The methodology is compared with approaches based on dynamic models of the term structure. It is tested on data from the oil futures market.
Author: Anthony Neuberger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Short maturity commodity futures contracts can be used to hedge long term liabiliites. But the hedger has to roll the postion as old contracts mature and new contracts are introduced. This gives rise to hedge errors. This paper analyses the optimal hedging strategy in continuous time in a world where contracts of several different maturities coexist. The strategy is independent both of the agent's risk aversion and, under certain conditions, of beliefs about expected returns from holding futures contracts. The methodology is applied to the oil futures market and the magnitude of hedging errors is estimated.
Author:
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 9291316695
Category : Bank capital
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
Author: Li Shi
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
ISBN: 9781361310021
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This dissertation, "Long-term Commodity Procurement Risk Management Using Futures Contracts: a Dynamic Stack-and-roll Approach" by Li, Shi, 时莉, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: The procurement of commodity materials for production is an important issue in supply chain management. Effective procurement should consider both uncertain customer demand and fluctuating commodity price which, when act together, give rise to the procurement risk. To protect the bottom line, a manufacturer has to plan its procurement activities with special attention given to such procurement risk. Existing research has studied the use of exchange market-traded commodities in mitigating procurement risk. This study addresses the case of a manufacturer with long-term procurement commitments who wishes to hedge against the risk exposure by using long-dated futures contracts. In the commodities markets, however, long-dated futures are often illiquid or even unavailable, thus making the hedge ineffective. Alternatively, in a stack-and-roll hedge, the hedging positions are rolled forward in actively traded short-dated futures contracts of equal maturity until the procurement is executed. This in effect replicates the long-term futures contract in performing a hedge. This study therefore aims at developing a dynamic stack-and-roll approach that can effectively manage the long maturity procurement risk. The proposed dynamic stack-and-roll approach is inherently a discrete-time hedging strategy that divides the procurement planning horizon into multiple decision stages. The nearby futures are adopted as the short-dated futures as they are typically liquid. The hedging positions are adjusted periodically in response to the commodity price behaviour and updated information about the forward customer demand. For a manufacturer who wishes to mitigate the procurement risk as well as maximise the terminal revenue after the procurement, the mean-variance objective function is employed to model the manufacturer's risk aversion behaviour. Then, a dynamic program formulation of the approach is presented for determining a closed-form expression of the optimal hedging positions. Notice that the hedging policy is a time-consistent mean-variance policy in discrete-time, in contrast to the existing discrete hedging approaches that employ minimum-variance policies. In this study, the commodity prices are modelled by a fractal nonlinear regression process that employs a recurrent wavelet neural network as the nonlinear function. The purpose of this arrangement is to incorporate the fractal properties discovered in commodity prices series. In the wavelet transform domain, fractal self-similarity and self-affinity information of the price series over a certain time scale can be extracted. The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm is applied to train the neural network for its lower training error comparing with classical gradient descent algorithms. Monthly returns and volatility of commodity prices are estimated by daily returns data in order to increase the estimation accuracy and facilitate effective hedging. The demand information is updated stage by stage using Bayesian inference. The updating process are defined and adapted to a filtration, which can be regarded as the information received at the beginning of each decision stage. Numerical experiments are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed stack-and-roll approach. The results show that the proposed approach robustly outperforms other hedging strategies that employ minimum-variance or nai
Author: John C. Hull
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN: 9780131354180
Category : Futures market
Languages : en
Pages : 561
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Book Description
This new edition presents a reader-friendly textbook with lots of numerical examples and accounts of real-life situations.
