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Author: David Geltner
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119106451
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 258
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Book Description
Provides a revolutionary conceptual framework and practical tools to quantify uncertainty and recognize the value of flexibility in real estate development This book takes a practical "engineering" approach to the valuation of options and flexibility in real estate. It presents simple simulation models built in universal spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel®. These realistically reflect the varying and erratic sources of uncertainty and price dynamics that uniquely characterize real estate. The text covers new analytic procedures that are valuable for existing properties and enable a new, more profitable perspective on the planning, design, operation, and evaluation of large-scale, multi-phase development projects. The book thereby aims to significantly improve valuation and investment decision making. Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is presented at 3 levels. First, it introduces and explains the concepts underlying the approach at a basic level accessible to non-technical and non-specialized readers. Its introductory and concluding chapters present the important “big picture” implications of the analysis for economics and valuation and for project design and investment decision making. At a second level, the book presents a framework, a roadmap for the prospective analyst. It describes the practical tools in detail, taking care to go through the elements of the approach step-by-step for clarity and easy reference. The third level includes more technical details and specific models. An Appendix discusses the technical details of real estate price dynamics. Associated web pages provide electronic spreadsheet templates for the models used as examples in the book. Some features of the book include: • Concepts and tools that are simple and accessible to a broad audience of practitioners; • An approach relevant for all development projects; • Complementarity with the author's Commercial Real Estate Analysis & Investments—the most-cited real estate investments textbook on the market. Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is for everyone studying or concerned with the implementation of large-scale or multi-phase real estate development projects, as well as property investment and valuation more generally.
Author: David Geltner
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119106451
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 258
Get Book Here
Book Description
Provides a revolutionary conceptual framework and practical tools to quantify uncertainty and recognize the value of flexibility in real estate development This book takes a practical "engineering" approach to the valuation of options and flexibility in real estate. It presents simple simulation models built in universal spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel®. These realistically reflect the varying and erratic sources of uncertainty and price dynamics that uniquely characterize real estate. The text covers new analytic procedures that are valuable for existing properties and enable a new, more profitable perspective on the planning, design, operation, and evaluation of large-scale, multi-phase development projects. The book thereby aims to significantly improve valuation and investment decision making. Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is presented at 3 levels. First, it introduces and explains the concepts underlying the approach at a basic level accessible to non-technical and non-specialized readers. Its introductory and concluding chapters present the important “big picture” implications of the analysis for economics and valuation and for project design and investment decision making. At a second level, the book presents a framework, a roadmap for the prospective analyst. It describes the practical tools in detail, taking care to go through the elements of the approach step-by-step for clarity and easy reference. The third level includes more technical details and specific models. An Appendix discusses the technical details of real estate price dynamics. Associated web pages provide electronic spreadsheet templates for the models used as examples in the book. Some features of the book include: • Concepts and tools that are simple and accessible to a broad audience of practitioners; • An approach relevant for all development projects; • Complementarity with the author's Commercial Real Estate Analysis & Investments—the most-cited real estate investments textbook on the market. Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is for everyone studying or concerned with the implementation of large-scale or multi-phase real estate development projects, as well as property investment and valuation more generally.
Author: Eduardo S. Schwartz
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262693189
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 890
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Book Description
The study of investment under uncertainty was stagnant for several decades until developments in real options revitalized the field. The topics covered in this book include the reasons behind the under-investment programme.
Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030052524
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 408
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Book Description
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Author: Bruce Garvey
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031080076
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 316
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Book Description
This book argues that uncertainty is not really uncertainty at all but just demonstrates a lack of vision and willingness to think about the unthinkable – good and bad. The task of accepting that uncertainty is about exploring the possible, rather than the impossible has to be taken on board by strategists, policy developers, and political leaders, if we are to meet the challenges that an ever changing world is throwing at us. The term “unknown – unknowns” is ubiquitous, albeit the vast majority of future uncertain events do not fall into this category. However, it has been used to absolve decision makers from criticism post-event, whereas poor foresight is the prime culprit and that most future uncertainties are “known-unknowns” or “inevitable surprises”. This re-positioning of uncertainties can help mitigate the impact of such risks through better foresight aware contingency planning. The enemy is not uncertainty itself but our lack of imagination when trying to visualize the future – we need to transform our behaviour. To better understand uncertainty we have to deconstruct it and get to grips with its component parts. Three main questions are posed and practical approaches presented: What are the main structural components that make up the conditions under which uncertainty operates? What scenario lenses can be used when exploring uncertainty? What behavioural factors do we need to consider when analysing the human responses to uncertainty? Practitioners, having to deal with making better decisions under uncertainty, will find the book a useful guide. Endorsements for the book: "With this book, Bruce Garvey performs a great service for consultants, planners and, indeed, anyone whose job involves a degree of speculation about what will happen in the future. Through a comprehensive survey of methods, tools and techniques, he provides a practical guide to unpacking the uncertainty that besets all human endeavour. This is no dry academic treatise: it deals with highly contemporary topics such as “fake news” – part of a fascinating dissection of “dark data” – and how our biases and preconceptions shape our views. The book finishes with three case studies dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic, social mobility and inequality, and achieving net zero – all topics that are sorely in need of the critical thinking and analysis skills described previously. No one can completely eliminate “20:20 hindsight” from all business decisions but readers applying the lessons of this book may find themselves saying “if only we’d known...” less frequently." -- Nick Bush, Director - CMCE (Centre for Management Consulting Excellence) "Academic literature and practical guides to uncertainty management are disparate: this exciting edition brings it all together. Principal author, Bruce Garvey, recognises the erroneous attribution of many recent events to unforeseeable uncertainty (‘unknown unknowns’), calling these out as inevitable surprises (or ‘unknown knowns’), a category of uncertainty that is typically overlooked. Garvey describes critical dimensions of uncertainty, before examining scenarios and behavioural aspects, the latter being a ‘hidden influencer’ which is too often neglected. The guidebook contains a variety of methods, tools and techniques, including several that deserve more use, and contains a detailed glossary and reference list. Practical advice covers topics such as identifying weak signals for use in scenario development and overcoming cognitive dissonance. This well-structured and engagingly written guide should serve as a standard text for students, academics and practitioners across policy making, business, and industry." -- Dr. Geoff Darch, Water Resources Strategy Manager, Anglian Water. Co-Founder, Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision-Makers (AU4DM) Network "This is a valuable companion volume to John Kay and Mervyn King's Radical Uncertainty - and it is a necessary corrective to the physics envy of disciplines such as economics which achieve a false sense of certainty by creating highly plausible but unreliable simplifications of things through over generalisation - leading to simplistic proposals for interventions which can only rightly be judged through a lens of complexity and probability. I would like to be more optimistic about the ultimate effects of books of this kind - and in some fields, perhaps in military decision-making and defence I am quite optimistic. In such fields, people tend to approach decision-making through the assumption that things will go wrong, and that the effects of any mistakes will be very keenly, perhaps fatally experienced. In business and softer social policy-making, I fear the battle will be much harder. In such fields as politics and business, it is often better for the reputation "as Keynes remarked, "to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." In such fields, it is more important to make defensible decisions than to make good decisions, so an artificial sense of logical certainty will perhaps always hold an unhealthy appeal. But here's hoping anyway!" -- Rory Sutherland, Vice Chairman, Ogilvy Group "Here is a most insightful book, which holistically examines the ‘world of uncertainty', particularly as it impacts sense- to decision-making processes for many different stakeholders. Both scholars and practitioners, strategists to operators, soon gain from reading. Journeying from theory to practice, we embark on a comprehensive definition of uncertainty to subsequently become better equipped for its greater contemporary navigation when going forward, all elucidated by several well-structured scenarios and case-study examples. How uncertainty relates to risk (both qualitative and quantitative) is systematically charted, articulating their close interactivity. Forming a successful guide, this book has much enduring reference value and is therefore deserving of being readily retrievable as events and developments benefit from their improved understanding. Uncertainty can demonstrably be negotiated much more effectively. Alternative situations and conditions of denial, lamented as ‘we should have (fore)seen that’, no longer stand as acceptable when it comes to anticipating futures ahead. With this book, further help is now at hand." -- Adam D.M. Svendsen, PhD, International Intelligence & Defence Strategist, Researcher, Analyst, Educator & Consultant
