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Author: Anthony Garratt
Publisher: Oxford University Press (UK)
ISBN: 0199650462
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Providing a description of the state of modelling in global and national economies, this title introduces an approach to modelling that can readily be adopted for use in understanding how economies work and in generating forecasts for decision-makers and policy-makers alike.
Author: Anthony Garratt
Publisher: Oxford University Press (UK)
ISBN: 0199650462
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Get Book Here
Book Description
Providing a description of the state of modelling in global and national economies, this title introduces an approach to modelling that can readily be adopted for use in understanding how economies work and in generating forecasts for decision-makers and policy-makers alike.
Author: Anthony Garratt
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191538019
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive description of the state-of-the-art in modelling global and national economies. It introduces the long-run structural approach to modelling that can be readily adopted for use in understanding how economies work, and in generating forecasts for decision- and policy-makers. The book contains a thorough description of recent developments in macroeconomics and econometrics, which should be of interest to advanced students and researchers, but is also written to be accessible and helpful to practitioners in government and the private sector. The long-run structural approach is illustrated with various global and national examples, including a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy. Throughout, the book emphasises the use of macroeconometric modelling in the real world and is written in a way that ensures the techniques illustrated can be replicated or applied in new contexts. The transparency and pragmatism of the modelling approach used within this book will be attractive to practitioners who need manageable and interpretable models to answer specific questions.
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author: S.G. Hall
Publisher: North Holland
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 440
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Book Description
This book arose out of research carried out by the authors in the period 1983-1987 whilst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. A number of things combined to impart the basic thrust of the research: partly the developments in formulating and estimating rational expectations models, and partly actual developments in the UK economy itself.An application of recent developments in dynamic modelling to a complete macroeconometric model of the UK is presented. Rational expectations modelling, co-integration and disequilibrium modelling are covered. The book also develops computational procedures for obtaining efficient solutions to large-scale models, and illustrates model solutions assuming rational expectations and stochastic simulations. Finally, sections on the analysis of models using optimal control methods illustrate applications of a large-scale econometric model. This section also discusses policy applications, including the derivation of time-consistent policies in the presence of rational expectations, giving quantified illustrations.
Author: Gunnar Bårdsen
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0199246491
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 361
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Book Description
This work describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting new insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.
Author: Markus Brunnermeier
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022609264X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 286
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Book Description
The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.
Author: Matthew E. Kahn
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513514598
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59
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Book Description
We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment.
Author: Władysław Welfe
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642344682
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 435
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Book Description
This book gives a comprehensive description of macroeconometric modeling and its development over time. The first part depicts the history of macroeconometric model building, starting with Jan Tinbergen's and Lawrence R. Klein's contributions. It is unique in summarizing the development and specific structure of macroeconometric models built in North America, Europe, and various other parts of the world. The work thus offers an extensive source for researchers in the field. The second part of the book covers the systematic characteristics of macroeconometric models. It includes the household and enterprise sectors, disequilibria, financial flows, and money market sectors.
Author: Glyn Wittwer
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811361010
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 223
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Book Description
This book deals with the economic modelling of water at the global, national and sub-national levels. It presents a multi-faceted analysis and, while it outlines the theories behind various models, its main purpose is to analyse policy issues and present insights arising from modelling, including a chapter analysing the macroeconomic implications of climate change. Arguably the most compelling reason for publishing a book on the economic modelling of water arises from the fact that agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of water used for economic purposes, while only contributing 4% of global income. Given that water is an essential commodity, this discrepancy may in part be symptomatic of an undervaluation of water due to immature and incomplete markets. In turn, this undervaluation has led to an ongoing misallocation of water. When economic models include water accounts that feed into production functions, they model impacts on the marginal product of water. Policies that improve the link between the marginal product and price of water will improve water allocation, while advanced economic models such as those presented here can enhance our ability to explore the possible impacts of improved policy.
Author: Lawrence Robert Klein
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0195057724
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 338
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Book Description
Each year, a number of different economic groups in the USA use their own econometric models to forecast what will happen to the economy in the coming year. This volume consists of chapters by distinguished economists comparing the different models now being used.