Author: M. A. H. Dempster
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000784045
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 864
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Book Description
Since a major source of income for many countries comes from exporting commodities, price discovery and information transmission between commodity futures markets are key issues for continued economic development. Commodities: Fundamental Theory of Futures, Forwards, and Derivatives Pricing, Second Edition covers the fundamental theory of and derivatives pricing for major commodity markets, as well as the interaction between commodity prices, the real economy, and other financial markets. After a thoroughly updated and extensive theoretical and practical introduction, this new edition of the book is divided into five parts – the fifth of which is entirely new material covering cutting-edge developments. Oil Products considers the structural changes in the demand and supply for hedging services that are increasingly determining the price of oil Other Commodities examines markets related to agricultural commodities, including natural gas, wine, soybeans, corn, gold, silver, copper, and other metals Commodity Prices and Financial Markets investigates the contemporary aspects of the financialization of commodities, including stocks, bonds, futures, currency markets, index products, and exchange traded funds Electricity Markets supplies an overview of the current and future modelling of electricity markets Contemporary Topics discuss rough volatility, order book trading, cryptocurrencies, text mining for price dynamics and flash crashes
Author: Dragana Pilipovic
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071594477
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 530
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Book Description
The Latest Methods and Strategies for Successfully Trading and Managing Risk in Today's Volatile Energy Markets The updated Second Edition of Energy Risk presents an authoritative overview of the contemporary energy trading arena, combining the lesson's from the last decade with proven methods and strategies required for valuing energy derivatives and managing risk in these ever volatile markets. Written by renowned energy risk expert Dragana Pilipovic this revised classic examines market behavior, covering both quantitative analysis and trader-oriented insights. The book shows how to establish a modeling process that involves the key players_managers, traders, quantitative analysts, and engineers_and provides practical answers to energy trading and risk management questions. The Second Edition of Energy Risk features: Detailed coverage of the primary factors that influence energy risk Techniques for building marked-to-market forward price curves, creating volatility matrices, and valuing complex options Specific guidelines and tools for achieving risk goals New to this edition: three new chapters on the emerging energy market and marked-to-market issues; new material on energy-specific models, seasonal effects, and the derivation of the mean-reverting price model; and more
Author: Michael A. H. Dempster
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521584241
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 614
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Book Description
During 1995 the Isaac Newton Institute for the Mathematical Sciences at Cambridge University hosted a six month research program on financial mathematics. During this period more than 300 scholars and financial practitioners attended to conduct research and to attend more than 150 research seminars. Many of the presented papers were on the subject of financial derivatives. The very best were selected to appear in this volume. They range from abstract financial theory to practical issues pertaining to the pricing and hedging of interest rate derivatives and exotic options in the market place. Hence this book will be of interest to both academic scholars and financial engineers.
Author: John Hull
Publisher: Pearson Higher Education AU
ISBN: 1486013686
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 577
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Book Description
This first Australasian edition of Hull’s bestselling Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets was adapted for the Australian market by a local team of respected academics. Important local content distinguishes the Australasian edition from the US edition, including the unique financial instruments commonly traded on the Australian securities and derivatives markets and their surrounding conventions. In addition, the inclusion of Australasian and international business examples makes this text the most relevant and useful resource available to Finance students today. Hull presents an accessible and student-friendly overview of the topic without the use of calculus and is ideal for those with a limited background in mathematics. Packed with numerical examples and accounts of real-life situations, this text effectively guides students through the material while helping them prepare for the working world. For undergraduate and post-graduate courses in derivatives, options and futures, financial engineering, financial mathematics, and risk management.
Author: Alexander Eydeland
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471455873
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 506
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Book Description
Praise for Energy and Power Risk Management "Energy and Power Risk Management identifies and addresses the key issues in the development of the turbulent energy industry and the challenges it poses to market players. An insightful and far-reaching book written by two renowned professionals." -Helyette Geman, Professor of Finance University Paris Dauphine and ESSEC "The most up-to-date and comprehensive book on managing energy price risk in the natural gas and power markets. An absolute imperative for energy traders and energy risk management professionals." -Vincent Kaminski, Managing Director Citadel Investment Group LLC "Eydeland and Wolyniec's work does an excellent job of outlining the methods needed to measure and manage risk in the volatile energy market." -Gerald G. Fleming, Vice President, Head of East Power Trading, TXU Energy Trading "This book combines academic rigor with real-world practicality. It is a must-read for anyone in energy risk management or asset valuation." -Ron Erd, Senior Vice President American Electric Power