Author: David Parker
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1003826237
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 338
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Book Description
This book provides an easy-to-follow introduction to the principal methods of property valuation in Australia within the context of International Valuation Standards, so bridging the gap between traditional property valuation methods and the modern era of global valuation governance. Providing a framework for valuation practice, the book outlines the property asset class, the role of valuation, concepts of value and valuation standards before focusing on the instructing, undertaking and reporting aspects of the valuation process. The market approach to valuation is addressed through the comparative method of valuation with the income approach addressed through the capitalisation of income, discounted cash flow and profits methods of valuation and the cost approach addressed through the replacement cost, reproduction cost and residual or hypothetical development methods of valuation. As an introductory textbook on property valuation methods, this book is a companion to Australia’s leading advanced valuation textbook, Principles and Practice of Property Valuation in Australia edited by the same author and also published by Routledge, which is a more advanced text considering key principles underlying property valuation and current techniques and issues in the practice of property valuation for major sectors of the Australian property market. The most up-to-date valuation text book for the Australian market, this book will appeal to both valuation practitioners and undergraduate/postgraduate students as well as to accountants, auditors, lawyers, lenders and all professionals dealing with property valuation issues.
Author: Peter Wyatt
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119767415
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 565
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Book Description
PROPERTY VALUATION The new edition of the popular ‘all-in-one’ textbook on the valuation and appraisal of property, offering a more international perspective on valuation practice Property Valuation provides a comprehensive examination of property valuation principles, methods, issues and applications of the valuation and appraisal of commercial and industrial property across investment, development and occupier markets. With a clear writing style, this easily accessible textbook presents valuation from the client perspective, offering balanced coverage of the theory and practice of single-asset pricing, risk and return issues. The updated third edition reflects significant developments that have occurred in valuation over the past several years, particularly the expanding internationalisation of the valuation profession and the growing interest in valuation practice in emerging economies. Greater emphasis is placed on international content and context, such as the challenges of real estate asset valuation in countries with developing market economies, to offer a more global view of valuation practice. Throughout this edition, chapters link the most recent academic research to practical applications, incorporate the latest professional guidelines and standards and address land and property taxation, compulsory acquisition of land, the valuation of non-market goods and services and key valuation challenges with a more international perspective. Addresses the key challenges faced by valuation professionals in a single, up-to-date volume Combines academic coverage of principles with practical coverage of valuation applications Incorporates consideration of non-market value, including countries where land is seldom sold yet has social and environmental value Contains a wealth of well-developed worked examples and classroom-proven teaching and learning devices Includes access to a companion website with supporting material for students and lecturers Property Valuation, Third Edition is an excellent textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses including real estate finance, real estate economics, property surveying, valuation and land economics in the UK, Europe and North America. It is also a valuable resource for early-career practitioners preparing for professional competency assessments as well as those studying property valuation and appraisal in developing countries and emerging economies.
Author: Patrick Lecomte
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000395030
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 237
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Book Description
This book introduces three innovative concepts and associated financial instruments with the potential to revolutionise real estate finance. The factorisation of commercial real estate with factor-based real estate derivatives is the first concept analysed in this book. Methodological issues pertaining to factors in real estate risk analysis are covered in detail with in-depth academic reference. The book then analyses the digitalisation of commercial real estate. The environment in which buildings operate is changing fast. Cities which used to be made up of inanimate architectural structures are growing digital skins and becoming smarter. Smart technologies applied to the built environment are fundamentally changing buildings’ role in cities and their interactions with their occupants. The book introduces the concept of smart space and analyses the emergence of ‘digital rights’ or property rights for smart buildings in smart environments. It proposes concepts and methods for identifying, pricing, and trading these new property rights which will dominate commercial real estate in the future. Finally, the tokenisation of commercial real estate is explored. Sometimes described as an alternative to securitisation, tokenisation is a new tool in financial engineering applied to real assets. The book suggests two innovative applications of tokenisation: private commercial real estate index tokenisation and data tokens for smart buildings. With factorisation, digitalisation, and tokenisation, commercial real estate is at the forefront of innovations. Real estate’s unique characteristics, stemming from its physicality, trigger new ways of thinking which might have a profound impact on other asset classes by paving the way for micro markets. Factor-based property derivatives, digital rights, and tokens embody how commercial real estate can push the boundaries of modern capitalism and, in doing so, move at the centre of tomorrow’s smart economies. This book is essential reading for all real estate, finance, and smart technology researchers and interested professionals.
