Forecasting (Aggregate) Demand for U.S. Commercial Air Travel PDF Download
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Author: Richard T. Carson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We analyze whether it is better to forecast air travel demand using aggregate data at (say) a national level or whether one should aggregate forecasts derived for individual airports using airport-specific data. We compare the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) practice of predicting the total number of passengers using macro economic variables with an equivalently specified AIM (aggregating individual markets) approach. The AIM approach outperforms the aggregate forecasting approach in terms of its out-of-sample air travel demand predictions for different forecast horizons. Variants of AIM, where we restrict the coefficient estimates of some explanatory variables to be the same across individual airports, generally dominate both the aggregate and the AIM approaches. The superior out-of-sample performance of these so-called quasi-AIM approaches depend on the trade-off between heterogeneity and estimation uncertainty. We argue that the quasi-AIM approaches efficiently exploit the heterogeneity across individual airports without suffering from as much estimation uncertainty as the AIM approach.
Author: Richard T. Carson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
We analyze whether it is better to forecast air travel demand using aggregate data at (say) a national level or whether one should aggregate forecasts derived for individual airports using airport-specific data. We compare the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) practice of predicting the total number of passengers using macro economic variables with an equivalently specified AIM (aggregating individual markets) approach. The AIM approach outperforms the aggregate forecasting approach in terms of its out-of-sample air travel demand predictions for different forecast horizons. Variants of AIM, where we restrict the coefficient estimates of some explanatory variables to be the same across individual airports, generally dominate both the aggregate and the AIM approaches. The superior out-of-sample performance of these so-called quasi-AIM approaches depend on the trade-off between heterogeneity and estimation uncertainty. We argue that the quasi-AIM approaches efficiently exploit the heterogeneity across individual airports without suffering from as much estimation uncertainty as the AIM approach.
Author: Yafei Zheng
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351215493
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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Book Description
This book provides an updated, concise summary of forecasting air travel demand methodology. It looks at air travel demand forecasting research and attempts to outline the whole intellectual landscape of demand forecasting. It helps readers to understand the basic idea of TEI@I methodology used in forecasting air travel demand and how it is used in developing air travel demand forecasting methods. The book also discusses what to do when facing different forecasting problems making it a useful reference for business practitioners in the industry.
Author: Doris Chenguang Wu
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1000773442
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 327
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Book Description
This insightful and timely volume provides a succinct, expert-led introduction to the latest developments in advanced econometric methodologies in the context of tourism demand modelling and forecasting. Written by a plethora of worldwide experts on this topic, this book offers a comprehensive approach to tourism econometrics. Accurate demand forecasts are crucial to decision-making in the tourism industry and this book provides real-life tourism applications and the corresponding R code alongside theoretical foundations, in order to enhance understanding and practice amongst its readers. The methodologies introduced include general to specific modelling, cointegration, vector autoregression, time-varying parameter modelling, spatiotemporal econometric models, mixed-frequency forecasting, hybrid forecasting models, forecasting combination techniques, density forecasting, judgemental forecasting, scenario forecasting under crisis, and web-based tourism forecasting. Embellished with insightful figures and tables throughout, this book is an invaluable resource for those using advanced econometric methodologies in their studies and research, including both undergraduate and postgraduate students, researchers, and practitioners.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Aeronautics
Languages : en
Pages : 290
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Book Description
Author: Marc C. Gelhausen
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128126582
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 338
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Book Description
When predicting the future of air traffic development, it is imperative for researchers and planners to have the most accurate information about airport capacity constraints. Airport capacity constraints and strategies for mitigation: A global perspective analyses airport capacity constraints with empirical methods that forecast future capacities and capacity shortfalls. The book discusses in detail the importance of airport capacity constraints on air traffic development, especially for international hubs, along with mitigation strategies for already congested airports. It analyses empirical data to provide greater insight into the problems of airport congestion and capacity shortage. The authors present detailed global traffic forecasts for the years 2030 and 2040, and mitigation strategies for overcoming the problem of limited airport capacity. As expanding current airports becomes increasingly difficult, and time consuming – especially for hubs – the study of current and future airport capacity constraints becomes ever more needed. This book provides detailed information about how to correctly assess and quantify the problem of limited airport capacity, while offering strategies for overcoming these issues for a healthy global air traffic network. Focuses on airport capacity constraints in the global air traffic network and their implications for the future of air traffic development Features empirical and model-based approaches that forecast airport capacities and capacity shortcomings Provides over capacity mitigation strategies based on sound and reliable data and methodology Addresses capacity constraints at hub airports, providing insight into how to correctly assess and quantify limited capacity for these important players in the global air transportation network Applies econometric models for the implication of restraining factors on the future volume and structure of air traffic
Author: Ivan L. Pitt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461550319
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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Book Description
Economics of the U.S. Commercial Airline Industry: Productivity, Technology and Deregulation illustrates the impact of upstream technological change in capital goods (aircraft and aircraft engines) on demand, productivity, and cost reduction in the U.S. airline industry for the years 1970-1992. The aim is to separate supply-side technology push from demand pull in determining investment in aircraft in the US airline industry. The focus of inquiry in this study is at the company level, so the measures are sensitive to company differences such as financial costs, payload, and existing aircraft inventory rather than industry averages. This monograph builds on the new developments in econometric modeling and has a substantial technical component. The quantitative results lead to implications for understanding technology and its impact on the airline industry, as well as for formulating regulatory policy.
Author: Canada. Transport Canada. CATA. Policy and Strategic Planning. Statistics and Forecasts, Air. Forecasting Research
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. Subcommittee on Aviation
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 88
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Book Description
Author: William A. Barnett
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1801179204
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 177
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Book Description
Quantitative Analysis of Social and Financial Market Development is a crucial resource of current, cutting-edge research exploring the latest social and financial developments across Asia.
Author: Václav Snášel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3319009303
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 382
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Book Description
This volume of Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing contains accepted papers presented at WSC17, the 17th Online World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications, held from December 2012 to January 2013 on the Internet. WSC17 continues a successful series of scientific events started over a decade ago by the World Federation of Soft Computing. It brought together researchers from over the world interested in the ever advancing state of the art in the field. Continuous technological improvements make this online forum a viable gathering format for a world class conference. The aim of WSC17 was to disseminate excellent research results and contribute to building a global network of scientists interested in both theoretical foundations and practical applications of soft computing. The 2012 edition of the Online World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications consisted of general track and special session on Continuous Features Discretization for Anomaly Intrusion Detectors Generation and special session on Emerging Theories and Applications in Transportation Science. A total of 33 high quality research papers were accepted after a rigorous review process and are provided in this book.