Author: Anja Maier
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 303081159X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 1040
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Book Description
This handbook charts the new engineering paradigm of engineering systems. It brings together contributions from leading thinkers in the field and discusses the design, management and enabling policy of engineering systems. It contains explorations of core themes including technical and (socio-) organisational complexity, human behaviour and uncertainty. The text includes chapters on the education of future engineers, the way in which interventions can be designed, and presents a look to the future. This book follows the emergence of engineering systems, a new engineering paradigm that will help solve truly global challenges. This global approach is characterised by complex sociotechnical systems that are now co-dependent and highly integrated both functionally and technically as well as by a realisation that we all share the same: climate, natural resources, a highly integrated economical system and a responsibility for global sustainability goals. The new paradigm and approach requires the (re)designing of engineering systems that take into account the shifting dynamics of human behaviour, the influence of global stakeholders, and the need for system integration. The text is a reference point for scholars, engineers and policy leaders who are interested in broadening their current perspective on engineering systems design and in devising interventions to help shape societal futures.
Author: Stephen H. Kendall
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1351256386
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 223
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Book Description
Architects and healthcare clients are increasingly coming to recognize that, once built, healthcare facilities are almost immediately subject to physical alterations which both respond to and affect healthcare practices. This calls into question the traditional ways in which these facilities are designed. If functions and practices are subject to alteration, the standard approach of defining required functions and practices before acquiring facilities is obsolete. We need other starting points, working methods, and ways of collaborating. Healthcare Architecture as Infrastructure presents these new approaches. Advocating an infrastructure theory of built environment transformation in which design and investment decisions are organized hierarchically and transcend short-term use, the book draws the practice and research of a number of architects from around the world. Written by experts with experience in policy making, designing, building, and managing complex healthcare environments, it shows professionals in architecture, engineering, healthcare and facilities management how to enhance the long-term usefulness of their campuses and their building stock and how to strengthen their physical assets with the capacity to accommodate a quickly evolving healthcare sector.
Author: Stephen H. Kendall
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000456668
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 428
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Book Description
This edited collection provides an up-to-date account, by a group of well-informed and globally positioned authors, of recently implemented projects, public policies and business activities in Open Building around the world. Countless residential Open Building projects have been built in a number of countries, some without knowledge of the original theory and methods. These projects differ in architectural style, building industry methods, economic system and social aims. National building standards and guidelines have been promulgated in several countries (Finland, China, Japan, Korea), providing incentives and guidance to Open Building implementation. Businesses in several countries have begun to deliver advanced FIT-OUT systems both for new construction and for retrofitting existing buildings, demonstrating the economic advantages of ‘the responsive, independent dwelling.’ This book also argues that the ‘open building’ approach is essential for the reactivation of the existing building stock for long-term value, because in the end it costs less. The book discusses these developments in residential architecture from the perspective of an infrastructure model of built environment. This model enables decision-makers to manage risk and uncertainty, while avoiding a number of problems often associated with large, fast-moving projects, such as separation and distribution of design tasks (and responsibility) and the ensuing boundary frictions. Residential Architecture as Infrastructure adds to the Routledge Open Building Series, and will appeal to architects, urban designers, researchers and policy-makers interested in this international review of current projects, policies and business activities focused on Open Building implementation.
